AAR 2pc Tourney Final mhsmith0 vs condude1

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Re: AAR 2pc Tourney Final mhsmith0 vs condude1

Postby mhsmith0 » 26 Nov 2018, 20:17

I think I'm going to take a minute and talk about why the position at the end of 1902 in my Austria game
Image
was strong enough that I considered myself way ahead.

The obvious portion is that I'm a build up (which means that I should get some kind of advantage somewhere by pure numbers, even if it's not exactly obvious how/where/why), but there's a bit more to it in particular:

1) F Brest
Defending MAO is absolutely vital for France in this game, to the point where it's basically just over if Austria takes it (Austria can grab an extra English center, force the French Brest fleet build to stay put, actively attack/influence Scandinavia, etc). Moreover, if F Brest heads north to influence Scandinavia, then I'll have time to set up a defensive perimeter around Tunis by spamming fleet builds:
Fleet A gets into WMED in 1902 and it'll take a while to expel
Fleet B gets into ION in 1902, and TYS or TUN in 1903
Fleet C gets into ION in 1903, and can probably force TYS in 1904 and potentially pop back to Rome to influence/support/attack TYS
Fleet D hangs out in ION from 1904 on
(and I slap down an army in Tus with Venice supporting it - essentially the Pie army moves down there at some point when it's convenient to do so)
Long run I'm looking at
Fleet A in TYS
Fleet B in TUN
Fleet C in ROM
Fleet D in ION
and armies E and F in Tus/VEN
That's a full stalemate position around Tunis unless France sends F Brest south to help, and even given said help, it's no gimme to stop because:

2) A Pie
This unit is destined to be a major pain in the ass for France, and there's no way to expel it for quite some time. Every fall, it'll have the ability to take something like a 50-50 guess to stop a French build (support one of the French units trying to bounce, or take a shot at occupying Marseilles outright which is obviously a completely crushing blow). Any French plan to win the south and take/hold Tunis involves spamming fleet builds in Mar, and that requires winning some coin flips.

3) Scandinavia
France will be in trouble in Scandinavia for a while, because I'll have two armies and France will have just the one navy. This means STP is in my hands in 1903, and from there on I can contest Norway and Sweden. If France takes Sweden instead of Norway with the fleet in 1903 (a somewhat non-obvious move btw), he'll need to win TWO coin flips against my STP army - I can go STP-FIN or STP-NOR with A MOS backfilling into STP, France needs to stop that movement twice before he can get into NTH and then defend NOR-SWE... and it's actually worse than that for France, because I ALSO have the option of simply holding A STP in the spring, so you're now looking at:
Spring: F Swe-Nor only beats A STP-Nor and loses to A STP H or STP-Fin; F Swe-Fin only beats A STP-Fin and loses to A STP H or STP-Nor; F Swe H only beats A STP H and loses to A STP-Nor or A STP-Fin
Fall: holding no longer makes sense for Austria because F Brest will get into NTH that turn, so it's picking Norway or Finland to coin flip against (A FIN/STP against F NTH/NOR mainly just pops up another round of coin flips in the north, plus forcing F BAL to be unoccupied for a long while)
of course, A Kiel going north would help in Scandinavia, but that can't happen because of:

4) Germany
A Berlin prevents France from credibly threatening to move Kiel north, because Ber-Kiel either bounces (preventing A Mun from being useful, and preventing France from taking Berlin in 1903) or takes it outright (obviously a disaster for France). A Bud-Gal is intended for Rumania, but if Berlin can be defended it'll go to Silesia instead, and since F Bal is hard to arrange, A Ber should be safe for quite a while, and just as importantly, only three armies in the center means that I can credibly threaten Munich as well.
So instead France will probably just retake Berlin in the spring of 1903. That will put four armies into the center, potentially enough to hold Munich and Berlin, but in order to actually hold them and not be subject to unending coin flips, you actually need five (since I can get into PRU/SIL/BOH/TYR and attack Berlin and Munich, and France needs to win coin flips around the Kiel army until he gets armies into all of KIE/RUH/BUR, or until he gets a fleet into BAL).

And the thing is, Austria only needs to keep a hold of ONE of Tunis/Berlin/Munich along with STP (which is pretty much guaranteed in my hands until like 1906 given the board) in order to hit 18 and win.

So basically, it's a lose-able position for Austria, but actually losing it requires some blunders or a whole bunch of French lucky guesses.

Also: France will have to start making moves designed to create builds in order to keep up pressure on Tunis and get the navy into Scandinavia and avoid being stuck with just four armies in Germany, and to do that means taking some risks over the next couple years (like putting the Norway fleet into Sweden and accepting coin flip risk against my A STP; or moving a German army into Denmark; or using the southern fleets to take SPA/POR instead of pushing harder on Tunis; etc).

Meanwhile on my end, I'm going to fairly easily be able to afford to send 1903's army builds in Bud and maybe Vie down south to grab those centers, while having strong odds of being able to force a big wall to the east of Munich/Berlin. There's a slight risk of losing Warsaw, but on the flip side I have decent odds of destroying a French army or two if he gets aggressive in that region (which is what ended up happening btw). France needs to play an extremely good, maybe even near-perfect game to hold onto Mun/Ber and retake Tunis and avoid losing control of Nor/Swe even if briefly (brief should be enough for me to get to 18 temporarily).
Also I'll note that the Versailles line (or MSL if you prefer) requires 15 western units. In order to get 15 builds, he'll need to take at least one of Por/LVP/EDI, but all of those centers require French units to move out of position even if temporarily, which very likely gives me options for attacking.
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Re: AAR 2pc Tourney Final mhsmith0 vs condude1

Postby condude1 » 29 Nov 2018, 09:16

I'll post an actual AAR later this month - exams have all my time right now.

I'll just point out that my French game I didn't feel bad about until much later. I think I hold Mun and Ber fairly easily (I would have if I didn't get overambitious and get one of the key defenders destroyed), and Tunis can fall before Austria solos in many lines. I think my major mistake that game came later, pushing forward towards Warsaw/Stp instead of consolidating and trying to win Tunis.
Telleo wrote:I don't think I've ever met someone who more perfectly embodied Chaotic Neutral than Condude1.


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Re: AAR 2pc Tourney Final mhsmith0 vs condude1

Postby mhsmith0 » 29 Nov 2018, 20:20

condude1 wrote:I'll post an actual AAR later this month - exams have all my time right now.

I'll just point out that my French game I didn't feel bad about until much later. I think I hold Mun and Ber fairly easily (I would have if I didn't get overambitious and get one of the key defenders destroyed), and Tunis can fall before Austria solos in many lines. I think my major mistake that game came later, pushing forward towards Warsaw/Stp instead of consolidating and trying to win Tunis.


I'd agree that pushing past Munich/Berlin was an error, but I think that generally, you're in a bind because my two northern armies (MOS/STP in fall 1902) can create a bunch of coin flip attacks against Norway or Sweden until/unless you get a fleet into NTH. And you can't send your 1902 F Brest build up north without completely abandoning Tunis (which loses the game), and if you send your 1903 F Brest build up north (and even then I should get at least one coin flip chance at Nor or Swe), you're going to be in a tough spot in terms of retaking Tunis
Image
That was winter 1903 where you won the coin flip on Marseilles. Because you won that coin flip (enabling build F Mar) AND you sent your 1903 F Brest build fleet south, you were able to contest Tunis, but that came at the cost of weakness in Scandinavia (partially overcome by sending a German army north, but of course that then created weakness in your German frontline, which was exacerbated by pushing forward and overextending, but existed even without that move)

I think it was a winnable position on your end if you basically crush it in terms of coin flips, but it's overall (imo) a very difficult position for you, and you're probably a coin flip or two away from a fully lost position

In particular, looking at fall 1903 around Marseilles,

Image

If I hold A Pie, you're stuck with an army in Marseilles that's almost completely useless to you, tossing me out of GOL is a massive undertaking in its own right, and you probably have to shove F Brest builds south indefinitely just to hold MAO and Iberia much less contest Tunis, and the position is basically won barring extreme screwups on my end (and obviously the other end of it, where I get into Marseilles, is even more of a gg thing)
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