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PDL 1. Round 3 Game 3. AAR

PostPosted: 19 Jul 2018, 12:13
by mjparrett
ENGLAND (rd45)
FRANCE (Pootleflump) SOLO WIN
ITALY (WarSmith)
AUSTRIA (BlunderCity)
TURKEY (JimBobicus replaced by mhsmith0)
RUSSIA (bdferris1)

Massive congratulations to Pootleflump who takes the second solo of PDL 1, and cements her place at the top of the leaderboard. She has been made bookies favourite to take the inaugural PDL title. All will be revealed in round 4.

Please post your comments on the game here. Ideally can we leave the JimBobicus chat to a minimum as that has been dealt with, and just talk about the game/tactics in play.

Re: PDL 1. Round 3 Game 3. AAR

PostPosted: 19 Jul 2018, 13:11
by Don Juan of Austria
Game number is 144119.
Congrats Pootle! :D

Re: PDL 1. Round 3 Game 3. AAR

PostPosted: 19 Jul 2018, 16:52
by sinnybee

Re: PDL 1. Round 3 Game 3. AAR

PostPosted: 19 Jul 2018, 19:26
by mjparrett
To be fair I have been busy in real life! And I was kinda hoping people would start up the aars themselves....

But enough from me. Over to the players themselves. The lights dim, the audience holds their collective breath. Pootle steps to the stage....

Re: PDL 1. Round 3 Game 3. AAR

PostPosted: 19 Jul 2018, 23:20
by WarSmith
Congrats Pootle!

Re: PDL 1. Round 3 Game 3. AAR

PostPosted: 20 Jul 2018, 00:02
by V
WarSmith wrote:Congrats Pootle!


Re: PDL 1. Round 3 Game 3. AAR

PostPosted: 20 Jul 2018, 01:01
by mhsmith0
Congrats Pootle!

smith's AAR:

1) I come in hoping to break up EFG, EF stab Germany that season
2) I shitpost and flirt with France
3) England stabs me by occupying Sevastopol after giving permission to move to Ukraine
4) I shitpost and flirt with France
5) England stabs me again by occupying Ukraine right after promising not to do so, also lets France into Bulgaria even though that puts France at a huge numbers advantage and gives her a really easy solo chance
6) I shitpost and flirt with France
7) I ask England whether he's really ok with the solo France is about to have, he more or less tells me "na bro we're totally chopping it, we even agreed in S01!"
8) I shitpost and flirt with France
9) Germany and I conspire throw the game to France, I make sure she gets it with room to spare (thus reducing the carebear temptation) by giving her Greece freely, because what do i care, I'm not up for tiebreaker points :P

The end :P
(I'd have probably worked harder this game, though I STILL sent quite a few messages imo, but England had no real interest in substantive discussion, France wanted to flirt and shitpost more than talk turkey [which is fine btw, it was fun!], and Germany only felt like talking after he'd been stabbed by EF and needed me more than I needed him)
also lolsmithlazy :P
also I had some RL stuff preventing me from EFFORTING this game, plus it's always much harder to have the WIM in a late game situation where you're either in the "in kids" group or you're not, and there really isn't anything you can DO about that per se *shrugs*

Probably also worth noting that this sort of game development is exactly why in my PDL 2 game, I worked so damn hard as Italy to stitch Russia and Germany together to prevent EF from steamrolling. A growing EF is HORRIBLE for IRG, and provides Turkey with ample opportunity to stab Russia and (if it's a WT) Austria for short-term gains (which only work out if it's really EFT, and/or Turkey plans to 2-way with just one of E/F).

PS Props to Pootle for the season when England stabbed me over Sev, to yell at us both as if EFT was an actual thing isntead of just EF; I think plenty of people just don't bother in that spot, but it's the sort of action that builds some goodwill and makes it likelier that I'll choose to throw it to her instead of the other guy if/when I'm reduced to king- (or in this case queen-) maker.

PPS game link ... _id=144119

Re: PDL 1. Round 3 Game 3. AAR

PostPosted: 20 Jul 2018, 02:44
by V
I’m not much for AAR’s, but I’ll cover the interesting bits from the outsiders point of view. WT went well, F08 stab by EF was a surprise (others may feel it should have been anticipated). It was potentially dangerous for both/either E or F. As it turned out E.

Immediate reaction was to offer assistance to Turkey to damage England (easy at the time) but there was no interest (so abandoned without trying). I understand an EFT 3-way was “in play”, but that was never a likely reality, being no significant improvement over the EFG already in hand.

Second option was to favour England over France. In S09 an English solo was a real possibility (Germany can attempt to get between England & Turkey). This approach was taken & in F09 I made a solid case to England for an attack on France to get a then potential 13 to 9 decisive SC advantage. Turkey would have been onside for an ET 2-way attempt, Germany had an unlikely shot at EGT. No interest again, for reasons apparent later. England truly believed in the EF 2-way & for personal reasons (that were unknown to me in F09) planned a Dip break following the game.

By F10 it’s 14 to 10 SC advantage to France over England & Germany could no longer exercise much influence towards any outcome. Amazingly right up to F11 England still believed France was attempting an EF 2-way. I initially thought France had taken a bad risk in collaborating in the F08 stab. A potential ET alliance was extremely dangerous at the time. By S10 it was apparent that it was a well judged “gamble”. France uniquely had inside knowledge of English intentions & “knew” the solo potential based on anticipated English errors.

Always defeat provides opportunity to see room for improvement. France knew significantly more about England than Germany. Had Germany been in better position to influence England during 1908 & 1909, then either France might not have been so comfortable to stab in F08 &/or England may have been more willing to stab France in F09. France knew they were secure in both cases. As usual Diplomatic deficiencies lead to missed opportunities.

Congrats to France in “playing” England. Without a threat of England taking strategic advantage in F09, Germany’s WT position is exceedingly stretched & France realised the solo opportunity with appropriately good timing. Well done.

Re: PDL 1. Round 3 Game 3. AAR

PostPosted: 20 Jul 2018, 07:38
by mhsmith0
fwiw, the thing wrt Germany was more, I'd talked a fair amount asking for a German stab of the EF set, and then when EF stabbed instead, they together had control of the board and I wasn't really in position to fight them even with German help, so it was mainly "will they be ok with a 3-way draw with substantially better SC splits than EFG had agreed or will they try for more, knowing that a solo stab by the other of the pair would be potentially a major risk" and at that point, better to just throw in with them and hope for the best.

I think that the stab by Turkey 1.0 of Russia was nearly insane; grabbing a dot or two in exchange for giving up an absolutely vital potential ally (and the best way to shut down EF much less EFG is to slow their growth and force them into a stalemate situation where they HAVE to stab a buddy in order to grow) is a major misplay barring a rock solid agreement with EF... which very obviously didn't exist.

In terms of WT, if you're Germany and you think that EF are friendly, then (IMO) you basically go begging Russia and Italy to intervene. If no one tries for ENG in spring 1901 you basically ALWAYS let Russia into Sweden even if you need to abandon the hell out of a possible Austrian friendship, because a Russian build in STP (F STP NC or A STP both help) can SHUT DOWN English growth prospects up north. Similarly, getting an Italian fleet into the TYS area can strangle French growth prospects down south, and from there it's basically running RIG against EF, which is actually pretty damn winnable imo (it's certainly what I did as Italy in PDL 2/3/1 early and midgame fwiw... and while it turned into the ole' FIR in the end, for quite a while Germany's position was entirely viable)

I could basically just look at fall 1901 moves
and predict an easy ride for EF. Russia gets just one build and is preoccupied down south. Germany gets two builds but is hostile to Russia up north (brutal when he desperately needs to get Russia to fight England), and has too many units wrapped up in what will likely be a losing battle to EF in the west. Italy has stabbed Austria, and is possibly cultivating a productive alliance with Turkey, but at the cost of being completely unprepared for the very obvious assault that France is about to launch by 1903 at the latest.

An AAR in pictures without bothering to read anything in messages or public press :P
France is about to stab England (possible but dubious) or much likelier, launch a massive assault into southern waters
Turkey just built a navy in Smyrna, which is a good sign Italy is screwed on both sides (how Italy didn't insist on an army build from Turkey as part of an alliance agreement is beyond me tbh)
Russia made the most non-commital build possible when he basically always needs to put that build into STP and stymie England
Germany made double army builds which means he's going after Russia even though Russia has problems everywhere and EF are not only getting along but growing, and the smoother the sailing gets for those two, the nastier it gets for almost everyone else
Austria's just dead in the water

Germany goes monumentally hard after Russia and just got mini-stabbed by Pic-Bur unless he really sucks at negotiating troop movement (and why in the WORLD wasn't Belgium part of the price of a WT agreement given that WT's are crap for Germany 90% of the time, with the other 10% being when E or F is just gonna stab the other instead?)
Italy's messing around in Balkans despite the massive French threat and failed AGAIN to grab the vital Tunis build
Russia's a season too late to get his unit into STP and will likely cede STP to the Brits
Austria's even more deader in the water

So FRANCE gets Belgium, ENGLAND gets Sweden, and Germany gets all of his units massively out of position so he can't defend himself from the nearly inevitable stab. Why would EF ever bother attackign each other when sweeping up Germany would be so much easier?
The Austrian collapse is complete
Turkey is growing but at heavy cost, unless he's got a rock solid agreemnet with EF
Italy finally realizes he needs to be in Tunis about 2 turns too late.
EF are certainly doing well though!

England has ceded a territory to France in exchange for peace and good relations, the sort of thign that should be a massive alarm bell to everyone else, and oh yeah he's gonna obliterate STP real soon since Russia lacks the bodies to defend it
Germany can't defend Holland, can barely defend Kiel, and has almost no room for easy growth
France can swarm all over Italy for all sorts of easy growth
Turkey's growing but far too slow, and any further growth will come at the expense of R or I, both of which are vital to slow down EF
EF are certainly doing well though!

Germany is playing patsy for EF at this point, completely abandoning all defenses and moving his units even further east. Oh yeah and France tossed a unit into Burgundy, which is a sure sign that a stab will happen at the precise moment that France wishes it to happen (DMZ's are VITAL in a functional alliance)
Turkey makes a crappy stab of Russia which means that Russia will collapse quickly against the EG assult
France is already overrunning Italy and it's still 1903
EF are certainly doing well though!

Germany lucks into France not stabbing this turn (then again France didn't need to)
Fresh from making a terrible stab of Russia, Turkey decides to (presumably) make a terrible stab of Italy over ION while somehow working with Italy to convoy an army to Apu. I have no idea what Turkey is thinking here.
Russia's dead in the water unless he can convince Turkey AND Germany to back off (Germany helping Russia into Sweden or vice versa, would have helpted stymie England, instead they're continuing to fight each other)... and even there it's really really hard.
Italy's largely overrun and ought to die before long.
EF are certainly doing well though!

France builds an army in Paris, and now can just waltz into Ruhr, Munich, or anywhere else she wants (a Marseilles navy build at least would have made Germany a bit less of a really really easy target)
England can move NWG to NTH and be in position to convoy to Den, Hol, Kiel, etc whenever he wants
Germany got no builds and has mediocre prospects for growing
Turkey got a largely useless army build at hte cost of destroying his potential ally
Russia destroyed a vital fleet up north
EF are certainly doing well though!

France finally stabs Germany
England getting into NTH ought be worrisome for Germany, though at least from German perspective he's focusing up north. Then again, England is the one who's set up to gain from Russia's corpse, leaving Germany in pretty ??? position
Russia is even deader than before
Italy is helping France stab Germany, I guess at this point some kind of desperate measure is warranted
Turkey stabs Russia even harder, in for a dime in for a dollar on this play I guess.
EF are certainly doing well though!

France plunges the knife into Germany
England actually helps Germany into Moscow, and makes moves up north that MIGHT signal a realignment of EG against F should the opportunity be seized
I have no idea what Turkey is doing, helping Italy then trying to stab him over Serbia?
That bit about Italy helping France against Germany didn't create any loyalty from France
EF are certainly doing well though!

it goes on but I'm not sure much is interesting. Germany stays the ally of EF despite getting stabbed over Munich (and doesn't even get it back for his efforts!!!!!!), Turkey grows slowly at the cost of having any friends at all, EF was fake fighting or makes up, and they just keep growing bigger and bigger

Re: PDL 1. Round 3 Game 3. AAR

PostPosted: 20 Jul 2018, 07:46
by mhsmith0
I think the TLDR is that if you see a traditionally powerful alliance showing extreme trust and growing well in tandem, it's basically up to you to stop them... or you're just gonna lose. *shrugs*