Home Centre Vulnerability in 1901

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Home Centre Vulnerability in 1901

Postby markchina » 09 Dec 2008, 07:51

I'm in a game where Austria has just lost all three home centres in 1901. It got me thinking about home centre vulnerability in the first year of a game. I've included all the possibilities I can see, even those where a power would have to help an aggressor. I've placed the powers in order, from most vulnerable to least (in my opinion).

1. Austria - All centres are vulnerable. Italy can reach all of them, but only actually take two, since F Nap can't reach an Austrian centre in 1901. Germany can reach Vie and Tri from Mun whilst Russia can reach Vie and Bud from War. Austria is the most vulnerable, in my opinion.

2. France - Again, all centres are vulnerable, but from fewer directions. England can capture Bre, Italy can take Mar and Germany can take any French home centre, but can only hold two at the end of 1901. Mun can take either Mar or Par. Bre can also be taken if (in Spring) F Kie-Hel, F Edi-Nth, F Lon-Eng, A Ber-Kie is followed by a convoy (A Kie-Bre) in Fall.

3. Germany - All centres are vulnerable, but Kie only if Germany helps out by moving F Kie to Hel/Bal in Spring, then convoying in a Russian, a French or an English army - pretty unlikely, I think we can agree. Ber can be captured by A War or, much less likely, by F Kie moving to Bal in Spring then convoying a Russian army in Fall. Mun can be taken by Russia, France, Austria and Italy.

4. Russia - Mos can't be taken. Stp can only be taken with Russian co-operation (convoying a German army via Bal and Bot). However, War and Sev are more vulnerable. War can be taken by four enemy armies - two each from Germany and Austria. Sev is vulnerable to A Bud and, more likely, from Turkish A Smy and F Ank.

5. Turkey - Ank and Con are vulnerable to F Sev - the former via Bla and Arm, the latter via Bla. If the Spring moves involve F Sev-Arm, A Mos-Sev and F Ank-Bla, then Turkey can lose both Ank and Con by convoying the Russian Army Sev. Smy is safe.

6. Italy - Ven is vulnerable to armies from Mun, Mar, Bud and Vie - as well as F Tri. Rom cannot be captured and Nap is only vulnerable if Italy helps out by moving F Nap-Ion in Spring and then convoying an Austrian army via Adr and Ion.

7. England - Lvp is safe. Edi can only be reached with the aid of an English fleet in Nth. Lon is vulnerable to either French F Bre or French A Par if convoyed from Bre/Pic. Lon can also be reached if England helps with convoying a French or German army.

Comments, additions and corrections welcome. Just don't ask why I wrote this post ...
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Re: Home Centre Vulnerability in 1901

Postby Wellington » 12 Dec 2008, 03:34

Interesting analysis. It would also be interesting to see it continued for another year or two. As Turkey in 4407. Come all ye noobish (one of my first PDO games), I misplayed the opening so badly that Russia essentially bulldozered me out of the game by Fall 1902. I was surprised it could happen so quickly.
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