F/R/T potential

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F/R/T potential

Postby JP_the_DM » 17 Feb 2021, 00:41

Suppose a situation where Italy/Austria and Germany/England are at each other's throats. What's the potential for the Unholy Entente to pull through to a3 power draw. In a situation where that Alliance is winning who's the most likely stabber/stabee, what's the most likely 2 power draw? What's the most likely solo?
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Re: F/R/T potential

Postby HunsRus » 17 Feb 2021, 10:50

JP_the_DM wrote:Suppose a situation where Italy/Austria and Germany/England are at each other's throats. What's the potential for the Unholy Entente to pull through to a3 power draw. In a situation where that Alliance is winning who's the most likely stabber/stabee, what's the most likely 2 power draw? What's the most likely solo?


Let me start by saying that is very possible for France to pull off a 3 way draw in this alliance assuming it quickly seals up the respective stalemate lines in the Med and in the North.

But what usually happens is that the R/T uses France to sabotage Italy and England from behind. France, Germany, and Russia combine to dispatch England, which sees Russia with at least Sweden and Norway. In The South, the R/T takes out Austria fairly quickly, with Italy maybe getting Trieste and the R/T getting everything else + the Balkans. If France has gotten 3 builds in 1901, it can help R/G take out England, and attack Italy from behind at the same time. This gets Turkey out into the Med. This leads into who the most likely stabber/stabee is:

When England is dispatched, it almost certainly means that Germany has grown to a 5, 6, possibly 7 center power with a solid defensive position. Conversely, when Austria is dispatched, Italy likely only has 5 centers, and assuming the R/T holds, will collapse very quickly, especially if France attacks from behind. So, what you end up with is two fleet heavy powers in this alliance set up, France and Turkey, meeting each other in the Med and being unable to expand further. Neither one of them will really be in a position to effectively stab Russia at this point. So the most likely scenario is that the R/T keeps trucking along, with Turkey advancing into the Med, and Russia advancing into Germany as it has the luxury of not having to stab either France or Turkey until the very end. So this leads into the most likely 2 way and solo situations:

the most likely 2 way draw is that the R/T continues to steamroll and takes France out as well. Assuming France and Turkey have started fighting at this point, Russia has its pick of allies, and it's much more straightforward to continue on with the juggernaut steamroll than to turn on Turkey with France. However, even if Russia does stab turkey, it's probably to solo.

So in my opinion, the most likely stabber/stabbee is France and/or Turkey stabbing each other over the Mediterranean just by the nature of this alliance structure and the fleet requirements of both those powers. This in turn makes The R/T the most likely 2 power draw since it's very stable for those two and they've been coordinating much more with each other by that point than France has with either of them, and it makes Russia the power most likely to solo since it has its pick of alliances out of the remaining two and can also more effectively stab Turkey for the win at that point than visa versa.

I hope this helps!
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Re: F/R/T potential

Postby BrotherBored » 23 Feb 2021, 17:20

I pretty much agree with the post above. I'll add that if France has an explosive start, or Russia ends up unable to build northern fleets, or Italy walls of Turkey for a long time, France may be the power in position to attempt the solo.
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