2 Player Challenge Tournament Signups

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Re: 2 Player Challenge Tournament Signups

Postby TTBen » 28 Feb 2018, 03:02

sinnybee wrote:
mhsmith0 wrote:fwiw, part of the reasoning behind having the pools be full double round robin is that the format isn't really balanced between the two powers; Austria has an overall advantage, and a LARGE overall advantage among players who are new to the format (it's a lot easier to make sub-optimal moves as France than Austria, and a lot easier to punish mistakes when you're Austria)... which means that there's a fair amount of bias that can be introduced due to opponent levels.

My idea (I'm not suggesting we change anything in this tournament) also calls for an equal number of F and A games for each player.
IMO a/the top priority is having the best variety of opponents when wanting the best possible prediction of seeding per game played.

mhsmith0 wrote:For instance, if you're in a pool of 5 people, and you draw France against the top two opponents and Austria aginst the bottom two opponents, and only two players advance, you're basically gonna need to score an upset as France in order to advance, which IMO isn't super fair.

That wouldn't happen.
First of all, for the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd highest seeded players of each pool (pretournament seeding also likely determined by rating in the same way), they would play the same country for their highest seeded opponent as they would for their lowest seeded opponent. For example, seed 1 of the pool plays Austria against seed 2 and seed 5 (France against seed 3 and seed 4):

1A 2F
1F 3A
1F 4A
1A 5F
2A 3F
2A 4F
2F 5A
3F 4A
3A 5F
4F 5A

The 4th highest seeded player would have maybe a tiny advantage, playing Austria against their highest and third highest seeded opponents (France against their second highest and fourth highest seeded opponents). The 5th highest (lowest) seeded player would have maybe a tiny disadvantage, playing France against their highest and third highest seeded opponents (Austria against their second highest and fourth highest seeded opponents).

Second of all, this is probably how I would do it if the brackets were to remain as they are, with 32 or over 60% making it in.
So, there would be an average of more than 3 players per pool making it to the brackets and no one would be playing against their two highest seeded opponents as the same country for each of those two pool games.

If I were to use brackets for the rest of the tourney but to advance less than 32, then the amount of players per pool I would probably use would be an odd number higher than 5, with the amount of pool games played by each player being the pool size minus 1.

mhsmith0 wrote:My hope is that people are excited enough about the format to want to play all the way through, but we shall certainly see I guess.

If my memory serves me correctly, the last 2 player tournament on this site had some issues (as did the earlier one with Rick as TD). However, having a mostly open board and starting with 3 SC sounds a lot more fun and interesting than starting with about 10 SC. I am very optimistic about this tournament, since the FvA tourneys on WebDip seem to have been so successful, and since you and TTBen and others have put so much thought into this :)


I appreciate the thought and I certainly had some good advisors giving me thoughts from their experiences. I’ll share a few of my reasons....

While I use standard ranking as a basis for seeds I think that this is a dramatic enough difference from regular games that some higher ranked players will actually be not as good as their rating and some lower ranked players much better than their ranking, thus I wanted to maintain a balance as Smith noted above. Regardless of who was the best player in your pool you played equal games against them.

Secondly as we discussed this with leadership they wanted to make sure this was available to premium and non-premium alike and I agreed, it was brought up that non-premiums have a limited amount of games they can play at one time, so I designed a schedule so that they would only be required to play 1 game at a time. Part of that as well is that in order to not having a confusing schedule I had to keep even number of teams in a pool so that players weren’t forced to be on bye weeks during pool play.

The last point is the number of players advancing to bracket round. This one was pretty much my call as I didn’t have as much input but I felt strongly that without a strong way to seed players accurately I wanted to ensure at least 50% advanced to the bracket round but without a ton of byes so I set a guideline to no more than 75% advance but try to stick to 16 or 32 players if possible and where only pool winners could get byes if they existed (in the end they weren’t needed)
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Re: 2 Player Challenge Tournament Signups

Postby mhsmith0 » 28 Feb 2018, 23:51

thewysecat wrote:$5 on sinnybee to crush you all

Wyse


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Re: 2 Player Challenge Tournament Signups

Postby ccloughley » 01 Mar 2018, 02:25

How long does France have to last for? Until 1907? 1908?
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Re: 2 Player Challenge Tournament Signups

Postby Fatmo » 01 Mar 2018, 02:30

As far as I can tell, France has to either get to 18 or stop Austria from getting to 18 by the end of 1912.

So 1912.
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Re: 2 Player Challenge Tournament Signups

Postby mhsmith0 » 01 Mar 2018, 03:03

If France can achieve a stable 17, it’s just running out the clock to win tbh.
Also the nature of the geography and build powers makes France better able to achieve stable lines IF France can weather austria’s initial edge in distance to major centers and growth rate.

In particular, France can leverage naval power up north since Austria can’t ever get fleets up there (and if austria cracks MAO that’s basically gg by itself). France can also contest Tunis if needed more often than not IF it can get enough fleets there quickly enough.
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Re: 2 Player Challenge Tournament Signups

Postby Fatmo » 01 Mar 2018, 03:24

In your experience, would you say that, given a lot of games, France and Austria tend to win equal amounts? Or how much more often is it reasonable to expect Austria to win?
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Re: 2 Player Challenge Tournament Signups

Postby mhsmith0 » 01 Mar 2018, 03:33

I think it depends heavily on the experience if the players involved.

When you have a lot of experience in the game, apparently France does pretty adequately, my sense is at least 40% maybe 45%+? (At the highest levels, the most popular French opening, Belgian waffle (ENG/BUR/PIC) matches up well against the most popular Austrian opening anti-alpine (TRIVEN/TYR/GAL) which helps too)

And for players newer to the format, austria tends to crush, mainly because it’s easier to make crushing mistakes as France, whereas even a decent % of suboptimal moves by Austria are recoverable (for instance, Austria can INTENTIONALLY not contest Germany, which if France does that is a game ending error)
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Re: 2 Player Challenge Tournament Signups

Postby Fatmo » 01 Mar 2018, 03:58

Tri/Tyr/Gal? Wait how is that a thing? That would be Bud-Gal, Vienna-Tyrolia, and Trieste holds? Surely that must be a typo?

I think I can see what you're saying about Austria perhaps being more able to get away with mistakes early on.
Last edited by Fatmo on 01 Mar 2018, 05:34, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2 Player Challenge Tournament Signups

Postby mhsmith0 » 01 Mar 2018, 04:03

Loltypos, meant tri-Venice
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Re: 2 Player Challenge Tournament Signups

Postby Jensen » 01 Mar 2018, 08:18

Pre-tournament I think the head to head on this site was roughly Austria 47 against France 42. Generally I think the advantage for 1 on 1 ignoring age of empires and fog of war variety are:
R > A > F > G > I > T > E.
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