Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Postby super_dipsy » 25 Jun 2016, 19:56

Malevolence wrote:@super- I've heard the 'Americans were the original Brexiteers'' argument many times. I still don't buy it. The US left an empire and fought a war to do it. It had no control over the policies that affected it within the British Empire. (eventually, the American colonists got one rep. Not enough to make progress) Britain, in the EU (almost said has) HAD significant representation as one of the Big 3 Euro countries. It continued to hold the balance as it had always done between France and Germany and maintained a position of global power.

Um...I think you are thinking about something someone else said :) . I have actually never heard an argument that Americans were the original Brexiteers, seems to me that is a completely different situation. And I certainly don't think I ever made that argument.

joe92 wrote:The Royal Family will (and probably have already, but secrecy laws prevent us from knowing) veto any bill which harms the landed gentry's ability to hoard these vast swaths of land they don't use.

Ah. I understand now. Thanks, 'nuff said.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Rolan A Doobie » 25 Jun 2016, 20:42

rd45 wrote:The whole nationalism/sovereignty thing maybe looks different in the US. Different culture, different history, different priorities. Here, the idea of a nation or a nationality or nationalism itself is (for many people) fairly nuanced.


It's fairly nuanced in the US too.

Here's a handy little song to help folks that aren't from around here see the various shades of what nationalism looks like here...

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Re: Brexit

Postby Malevolence » 25 Jun 2016, 21:26

Patriotism is not evil. Nationalism is not necessarily evil perse, either. But historically, it has yet to bring any real good end to the nation that utilized it or its surroundings. Napoleon, Germany, Soviets, etc.

Furthermore, I don't see it as in anyone's interest to fan the flames of nationalism in Europe. It's been tried many times. The EU has literally made war between states unthinkable. I think it's best if we leave it that way.

Apparently England and Wales disagree.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Malevolence » 25 Jun 2016, 21:29

Malevolence wrote:Patriotism is not evil. Nationalism is not necessarily evil perse, either. But historically, it has yet to bring any real good end to the nation that utilized it or its surroundings. Napoleon, Germany, Soviets, etc.

Furthermore, I don't see it as in anyone's interest to fan the flames of nationalism in Europe. It's been tried many times. The EU has literally made war between states unthinkable. I think it's best if we leave it that way.

Apparently England and Wales disagree.


Addendum: lest it be misconstrued that I think European nationalism is somehow uniquely flawed. I am equally as stalwart that the resurgent American nationalism we see in this election is also extremely dangerous. Again, dangerous, it's not guaranteed to bring about the end of the Post WWII world order. But it just might. And that's not a risk I'm willing to take.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Malevolence » 25 Jun 2016, 21:32

PeytonManThing wrote: It isn't going to cause war or economic collapse or make relations between England and the rest of Europe collapse, like I've heard. That's just fear mongering.


Not today.
Could it be a push towards breakdown of the EU? Yes
Could a breakup of the EU invite other powers (Russia, China, India, etc) to have larger influence in Europe? Yes
Would that make NATO harder to act upon, as certain nations cease seeing Europe and the US/Canada as their main benefactors? Yes
Does that lead to increased uncertainty and instability in the world? Yes

None of the above guarantees WWIII, you're right. It's still way too close for anyone's comfort.
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Re: Brexit

Postby V » 26 Jun 2016, 02:10

A small historical point of correction needed following a contribution in reference to Britain's colonial exploits of a long time ago, which had absolutely nothing to do with the origin of the term "Great" Britain.

"Great" Britain was actually first used many hundred years before that to differentiate between the islands (now known as Britain) and the piece of France (now known as Brittany).

This has nothing to do with the EU debate, but I thought our Dutch contributor may like to review his British history for correctness :-)
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Re: Brexit

Postby Jegpeg » 26 Jun 2016, 03:05

Malevolence wrote:
PeytonManThing wrote: It isn't going to cause war or economic collapse or make relations between England and the rest of Europe collapse, like I've heard. That's just fear mongering.


Not today.
Could it be a push towards breakdown of the EU? Yes
Could a breakup of the EU invite other powers (Russia, China, India, etc) to have larger influence in Europe? Yes
Would that make NATO harder to act upon, as certain nations cease seeing Europe and the US/Canada as their main benefactors? Yes
Does that lead to increased uncertainty and instability in the world? Yes

None of the above guarantees WWIII, you're right. It's still way too close for anyone's comfort.


I think NATO is responsible for peace in Western Europe since 1945. I have linked an interesting article which argues that if German plans to push through with an EU army would weaken NATO and encourage Russia, China and the likes that they do not need to fear if they want to carry out their political aims militarily
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/05/09/it-is-an-eu-army-that-could-bring-about-war/

Britain is still and always will be in Europe, we voted to leave the EU. We should work with other countries n Europe not be subsumed into a superstate.

I find it ironic that people say the vote is invalid because the electorate was lied to. There were some outlandish claims on both sides but nothing as bad as what was kept secret from the electorate before the 1975 vote:

We all know now that the being in the EU involves a loss of sovereignty, thou the remains still under play the long term aims of the EU,back in the 70s Ted Heath said:
“There are some in this country who fear that in going into Europe we shall in some way sacrifice independence and sovereignty. These fears, I need hardly say, are completely unjustified.”

while being aware that the Werner plan could lead to.
“the ultimate creation of a European federal state, with a single currency. All the basic instruments of national economic management (fiscal, monetary, incomes and regional policies) would ultimately be handed over to the central federal authorities. The Werner report suggests that this radical transformation of present Communities should be accomplished within a decade”. (PRO/FCO 30/789)

It took us 30 years to find out.

Living in Scotland I am concerned by the attitude of the SNP. Leaving EU is a momentous change with a lot of uncertainty, at such a time we need everything else to be as stable as possible. 2 Years ago the people of Scotland voted to remain part of the UK. This includes that it will be subject to the decisions of the UK as a whole whether through Westminster or referendum. Now that the people of Scotland don't like the decision of the UK as a whole demand are being made for another vote on independence. While for some it is frustration and shock at the vote not going their way though I suspect for the SNP it is more an excuse to try again at getting their ultimate objective of an independent Scotland. (I am pretty sure if Scotland does vote for independence there will not be an indie ref 3 when it is discovered that Scotland is forced to pay an import Tax on all goods imported from RUK and passport control takes 2 hours on the M6 at Carlisle.)
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Re: Brexit

Postby musashisamurai » 26 Jun 2016, 04:03

(I am pretty sure if Scotland does vote for independence there will not be an indie ref 3 when it is discovered that Scotland is forced to pay an import Tax on all goods imported from RUK and passport control takes 2 hours on the M6 at Carlisle.)


LOL.

The EU told Britain that if they raise tariffs on member-nations or restrict visas, or do anything against the spirit of the EU-free trade, open travel, etc-they would restrict their access to European markets.

And lets face it, it'll hurt both sides but France and Germany can handle and keep the rest afloat. The UK, however, will destroy themselves. You guys have an economy that is 80% services, and relies on selling those services to the EU. You guys also function as a financial center in the EU/world (London). Suddenly, that financial center is going to disappear faster than Wall Street during a Sander's presidency.

Living in Scotland I am concerned by the attitude of the SNP. Leaving EU is a momentous change with a lot of uncertainty, at such a time we need everything else to be as stable as possible. 2 Years ago the people of Scotland voted to remain part of the UK. This includes that it will be subject to the decisions of the UK as a whole whether through Westminster or referendum.


You can't have your pie and eat it too. Either you accept the 1975 referendum that you will be in the EU, or you will dislike it because of a loss of sovereignty. OR you can believe the people of Scotland have the same mixed feelings about sovereignty, and deserve to vote on their freedoms, after another country overruled there own vote.

Lets face it, Cameron is resigning to delay invoking Article 50, because the Leave campaign cannot take a majority (anymore than the Remain can, I guess), in the hopes that another referendum can happen or some politician decides to ignore the results (it ISN'T legally binding). But that's just delaying the inevitable. In 20-30 years, the UK will be about as relevant as say Italy or Greece, minus Northern Ireland, minus Scotland, and minus their significant financial center.

I suppose the only worse fall would be America post-Trump.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Malevolence » 26 Jun 2016, 04:38

It seems pretty clear that everyone (including the Leave campaigners) is stalling right now. It appears even those most in favor of Brexit don't quite have the enthusiasm now that they actually have to make it happen. Maybe parliament will stop it, maybe they wait 4 months before invoking A50, and elections on the continent 'change circumstances' and all of a sudden Britain decides it has a better deal and will be staying after all.

That's still 4 months of market uncertainty and paranoia, but better for everyone than a full on exit from the EU.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Malevolence » 26 Jun 2016, 04:40

@Jeg- while I certainly see your point that an independent EU military would have the capacity to act independently of NATO and the United States, I would also posit that European and American interests are sufficiently aligned that a Federal European Army could work in tandem with the United States and NATO and serve as a much more effective military force. [Much easier to logistically organize 3 militaries together (Europe, Canada, America) than 28.)

However, while I think brexit does push us closer to a European superstate, it remains an academic question, as does the prospect of an integrated European armed forces.
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