condude1 wrote:That's a field I have experience in, I can give you some stats and my opinion on how balanced they were from a GM's perspective.
A Shot in the Dark: The mafia's kill was in the hands of a third party, who didn't know their identities. Ran as 9-3-1, with the town having a blocker, and doctor, while the mafia had a jailor and rolecop. One mafia (Harb) ended up getting shot by his ally, and the others fell in rapid succession. Effectively 9-4, with no control over the NK was a slaughter.
Hot Potato: Rand as 8-3. Mafia NK resolved at a random point in the day, you knew if you were the target, and could pass it off to other players. The town played really well, one mafioso ended up exploding to their own NK, and the town sailed to victory. No roles. 8-3, decisive town victory.
Mafia having an unreliable NK is an advantage to the town. If a mafioso can be killed by their own NK, the unreliable NK is worth AT LEAST 2 townies in my experience, possibly more.
I said this at the time and stand by it, if I'd been the assassin in Shot in the Dark, I would have let the game run without a night kill. The risk of killing a scum player who's just playing really well is just too much. Town won that one, but didn't really deserve to: the assassin killing Harb was just too devastating a blow to come back from.
Mafia also got really unlucky in Hot Potato. It's not all that likely the scum are going to get 'sploded by the potato, but they did in that game. AND in both games, the first scum killed were the ones killed by the night-kill mechanic. In my opinion the first kill is the most important, because knowing that alignment reveal makes scumhunting easier.
I guess I'm saying I mostly agree with you, but think that these two examples were probably both outliers in how INCREDIBLY advantageous the mechanic is to the town.