PDL - Round 3 viewers lounge

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Re: PDL - Round 3 viewers lounge

Postby mhsmith0 » 03 Jul 2018, 18:51

mhsmith0 wrote:
rd45 wrote:...

Retrospective predictions are not very impressive. The skill lies in predicting the future before it actually happens. Then you have to _make_ it happen, exactly the way you predicted that it would.

But the game is still running, so I won't say any more.


It isn't anymore lolol

But my point had been more of a "there wasn't really anything CRAZY about the turnaround, the game state was broadly predictable in the sense of a successful E/F alliance, with all other powers in disarray, will typically lead to E/F doing what they like"

I could eyeball that board at winter 1902 and say the outcome was very likely going to be one of

1) EFG 3-way
2) EFT 3-way
3) EF 2-way
4) E or F solo


In a bit more detail...

At that point in time EF were showing massive trust and non-hosility
IRT all had their forces caught up in the Balkans
Germany was all in on the WT since he had nothing west of Munich and 3/6 units east
Tunis was a gimme pickup for France (idk why Italy didn't take it in 1902 especially since an extra flee there helps a lot and a fleet in ADR doens't much matter *shrugs*)

It was broadly predictable that unless EF broke up and/or the rest of the board made a big turnaround and put up a still resistance, that EF was gonna run the game *shrugs*
Turkey stabbing Russia in 1903 only made it easier for them imo, but even without that, those two were in fantastic board position at that point
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Re: PDL - Round 3 viewers lounge

Postby rd45 » 03 Jul 2018, 18:55

mhsmith0 wrote:
rd45 wrote:...

Retrospective predictions are not very impressive. The skill lies in predicting the future before it actually happens. Then you have to _make_ it happen, exactly the way you predicted that it would.

But the game is still running, so I won't say any more.


It isn't anymore lolol

Turns out that predictions about the future are a little harder than I thought.
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Re: PDL - Round 3 viewers lounge

Postby mhsmith0 » 03 Jul 2018, 18:56

It is very hard to predict, especially the future.
:P
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Re: PDL - Round 3 viewers lounge

Postby boldblade » 03 Jul 2018, 19:17

Pure sham!
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Re: PDL - Round 3 viewers lounge

Postby mhsmith0 » 03 Jul 2018, 19:34

boldblade wrote:Pure sham!


*shrugs*
England had zero interest in working together to stop France so I just made sure France got the easy and quick solo. No skin off my teeth. Without any ally my best outcome was to prevent the 2wd so at least I achieved something in the game :)
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Re: PDL - Round 3 viewers lounge

Postby jay65536 » 03 Jul 2018, 19:36

I was all set to decry the carebear draw, but then I saw the result--this is either a total breakdown (which seems unlikely from an outsider's perspective) or the biggest carebear meta-gaming result I've ever seen. Only once before have I ever seen such total lack of fight in an endgame.

Anyway, now that the game is over, my point was, as of Fall 1908, when the replacement Turkey took over, France appeared to have a losing position, and instead she went on to win.
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Re: PDL - Round 3 viewers lounge

Postby boldblade » 03 Jul 2018, 19:41

mhsmith0 wrote:
boldblade wrote:Pure sham!


*shrugs*
England had zero interest in working together to stop France so I just made sure France got the easy and quick solo. No skin off my teeth. Without any ally my best outcome was to prevent the 2wd so at least I achieved something in the game :)


It would have been respectable if the true league 2 leader had gotten the spot!
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Re: PDL - Round 3 viewers lounge

Postby boldblade » 03 Jul 2018, 19:42

jay65536 wrote:I was all set to decry the carebear draw, but then I saw the result--this is either a total breakdown (which seems unlikely from an outsider's perspective) or the biggest carebear meta-gaming result I've ever seen. Only once before have I ever seen such total lack of fight in an endgame.

Anyway, now that the game is over, my point was, as of Fall 1908, when the replacement Turkey took over, France appeared to have a losing position, and instead she went on to win.

Like I said, pure sham!
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Re: PDL - Round 3 viewers lounge

Postby mhsmith0 » 03 Jul 2018, 19:51

jay65536 wrote:I was all set to decry the carebear draw, but then I saw the result--this is either a total breakdown (which seems unlikely from an outsider's perspective) or the biggest carebear meta-gaming result I've ever seen. Only once before have I ever seen such total lack of fight in an endgame.

Anyway, now that the game is over, my point was, as of Fall 1908, when the replacement Turkey took over, France appeared to have a losing position, and instead she went on to win.


Me to England, winter 1910, when France was up 14-10
so just to confirm
you're cool with France solo'ing here, correct?


England response
it's a two way draw, we planned it that way from S01
but thanks for checking!


If everyone intends to eliminate me, and my position is completely indefensible, then I might as well just work to avoid the 2wd, which turned out to be really easy to make not happen.


My message to France fall 1911:
i'll probably just vacate greece so go ahead and walk in there lol

France respsonse:
Really??

My response:

Sure why not

I clearly have no (realistic) chance at a result
I clearly want you to solo instead of chopping the board with England
What do I have to lose?

I mean, if England came crawling back to me with a useful offer, I guess I'd think about changing my mind, but even in that world we're talking about a lengthy "stop the solo" slog, with the upside being a 4-way draw since it's unlikely we could whittle away Germany without giving you the solo.

i.e. i'm not going to bother putting in any effort to get England to see sense when "oh shit France is probably going to solo instead of carebearing a free 2wd for me" should have been REEEEEALLLY obvious spring of this year.

PS I was thinking AEG/EMED. Probably flexible on that point I guess?



I had a few options on the board:
1) Convince France to let me back into the result
2) Convince England to let me back into the result
3) Do nothing and get whittled away, and then EF either carebear the 2wd or someone solos
4) Help someone solo

I took a shot at #2, but it had been obvious for a while that England didn't much want to talk to me (even when we were "allies"), and the nonsense around him sliding into Sev after telling me I could go into Ukraine no problem was annoying enough that I was far less motivated to care to bother. I simply don't feel like I have any obligation to force someone to come to the table when they don't want to do so. England had a lot to lose since the French solo chance was super obvious (and since neither GT were talking to E, it's not hard to guess who they WERE talking to lol). All the more so given that in fall 1911, France had a free shot at London, and a realistic shot to stab in multiple places to get at least to 16 and very possibly to 17+, and it's basically a cakewalk to a solo even if she didn't get it that turn. England had everything to lose, I had nothing to lose. He didn't feel like talking to me. Fair enough, but you do that, and you take your chances on what happens next *shrugs*

Broadly speaking, imo Pootle solo'd because she played the best on the board and deserved the solo. All of the original players outside of EF allowed them the run of the board for no particularly good reason; why RIG didn't choose to band together and fight back, instead of sending all forces east, is beyond me. Why original Turkey stabbed Russia without a strong alliance with EF is beyond me. idk what Austria was up to I guess, but getting eliminated fast isn't usually a sign of good diplomacy :P . And England put all his eggs into the EF basket and didn't do anything to protect himself, despite the fact that EF only gets to 2wd with SEVERE carebearing (or mulitple people surrendering before it hits 17-17), and got the result that such an approach merits (imo).

I guess I could have "fought" to keep the game going longer, but "when will England see the danger of France" vs "EF could very easily stitch it back up and carebear it if I push back"... meh. I worked as soon as I entered the game to crack up EFG, and EF turned on G right afterwards. I then got attacked by a longstanding EF alliance, which was broadly predictable even if the board gave me zero real options to do anything about it.

Anyway I think my play here was... mediocre? I don't hang my head in shame, but it's hardly a pride point either. Just a game where I subbed into a bad spot, tried to make the best of it, and then chose to play spoiler to the power who'd annoyed me (E) and help the power who was more fun to talk to (F).
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Re: PDL - Round 3 viewers lounge

Postby mhsmith0 » 03 Jul 2018, 19:52

boldblade wrote:
mhsmith0 wrote:
boldblade wrote:Pure sham!


*shrugs*
England had zero interest in working together to stop France so I just made sure France got the easy and quick solo. No skin off my teeth. Without any ally my best outcome was to prevent the 2wd so at least I achieved something in the game :)


It would have been respectable if the true league 2 leader had gotten the spot!


I can't help that one, I was asked and hemmed and hawed and then said yes. I'd have been fine if anyone else particularly wanted the spot; had you contacted mjparett to ask to sub in?
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