Fall 1850

[Morg]

hypothetical...I missed where Great Britain has accepted...

Are we really going to end this in a 4 way draw...

Great Britain & Spain accepted via PM

[asudevil]

Ok, so finally got to look at the map...you gained NYK...even if you lose LOU, you still break even...you cant lose NYK without Haroon helping and then losing his own SC...

Im confused as to why you feel your position is so untenable...

I played it out for you. After this year my western line breaks and there is no way to stop the bleeding. Look if you think I'm such a solo threat then why not accept the 4 way draw?

I really dont want to end a 5 person game in a 4way draw...

But Im last...so I dont know how much I want to hold this up.

I know if I decline, you will turn that into "see he wants to solo, go attack him..."

So I think I could do better than a 4way draw had this played out...I will accept the draw...and hate myself while doing it.

[presser84]

Ok, so finally got to look at the map...you gained NYK...even if you lose LOU, you still break even...you cant lose NYK without Haroon helping and then losing his own SC...

Im confused as to why you feel your position is so untenable...

I played it out for you. After this year my western line breaks and there is no way to stop the bleeding. Look if you think I'm such a solo threat then why not accept the 4 way draw?

I really dont want to end a 5 person game in a 4way draw...

But Im last...so I dont know how much I want to hold this up.

I know if I decline, you will turn that into "see he wants to solo, go attack him..."

So I think I could do better than a 4way draw had this played out...I will accept the draw...and hate myself while doing it.

And so it ends. The devil did not fall for my trap... Oh well...Should we start an AAR or let Morg start it in case he had specific questions about his new variant?

[asudevil]

I knew it was a trap...If I declined, I knew I would get killed.

[presser84]

I knew it was a trap...If I declined, I knew I would get killed.

Actually that wasn't the case what might have gotten you killed was if you actually attacked Spain. If you did he said he would work with me to stop you but he was planning on attacking me.

[asudevil]

Yeah, I probably would have convoyed over, but also I would have helped him take ALA...

[presser84]

The thing is my analysis rings true still. I was going to be either even or -1 after that year. I'd keep NYK or slip into MTR I hadn't made up my mind. Depending on what I did and what GB did may have kept both NYK and VIR but I was losing LOU or ALA.

Lets assume you convoy to CUB and push NMX into PAN.

You would be a 9 centers to my at most 12.

Let's play it out at 9 v 12. With me in VIR, NYK but losing ALA only.

You would likely build army NMX. You can easily support WCB to HAV and keep that and with the army in PAN you can cut AUS and push into SAN. If you did it in the fall you'd ensure my retreat to MON would be minimal. Even if Spain begins to move BER to BAH and MBB to KYW to stop you he'll be too late. Assuming I get Spain to take some heat off me from you stab and I can slip into MTR. You'd be +2 and I'd be +0. 11 to 12 and the entire west is colapsing. The only thing that gives me the game there is if I get a quick strike into GB and get both of those centers and miraculously retkake ALA.


I'd say my win probability is low. I'd say 10% since I would have needed your stab of Spain with that convoy and then him to basically king-maker me. Yours was much close to 50-60% since you had superior position on me and Spain.