by bitwise » 28 Aug 2009, 20:38
ITALIAN AAR for the Tournament Final
game Players
ENGLAND (Batsman)
FRANCE (Master Radishes)
ITALY (bitwise) WINNER
GERMANY (camroc)
AUSTRIA (jeanphi)
TURKEY (rick.leeds)
RUSSIA (mdmuff, originally Diplomat)
INITIAL THOUGHTS:
Italy again. It seems like I'm Italy in about a third of all my games. On the plus side that has given me a lot of experience to enter this game with, but on the downside the facts remain that statisticly it's harder to win as Italy. Especially against this lot.
My initial plan is to get a CENTRAL ALLIANCE of Austria, Germany and myself established. This is a bit of a gamble, as the CA requires certain types of players in the right places. Germany should preferably be a deceptive smoothtalker who'll be the covert member of the alliance, while Austria should be a reliable teamplayer, who wouldn't stab me even if progress gets slow once in a while. It would be an added bonus if the other alliance members were below me in the qualification rankings in case of a tie-breaker. I cross my fingers and hope for MR in Germany and Camroc in Austria.
To get the CA off to a good start, we need to get 3 wars started ASAP: England vs. France, England vs. Russia and Russia vs. Turkey. This will allow the alliance to prosper without getting to much into harms way.
Even if the CA doesn't get established, I will need to be wary of naval powers, as they are the main threats against Italy. Turkey must die and England needs to be contained too. France is a danger too, but if he's willing to have a large DMZ between us, then his fleets will probably head North instead.
INITIAL DIPLOMACY:
I contact Germany and Austria about the Central Alliance. They both like the idea, but I get the impression that the player types are wrong for this to become a succes, but it's worth a try anyway.
I also get mail from France suggesting a large DMZ between us. I agree right away, even if this means that my initial target then will be Turkey, which means a slow start for me. France also indicates, that he and Russia would like to form a secret F/I/R alliance with me. Since that's a perfect chance for me to help the CA become successful I happily join, but this is just a backup alliance for me at the moment.
England approaches Germany and me about ganging up on France right from the start with openings to the Channel, Burgundy and Piedmont. We agree, but it's a charade to get the E. vs. F. war started. I warn France, and setup a bounce in Piedmont. Together with Germany I write some fake intel about France supporting himself into Burgundy, which Germany will use as an excuse later for not going to Burgundy as promised.
Finally Turkey suggests that he and I form an unlikely alliance. Sure (NOT). One worry is, that I haven't expressed any concern about a Western Triple or a Juggernaut. Yet France uses many words to insure me, that there is no WT, and Turkey unprovoked denies the existance of a Jugger. What is all this about? Freudian slips?
I write the first Swiss Observer for the shoutbox, which is well received.
By the end of the movement phase I've nailed Diplomat as Russia and Camroc as Germany. I suspect that MR is Austria and Batsman is France, which puts jeanphi and Rick as the witches, but no clue about who of them is who.
Austria is my most trusted compagnion followed by Germany, France and Russia in that order, and to summerize I'm in the following alliances: G/I/A, F/I/R, E/G/I and I/T. The 2 first got potential, the last 2 do not!
SPRING 01:
I order the arranged VEN-PIE, while the rest of my units moves for a traditional Lepanto. Then the orders are revealed. NOT GOOD AT ALL. France does not bounce with England in the Channel as expected. He was warned about England going there, but did nothing to counter it. Is there something true about the WT after all? Even worse, the Black Sea was left open despite my best efforts to get a R/T war going. Now Turkey is already in CON and heading in my direction. At least my allies in the CA did as I expected.
FALL 01:
The CA plenum continues, but the inital results were a bit discouraging. I continue to talk with F and R about the secret F//I/R alliance, which is becoming a close contender for my prefered alliance.
To keep up appearances for England, I feign outrage in a mail to him and Germany (who offcourse knows better) and accuse either of them of leaking my move to PIE to France. I don't think England is convinced, but it's not like he has anyone else to trust right now, since Germany didn't go to BUR.
Austria is becoming extremely paranoid already. He's certain that there's both a WT and Jugger coming in our direction. I'm not convinced about the WT, but the vacant Black Sea is a big concern. Both Russia and Turkey are courting Austria and offering support against the other, but together we decide to play it safe and have him taking Greece with support. In retrospect a bad decision as both support offers were true, and Austrias distrust actually made his Juggernaut prophecy come true.
Since Austria is suspecting a WT, he is reluctant to trust Germany fully, and it's becoming clear that the CA won't be long lived. I have a better feeling about Germany, but I still trust Austria over him. I'm trying to keep both Germany and Austria on my good side individually, so I'll get the choice of who to stab, when it comes to that.
Austria and I try to setup an I/A/R to finish off Turkey. France suddenly tells me, that Austria is liking Russia better than me. Disinformation? Probably, but something to watch out for anyway.
(NOTE: It's impossible to describe the paranoia level in the game for those who didn't play, but it was very, very tense)
During this turn I realize that it's jeanphi in Austria and MR in France. Batsman and Rick are the witches, but to the very end I keep changing mind about who is England and who is France.
My current alliances: A/I/G, F/I/R, A/I/R, A/I.
Russia sounds like a possible good ally for the mid-game, until I see that he doesn't build in SEV as promised.
I make a mess of the 2nd Swiss Observer, which I forget to post as anonymous. I try to pin the post as a renegade Observer, but I guess the damage is done already.
France gambles that England will not go for BRE and is right, which earns him 2 builds. I'm delighted to see, that he doesn't build in MAR.
I take Tunis and builds another fleet in NAP.
SPRING 02:
The Juggernaut has manifested itself, even if there never was one. I play a big part in organizing the rest of the board against it, even if I feel like I'm playing the victory into the hands of France. Austria supports me into AEG. At least we should be able to keep Turkey contained now.
(NOTE: I lost track of the location of my diary at this point, so the rest of the game will be desribed illuminated by hindsight, as I honestly can't remember what I was feeling and thinking at the time. Only that the paranoia level was ever increasing.)
It was about this time, that Diplomat/Russia started to have problems playing, and eventually was replaced with mdmuff.
FALL 02:
France issues bogus orders, while the rest of us fight the Jugger. We're more succesful in the South, where I take BUL with Austrian support. I'm now up to 5 centers, growing slowly but steady with a new fleet in NAP. Austrias paranoia is becoming intolerable though, while France is slowly but steady becoming my best friend. Germany is still in on the loop as the CA technically is still in play, although I have already dismissed its chances of success. Maybe F/G/I could be interesting for the mid-game?
03:
Austria apparently goes solo, as he doesn't issue the needed support for BUL, which is destroyed by Turkey. I now really don't have any hopes of success, but I wow to take out Austria first, before I fall myself. I start firming up my relations with all Austrias neighbours to make his fall quick. France and England are attacking each other.
04:
I fall back at the seas, allowing Turkey out of his box to take Greece from Austria, while I get Russia to help me cutting support, so I can take Trieste. Russia is definately in my good book now, but his size is becoming a problem. It doesn't take much pushing to get Germany to move towards him. France is winning against England, and he gets permission to build a fleet in MAR, if he takes it to the Atlantic right away.
05:
Turkey is wary about Russia, so he fortunately doesn't pursue me into my own waters. This allows me time to further reduce Austria together with Russia and Turkey, and by the end of the year Austria is gone. That'll teach him. Then I investigate the board again and discover, that I'm not in as bad shape as I had feared. Now a 6 center power, and Russia and Turkey can't get their act together. Perfect for me, if they keep mistrusting each other. England is becoming extinct really soon too.
06:
England is finished off by Russia and France. Germany is trapped in his own diplomatic success. None of his neighbours wants to fight him, and he's poorly positioned to make an effective stab on anybody. He makes the mistake of waiting for someone to attack him first, which costs him growth at a critical point in the game. Russia is becoming a great ally for me. He's so big that he's hesitant to grow further, but he's also pissed at Turkey who has ventured into the Black Sea without an invitation. The result: 2 of Turkeys conquered centers becomes mine this year. Now 8 centers strong.
07:
F/G starts an attack on the leading Russia. I'm in on the plan, but keeps up a straight face towards Russia, as his coorporation is needed to break down Turkey. The real and hopefully well hidden agenda at this time it, that France and I want to divide the world between us and race to 18 without breaking our DMZ. The odds look very even at this time, but I think each of us thinks, that the "don't break the DMZ" rule only applies if the other one isn't winning.
In the Fall I decide to stab Russia for a center. Not an easy decision, but I felt like I needed the extra clout in case France managed to get Germany to move in my direction, before France eventually stabbed him. Russia had actually invited me to do so, but I declined at the time and only made the decision to stab in the last minutes of the round. I figure that I can reactivate my Russian relations, once France stabs Germany and a new balance is needed.
08:
I shift my troops around for better positioning. Russia feeds a center to Turkey. I hadn't foreseen that. A stronger Turkey will almost certainly guerantee that France wins the hidden race. Also France has resisted the temptation to stab Germany yet, so I don't have a changed situation to approach Russia about.
09:
In the Spring I take RUM from Russia, but I vacate it in the Fall for a move to Turkish Bulgaria. Now Turkey is back to 3 centers, and even more importantly France has finally stabbed Germany. Now I can approach Russia and Germany about fighting France in the North. We make a plan, where Russia moves against Turkey while I back away from him. G/R insists that I must also move on France now. I plan too, but I can't say that to them beforehand. One of them will almost certainly forward such a message to France spoiling the surprise to buy himself some time in the North. I know I would have anyway. That part of the plan seems to work fine as France doesn't build in MAR.
10:
I move against France breaking the DMZ. Unfortunately Russia didn't believe that I would actually move against France, so he moves against me rather than against Turkey. The one thing I can't afford now is to let Turkey out of the coffin and into my backyard, so I need to hold back some of my attack force as rear guard making it less likely that I would make gains in France. In the Fall Russia takes WAR from Germany which wasn't part of the plan. Germany becomes very pissed over this, but on the positive side Russia gains a build in STP, which will slow down France.
11:
I'm faced with a gamble in France. Do I take Spain, which will succeed but might not hold in the Fall, or do I try to take MAR, which might fail but could be a decisive blow against France if succesful? I try the later and fail. It will now be a stalemate line in that part of the map. Russia is finally moving in on Turkey, but I don't like seeing him vacate STP like that. What kind of deal has he struck with France? Germany also seems to have a new deal with France. What kind of witchcraft is this, that enables France to pacify the 2 powers he stabbed so quickly? Oh well, that's what you'll often see, when playing against MR. At least Russia is still working together with me too. I just hope he knows what he's dealing with when it comes to France.
12:
Both STP and NOR has been vacated. What's going on up there? Russia is preparing for the assault on Berlin, and Turkey finally loses a center and is now down to 2.
13:
Turkey is finally killed off, Russia takes Berlin and I take Munich. France takes STP to the genuine? surprise of Russia. The situation is now this: France sits at 14 centers, I have 13, Russia has 6 and Germany has 1.
Russia starts talking about the end-game. His goal is to be involved in a draw. I tell him, that's fine with me as long as the draw takes place at a time, where I'm equal to France in size. To get to that point I'll need to stab him first and I tell him that too. He appreciates me being frank about it, and I reassure him that I won't stab him if it puts our frontline against France in danger.
14:
I let Russia have another center in Turkey to get an army in Warsaw, while I disband an unneeded fleet.
15:
I stab Russia for 2 centers to get to an equal amount of centers to France. I'm in position to take more centers from Russia when needed.
16:
No changes as the frontlines are firming up in the North. I'm starting to feel confident that I'll win the tournament, but I'm not looking for a solo yet. However, France and Germany are ignoring the Russian draw proposals to end the game. Germany has gone into hibernation and is only issuing HOLD orders. I never believe that he has surrendered, just that he no longer wants to do anything in the game. (I was wrong in that assumption).
17:
Still no changes or accepted draws, but now my frontline is positioned to take more centers from Russia and put more pressure on France.
18:
I stab Russia for more centers getting to 17. I could have gotten the solo here and there, if I hadn't completely misread Russias hint on how to do it. What a poor timing for my language skills to fail me.
19:
But it didn't matter. Moscow couldn't be defended, so I'd reach 18 this year then. BUT... then Germany suddenly jumps back into action and with a combined F/G/R effort forces me out of Munich. Stalemated and resigned, I start communicating with everybody about what would be an acceptable draw for them. France finally comes with a message, where he congratulates me with the tournament win, but he'll only settle for a 2-way in the final, as he's doing pretty well in the rankings and wants to continue with that. It doesn't take much consideration to forward that message to Germany and Russia leaving it up to them to decide how the game should end.
20:
And it paid off. Germany "forgets" to support France in Berlin, and I take Berlin to get to 18 centers which can all be defended.
CONCLUSION:
What a fantastic game. Fantastic diplomacy and communication. Fantastic opponents.
I'm pleased to have won the tournament.
I'm very pleased to have won the tournament final against these opponents.
I'm delighted to have won the tournament final against these opponents with a SOLO!
I'm totally over the roof with joy to have won the tournament final against these opponent with a solo AS ITALY!!!
Simply put, this is probably the best game of Diplomacy I've ever played. I made very few mistakes throughout the game. I kept my cool despite the bad start. Overall I was very succesful in getting other people to do my dirty work. E.g. I didn't attack Germany myself until the endgame, but before that I was involved in getting both France and Russia and even Austria to move on him to make sure that he never found the opportunity to move against my weakest spot through Tyrolia.
PLAYER COMMENTS:
AUSTRIA (jeanphi): You were my best friend for the first couple of years, but your paranoia made me wonder if you perceived me the same way. When you failed me in Bulgaria, I was committed to take you down with me. I was just fortunate that concurrent events made it possible for me to come out of the vendetta stronger instead of weaker. Hint: You're the only person I know, who refers to a Juggernaut as a Jurg, which makes it rather easy to guess your ID.
ENGLAND (Batsman): You stuck your neck out right from the begining in trying to get everybody to gang up on France. It could have worked, if it wasn't for the other alliances that were in play. That made you walk into a deadly trap, where even your undisputed skills couldn't have saved you, but you certainly made some nice tries before it came to that. I liked the stickers for the Department of Redundancy Department in the shoutbox.
TURKEY (rick.leeds): What can I say? Italy and Turkey are deadly enemies, and I did my best throughout the game to keep you contained in the corner. It probably didn't help, that RL issues were limiting your communication the first year.
GERMANY (Camroc): I so wished that you would have been Austria instead, but as Germany in a Central Alliance I think you're to honest. Nevertheless I truly feared you the entire mid-game, because you had the option of sneaking through TYR and make my defenses crumble. So I tried very hard to stay friendly with you and did my best to ensure that you always had someone else to fight. In my opinion your main mistake was to stay passive for a year, when you had nobody to fight. If you had decided to move on either France, Russia or me that year, it would have been a very different game. It was also a good laugh to read your message about not wanting to help me, as my nation had lost in cricket to England. I'm sure that there is a Danish National Cricket team somewhere, but I never heard about them and doubt that they would stand a chance against England if they were to play eachother.
RUSSIA (mdmuff and Diplomat): Diplomat was easy to spot due to his distinct style. As always you want to ally with him, but I just had the feeling that I wasn't his primary ally. Due to circumstances there was no secret in the identity of his replacement. Mdmuff, I really liked you messages and your rational approach to the game. It suited me greatly that you became the early leader. It never ceases to amaze me how much more dangerous a 9 center Russia looks on the map compared to an 8-center Italy. I wouldn't have minded sharing a draw with you, but I had to move on, when that was no longer an option.
FRANCE (Master Radishes): Fantastic game from you. It never ceases to amaze me, how you win back the "trust" from the people that you've stabbed previously in the game. Our partnership was a perfect match as it offered us both the chance of winning. I broke the DMZ agreement at just about the right time, which I'm certain you would have done too, if the situation had been reversed. In the end, it all came down to me being ahead of you in the tie-breaker rankings, and thus having the luxery to offer draws, where you had to hope for a solo.
Well-deserved win.
http://www.playdiplomacy.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=8027
