198461. Dark Side of the Moon AAR

[edmgrim]

Dark Side of the moon AAR
First of all, a hearty thank you to all the participants in this game and a particular appreciation to everyone for remaining civil and polite even when the urge to do otherwise was strong. This was my first game back on PlayDip (or any other online environment) for quite some time due to a sequence of negative experiences where participants were engaging in nasty name calling and other offensive behaviors. I had become quite discouraged.

Executive Summary

Lineup

Dark Side of The Moon ended in 1908 in a 3-way draw. The lineup:
England – winner – edmgrim
France – winner – Dinamo
Turkey – winner – Nat20
Austria – pkvision
Russia – Chairpusher
Germany – Deathstar (original – surrendered) RedCandle (replacement)
Italy – ashower (original – surrendered) sta-ya (replacement)

'01

I have decided to try something new for me this game. As everyone has discovered, I am a prolific communicator. I usually am the first to break the ice when games start. But this time, I try to wait until I hear from others first.

Italy contacts me first. Just a friendly hello seeking to establish cordial relations an inviting me to share intelligence with him, particularly about France. Yeashur…I’m going to feed him information that will help him turn France against me. But I respond cordially also. You never know who your friends may turn out to be.

France is next. He is quick to invite me to a cooperative, if not allied position. When I play England, France is my favorite ally (despite some literature advising against it). Nevertheless, I respond with a non-committal but favorable reply.

Finally, Russia writes and he is all about an alliance. He jumps right in with promises about not building fleets, beseeching me not to put an Army up north, and most significantly, opening up ’01 by going right to war with Germany. I’m immediately wary of him, but happy to agree that we can be friends and work together.

I wait for Germany, but nothing is coming from him. So I finally reach out. My concern is Belgium and I pick his brain. Does he prefer to allow me to have it or to make sure it is vacant in 01. I’m hoping he will offer it to me in the interests of a strong England and Germany can defend against a France that gets off to a quick start. I’m about to be disappointed. Germany all but demands that I help him into Belgium…help him to 3 builds to my single build. He promises to help me into Sweden the following year.

I reply that I think it is unwise to put him at +3 to my +1 on a promise that he is just as likely l=not to keep. A deafening silence from him in response to my expressed concerns leaves me in no doubt that we will not be working together.

Now it’s time to tie up loose ends. I reach out to turkey with a joke about meeting in Bohemia and inviting out mutual engagement in matters of foreign intelligence. Turkey likes my joke and I think we have grounds for a longstanding mutual understanding. I’m going to be disappointed.

Austria is cordial, but there’s no “there” there. I didn’t offer much to him either though. When I am England, Austria is usually the power I have the most trouble finding any sort of common ground with until the mid game. This session will be no different.

Back to France, we come to an agreement over The Channel and Belgium and we are off to the races. No surprises in my neck of the woods in 01. Germany bounces Russia while France, Germany, and I all end up with 2 builds.

The rest of the map is pretty unsurprising but Italy’s build in Naples and France’s Paris and Brest builds concern me.

I'll get to 02 and beyond later....

[edmgrim]

’02

France builds a fleet in Brest and an Army in Paris. Meanwhile, Italy has built a fleet in Naples. The Franco Italian border is completely unguarded by either power. Meanwhile, I already know Germany is antagonistic. The writing seems to be on the wall.

At the same time, things in the Baltics look particularly dim for my friend on the opposite corner. I send him a brief message conceding that our plans to meet in Bohemia may need to be given further consideration and that if we are to meet at all, it will be as rulers in exile. He conceded that his thoughts are along the same lines.

I panic and make my first mistake. I send a message to Russia telling him that if I am to be gobbled up by France and Germany, I’d just as soon let him have unfettered access to my centers. Russia responds and is more than happy to comply.

But then France reaches out to me and we are able to find common ground: France and I have similar opinions about Germany. We talk at length of his negotiation style and I think, through this discussion, we form a bond of trust. I make an offer that I hope inspires France to believe it is more worthwhile for him to promote my health than it is for him to grab my centers. I volunteer to cede Belgium to him while I attempt to take Denmark In spring I move into The Channel and hope France trusts me enough to go through with moving into Belgium with my channel support. In the meantime, I am setting up my convoy to Denmark.

I make my second mistake of the year by communicating my intention to Russia in the hopes that we can join forces against Germany. I ask for his support hoping he does not notice I don’t need it and therefore won’t use it against Norway. Instead, Russia seizes the opportunity to steal Norway from me.

I destroy The Channel. And Russia, despite having clear problems in the south, builds a fleet in St. Pete and an Army in Moscow (which he plants there for a year). Now, because I resent Russia now, I promise my allegiance to France. If he is willing to preserve me as his servant, great! Otherwise, I’ll make myself available to him if he needs an easy build. It is my view that as long as he does not feel threatened by me, he is happy to have me do his bidding and preserve a buffer while he addresses more important concerns elsewhere.

A by product of this year is that Italy (ashower) and I start engaging in extensive conversations both about the game, general strategy, and also some outside interests. All of it is more in the vein of hypothetical extrapolation. He knows I want France to attack him and I know that he is very happy watching France plant his fleets just outside my back yard. Still, we are becoming friends and the beginnings of an odd alliance start forming with me focusing on The North, France taking the center, and Italy going east. France and I are not entirely sure if Italy is aligned with Austria and leading us on or if he is sincere. My belief is he is burning the candle at both ends until he decides which side to extinguish.

’03


One of the biggest mistakes I see so many players make in Diplomacy is the one where they fail to recognize discretion is the better part of valor. Even though things are going OK with France, I am not comfortable with the way he is happy to keep the pressure on me while leaving Italy completely free of worry. So, I go to Germany again. I don’t like him, but we can use each other. But he slams the door on every proposal I make. But what is really bothering me is that he persists in the lie that he was sincere in his offer in ’01 to put me into Sweden in ’02 if I had given him Belgium. Nevertheless, I proceed with my intention to try and take Sweden without success. I am not expecting to succeed, but I have a plan for the Fall, in part because:

Germany takes Belgium in spring, but it is an ill-conceived move. France anticipated it and is ready to take it back in Fall

A byproduct of this is that Germany has left Kiel vulnerable. And in the fall, [b}Denmark takes Kiel.[/b] Russia writes some bad orders and because of that, I miss an opportunity to stay in Skag and Denmark while taking Kiel. And it should be noted that had Sweden attacked Denmark (a likely bounce) there was a chance that Russia could have saved his ally, Germany from losing a center.

I send Russia a message telling him that he is being shortsighted. He is not looking out for his friends, he is ignoring a looming threat in The South, and he is not building alliances to compensate for not trying to help Germany.
Then, during the retreat, Russia drives another nail into his own coffin by proactively destroying Sevastopol instead of creating a little intrigue over the matter. (Not to mention that destroying Sev has opened the floodgates in The South while he still would have a decent defense in the north by destroying St, Pete.) Russia’s days are numbered as Austria and Turkey mend their differences and join in to take Russia apart. In ’04.

[Dinamo]

I agree that this was a very enjoyable game to play, especially as it was one of the first after taking about a year and a half away from Diplomacy for pretty much the same reasons as edmgrim.

I'm not such a prolific writer like edmgrim so my input will be a lot less than his and the fact that I'm currently playing a few games as France makes it difficult to remember what is from which game.

I wrote to everyone right off the bat and based on the replies I felt that it was worth trying to see if it was possible to arrange things with England, Russia or Italy. My initial plan was to focus on one nation and attempt to eliminate them as quickly as possible and then move onto someone else. I found Germany's style to be less than conducive to making me want to work with him - which in my mind sealed his fate. If I'm correct he was basically demanding three SCs in the first year. Oddly enough he didn't bring up Burgundy so I just moved there as arranged with Russia. I didn't really communicate too much with Austria or Turkey, but that was mainly because I was focusing on other areas.

The original plan was for Russia to move to Silesia and me to Burgundy and hopefully get England to agree to join us and eliminate Germany very quickly. Unfortunately Russia didn't follow through and I feel this might have been the one thing that really led to his downfall, especially as he was always promising to make a move, but never did. By the end of 01 England was in Belgium and Russia was bounced in Sweden - if only he had listened to what both England and I had suggested.

02 - 03 was basically me and England working as best as possible against Germany and me trying to keep Italy (and England)from panicking over my three fleets. Not an easy task to be honest and at times I did wonder whether it was a mistake having them sit and do nothing. In the end I decided to keep Italy happy and pull back to Spain. Thankfully England allowed me to go to the EC to allow me to retake Belgium. However, I believe that my fleets were a cause of concern for both of them and a mystery to the others as to why they were doing nothing productive.

By this point I had pretty much decided to work as much as possible with England and keep Italy from getting too worried as his messages led me to believe that he would turn at the slightest perceived provocation and I didn't want him (Italy) moving in my direction until Germany was defeated and I was prepared.

Not sure what else to add except I hope edmgrim continues the AAR as it is enjoyable to read.

[edmgrim]

’04 – The mid game begins

There were some mistakes in this chapter when I posted it earlier. Mostly about Germany's abdication but also some peripheral remarks about Russia. Changes are highlighted in red.

It is becoming clear to everyone that France and I are tied at the hip. Well, everyone but me. I’m actually getting a little frustrated about the space France is giving Italy. Several of my other “Friends,” Turkey and Austria in particular are pointing out how easily France could just waltz into my back yard. As if I am not aware that he has almost a free path to all of my home centers this year if I am not careful and two of them even if I am.

I decide that while my centers are certainly tempting targets, I am more valuable to France as a tool to help him weaken his (future) opponents without using his units than my centers are to his unbridled growth. And, I’ll concede that there is probably small degree of ambiguity that is working to our combined favor since that comes from the, as Italy puts it “Occam’s Razor” but what I view more as “The Sword of Damocles” that everyone sees at my doorstep.

Picking up from last year, Italy, France, and I enter into three-way discussions. Privately France and I are having additional conversations about whether we really trust Italy or if he is actually allied with Austria. And I am also engaging with Italy privately, but those discussions are more focused on my loyalty to a three-way as well as some interesting philosophical discussions.

Despite all the antagonism that has defined my relationship with Germany, I reach out to him one more time with an invitation to join our efforts. Given his weakened state, he is marginally easier to communicate with and due to the shift in The Balkans where Austria has switched from working with Russia to destroy Turkey to helping Turkey out of his mess to take on Russia, Germany brings Russia into the discussion.

There is a lot to discuss here and some of it is 20-20 hindsight:

Austria

My thoughts on Austria’s switch – part 1

By now, Russia has bungled at least three moves by submitting orders that make absolutely no sense to any of us on the board. If he isn’t giving orders that “do not correspond” such as supporting a Norway HOLD while Norway attacks Sweden, he is ordering unnecessary support while ignoring opportunities to cut opposition support against him (or his ally). Austria probably realizes that Russia is not a safe partner.

My thoughts on Austria’s switch – part 2

Austria has started engaging with me, mainly to point out the threat that France poses. But I am guessing he is trying to pry some intelligence about Italy out of me also. On the flip side, I am pressing him about the Baltics and also trying to get him to spill on Italy.

But we are also enjoying an entertaining discussion on tour combined incredulity over Russia’s confusing moves.

All this is the long way to, [i]I don’t think Austria trusts Italy any more than France and I do and he wants a strong Turkish Fleet to be ready to face Franco-Italian onslaught.

My thoughts on Austria’s switch – part 3

And I’ll turn out to be wrong about this – And I’ll come out now and say that this is the reason Austria collapsed also – I think Austria sees Turkey as a stop-gap measure. A way to take down Russia before I can get in but also expose Turkey to an easy stab as soon as Moscow falls.

I send a message to Turkey warning him of this. A message that Turkey responds to with a wink and a smile and nothing more – Also the last communication I will receive from Turkey for at least two or three years.

Russia and Germany

Russia and Germany are making some proposals. Germany wants my help putting him into Belgium. I want him to help me take it back. Meanwhile, Russia is offering his fleets in The North (for what, I’ll never know). The plan they have hatched for encouraging me to cooperate with them is for me to help Germany into Belgium. I ask how I benefit from the proposal and make a comment about where I see prospective builds (Holland or Kiel – both German) – or at least avoid destroying.

Germany never responds. If his fate was not sealed before, it most certainly is now. In Spring, France moves his Army from Picardy to Belgium while I counter Germany's attack on Denmark on my own successful attack on Kiel (with SKA following into Denmark in anticipation on Russia attempting to move in. Had I only known that protecting Denmark was not necessary. Sweden supports Norway to hold while Norway attacks Sweden. Ironically Russia has actually bought himself a year with this mistake since SKA is now vacant and I can't launch an attack into Scandinavia.

Germany retreats Kiel into Holland and then abdicates. I prematurely celebrate forgetting how PlayDip deals with abdication. (I was under the impression that a surrender results in irrevocable CD as opposed to NMR which opens a door for new players.) A new Kaiser enters the fray. His outlook is dim, but the new leader grabs his role with gusto! I immediately like him and despite his plea for my mercy, I am pretty honest with him that I do not see much hope for our togetherness.

Through my channels with other players, I get wind of his negotiations with the rest of the map. Italy, France, and I, in our discussions are saying two things:

We like the new Germany more than his predecessor.

It’s too late; Germany must die.

But I recognize that Austria has a vested interest in keeping Germany around just a little bit longer. I know that he too does not care about Germany’s long term prospects, but anything that will delay me and France is good by him.
Germany, to his credit, remains receptive to continued negotiation and I make him an improbable offer. I fully expect him to reject it and, in fact, I am expecting that even if he does agree, he will be lying. It doesn’t matter to me. I’m hoping to discourage an attack on Kiel and I’m lying to him anyway. But somehow, he takes me up on it:

I’ll guarantee Berlin and use Kiel to support Munich. That means Holland holds too. In return, Berlin attacks Silesia and Austria doesn’t get Warsaw. You’ve hurt Austria and helped Russia survive and preserved yourself
…


You see here, my singular objective is to mess with Austria who I think has the inside track to a solo right now.

It doesn’t really matter to me whether he does or does not take me up, though…I just don’t want Berlin attacking Kiel.


France and Italy

Italy

Really not much more to say about Italy than what was in the introduction. I am pretty much staying out of the affairs in The Med unless they ask for my opinion.

France
France moves his fleet into Belgium, and takes Munich (with support from Kiel). Meanwhile, I take Holland (with support from Belgium). There’s a bunch of bouncing around in Scandinavia.

One more thing – Original Germany (Deathstar) proves his mettle by abandoning the game after he loses Holland. A new Germany arrives for Spring 05

In the Balkans and Russia

Austria takes Sev in the Spring and then cedes it back to Turkey in the fall. Meanwhile Austria wrestles Warsaw away from Russia despite the fact that I have given him a nearly fail-safe way to save it. It’s not that I want Russia to survive… I just want to get his centers before Austria does. Nevertheless, I am doing everything in my power to help Russia survive at this point. And so, I’ll say it here and not repeat it any further.

Starting in Fall ’04, despite all our differences, I am sending Russia incessant messages with clear instructions on how to stall the onslaught from Turkey and Austria. I’m EVEN offering him non-aggression agreements to help him keep both Norway and St’ Pete as long as he turns against his attacker(s) and save Moscow. And he rewards me not by actually facilitating his demise and the hands of Austria and actively attacking me. The only good thing that came out of this was that it encouraged Austria to let me take St Pete a year earlier than I would have otherwise. This ends my discussion of Russia.

[edmgrim]

’05 – A new (but short-lived) Germany falls

First of all, apologies for any mistakes in the ’04 report …going through the game thread was a little confusing and my notes were not entirely clear. Hopefully I’ve corrected my mistakes.

We greet 05 with Germany about to lose its last center. I send a short note of commiseration to Germany, thanking him for joining and expressing that while I do not regret my action, I regret that we will not have more opportunities to negotiate in this game. I reiterate that I would welcome accompanying him in a future game. I am disappointed that Germany does not reply at least to acknowledge.
Moving on….

I’m pretty upset with Russia. I gave him a roadmap (and thanks to Germany’s ill-chosen cooperation) a way where he could have saved Warsaw last year. Nevertheless, Russia still has some potential for life and usefulness to me. I reiterate my promise to him for a safe Sweden and St/ Pete, notably not saying anything about Norway. I show him exactly what to do, writing out the orders explicitly. He rewards me by moving into Norway, effectively destroying any hope of saving Moscow and forcing me to take whatever I can from him as quickly as possible.

I send Russia a (somewhat angry) message pointing out that he persists in attacking the only power on his border that has never taken a single one of his centers (and from whom he has taken one) while enabling the two powers who have been attacking him all game (ok, for one turn, Austria was attacking Turkey, but seriously).

I send him a comprehensive list of scenarios (eight in total) that he has along with the likelihoods for success. (Ok, I leave out a couple, including a couple variants of the attack I am intending to launch). The key point to my message is that ’05 can end with Russia still in control. In 3 out of seven, he loses 3 out of his 4 remaining centers. There is one case where he can guarantee he only loses two centers. In all but two cases, he loses Moscow. And there are a few cases where I leave the door open for my cooperation [i](still – I’m a masochist that way)

In true Russian Form, he chooses to do something completely different. And I am not sorry to see Norway, and Sweden fall. Moscow holds, not because he adequately defended it but because Turkey and Austria were not on the same page. Is it a miscommunication or is their alliance beginning to crumble? All I know is that Austria was counting on my to cut St. Pete’s support, which I was happy to de even if Austria and I were about to go to war. My only (small) concern is that he moved his fleet from Norway into Norwegian Sea. What was he thinking? I would spare him so that he could threaten my home?

OK, he can turn that fleet into a mosquito. If he destroys St. Pete then maybe that rogue fleet can become a nuisance circling around my mainland, hoping to land a center before I take St. Pete. But noooooooooo! In true Russian form, in the build/destroy, he destroys that fleet anyway. And preserves Livonia. Ok, Livonia is a minor problem because he threatens Germany, but I can handle that. If his goal was to give me a headache, then having that fleet as a distraction in my waters would have been his best move. But I digress…

In other news I am noticing that I need some Armies if I am to penetrate Russia. Since Norway, Sweden, and Berlin are not guaranteed, I make a deal with France to give him Holland so I can destroy that fleet. It will turn out that the offer was unnecessary, as I would have gotten three builds. But by ceding, France ends up with a build and I get to re-build my destroyed fleet in a better place anyway. It’s a win-win (although France will not be entirely pleased with my new LVP fleet come ’06. But I’m getting ahead of myself. I receive inquiries asking whether that Holland negotiated and warning me about my southern exposure. I answer them with due ambiguity.

I’ve also (finally) convinced France to get out of dodge in MAO and make his way to the MED.

At the end of the year, Turkey builds a fleet in Const. France a Fleet in Marseilles (finally!) and I have armies in Lvp and Edi as well as a fleet in LVP.

I think we still have a year or two more for the middle game, but some unexpected events in 06 bring the end game closer than expected… Stay tuned.

[RedCandle]

RedCandle here: I think my diplomacy and tactics as replacement Germany were analogous to Hail Mary passes multiplied by a factor of at least 4. I could have done the rational and expected strategy, which was issue a series of mutual hold orders or bravely run away from approaching forces. However, I didn't think that would be fun, and I also didn't think that satisfied the duty of the replacement player to do whatever he could to salvage a bad situation. With this in mind, the Ratings Shield protected me in more than one way. Since I literally had nothing to lose except the original Germany's units, I could afford to try the Hail Mary knowing it was probably going to fail, but it would never succeed if I didn't try it. So, I tried, and England with France promptly moved against me. Was it a rational strategy? No. Do I regret it? No. And, once there was nothing else I could do, I checked out of the game and only paid attention to it at intervals. But, I kept up a private discussion with England, which I thought was enjoyable.

At any rate, I hope everyone enjoyed the game. Thanks again!

RC

[edmgrim]

We interrupt this AAR recount for some brief comments about Dinamo's and Red Candle's entries

Speaking to Dinamo's perception of Italy and the fragility of heir relationship: DInamo, it would seem was spot on in his opinion (and as will be examined in greater detail soon). I, on the other hand was completely oblivious of the risk. My assessment of Italy was that he was a rather shrewd player and capable of understanding and adapting to the twists and turns of the game... until it wasn't.

Regarding Germany and his approach. I've already said I liked (new) Germany and his comments here accentuate exactly why. I try to take a very similar approach to game in which I sub. In fact, it is arguable that I often play harder when I take a surrendered position than I do one that I started from the beginning. Regardless, he brings up something which I feel is a tremendous shortcoming in most of the people I encounter in Diplomacy, both online and in F2F, but particularly in online. That is the willingness (or more accurately the unwillingness) of players in weakened positions to recognize opportunities that are available by taking proposals to their attackers in the interest of turning the tide in a different direction. It often does not work, but when it does, the results can be only that much more satisfying. Two of the most memorable games of Diplomacy that I have played come to mind:

A solo I earned after taking a surrendered Italy with only one center -- Yes, it is doable. I don't recall all the details. What I do remember is that I came in at a point where I (Italy) was the 4th in a situation where all three of the other powers wanted my center (outside Italy). For all intents and purposes, I was the stalemate. Although I reviewed the prior Italy's message history, I made a point of not putting a lot of weight on what had been said. Instead I went to all three powers and offered my single unit as a "pawn" for their progress. As long as the orders they gave me put me in a center at the end of Fall, I would do their bidding. I think it was Turkey that took me up and he saw the benefits of helping me retake my homeland and when I had re-taken Venice, saw an added advantage of enabling me to build a forward Fleet by helping me keep Venice open when I took Naples. From there, things took off.

A solo by someone else where I made it to the end with a single unit -- OK, this was a pyrric victory at best for me as I still ended up with a loss. But I got my satisfaction. I don't remember if I was Russia or Turkey in this one. I just know that I had been allied with the other and thought I had a good thing going when my ally abruptly switched sides and joined with Austria to deal me a fatal blow -- If I recall, we (I thought) were in a position to do the same to Austria, so the rationale for the switch did not make sense to me. --

In any case, and perhaps I am letting on too much here, I'm the vindictive sort. If I get stabbed, I'm not above dedicating myself to the sole purpose of ensuring that the one who stabbed me meets with a similar fate. And that's what I did here. Even though Austria and I had been enemies, I went to him with a similar proposal to that I did with Italy before me: I asked that he keep me alive until he needed my cetnter for his 17th and, that not being possible, at least make sure I outlived the ally who stabbed me. I became a huge thorn in everybody's side and Germany, i seem to recall, was particularly angry at me for facilitating Austria's progress into Western Europe. (My former ally, took things in stride, I'll add. We kept in tough throughout the game trading good natured insults with each other.) In the end, Austria never had to kill me off.

All this is a round about way of saying:

Good communicators can snatch hope out of defeat as long as they keep a conversation going

Never be too proud to join (or rejoin) forces with a former foe -- even an ally who had previously stabbed you

[edmgrim]

Quick note, I was very busy today and couldn’t get to Today’s installment. I’m going to try to finish everything up tomorrow, as my schedule is starting to tighten up and I’m not sure I have the band with to write quite as much as I Braden so far.

[Dinamo]

04

The year started out with England, Italy and myself agreeing to make it look like I was stabbing Italy. The hope was that the other nations would try to form an alliance and share their thoughts and potentially their orders with Italy. So I moved my fleets to the Med and occupied Piedmont. The real goal was to convoy my army to Albania in the fall. Unfortunately in the fall Italy decided not to order his part of the convoy. If I'm correct Austria had managed to make him concerned as to my real intentions. I tried to explain to Italy that I had done nothing against him and I had ordered as agreed. I'd say it was around this time that I finally had had enough of Italy and being forced to tread very carefully with him and if I'm correct this is about the time England and I started discussing the possibility of a 2 way draw.

Austria also got back in touch and we arranged a few things as we both felt the need to eliminate Italy due to his inconsistencies.

05

In the north it was a year that I took Holland and England took Kiel (as arranged). England also took Scandinavia, which was a slight cause for concern as I didn't want him outnumbering my builds.

[Dinamo]

Regarding the new Germany. Unfortunately he was doomed from the start. Both England and I talked about it, but we decided that it was too late to change our course and we decided to continue our push to eliminate him. A shame as he was a much better communicator than the original Germany.