Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Postby TheHappyItalian » 24 Jun 2016, 07:12

I wish all you Brits and Scots and Irish and Welsh and whoever else I forgot the best in these uncertain times.

May you do as well as you can.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Rolan A Doobie » 24 Jun 2016, 12:46

Despite watching John Oliver's segment about it last week, I don't fully understand the particular complexities involved here in this decision.

But I do know that Trump apparently thinks it's a wonderful idea, which really tells me all I need to know.
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Re: Brexit

Postby joe92 » 24 Jun 2016, 15:49

Image

People who will be dead in a decade and not have to live with the consequences have voted for what the young will have to live with but don't want.

I hope the leave campaign can follow through on all their promises, otherwise it's not going to be a fun road ahead. They've already back-peddled on the promise to secure £350 million of funding that would have been spent on EU membership for the NHS so we'll see what else they'll back-peddle on over the coming weeks and months.
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Re: Brexit

Postby super_dipsy » 24 Jun 2016, 16:07

Rolan A Doobie wrote:Despite watching John Oliver's segment about it last week, I don't fully understand the particular complexities involved here in this decision.


Gosh, where to start!

Well, I guess some of the key points are as follows:
1. Currently UK legislation has been becoming increasingly more intertwined with EU legislation in all areas. Leave means that every single one of these acts needs to be reworked if required, decision taken on whether to repeal or not / salvage / leave untouched etc.. Realistically given the speed of legislative change this is a multi-year operation

2. Currently UK has to trade with other countries based on Euro deals. So if the EU says clothing has to have the following tariff, that is what we have to do. Moving out of the EU means that these agreements no longer apply to us. So trade agreements need to be established between the UK and all its trading partners. One concern is that there is currently a lack of skills in the UK civil service to negotiate trade deals because for many years they have been negotiated at a European level.

3. A major potential issue in the UK is friction caused by the demographic splits. As Joe pointed out, the young predominantly wanted to stay while the old wanted to leave. England and Wales wanted to Leave while Scotland and NI wanted to Stay. London wanted to stay but the Shires wanted to leave. This clearly stores up a lot of potential for ill feeling in the future.

4. There is a potential for significant contamination across Europe. Many European countries have populations that do not have majority support for the EU. There is a massive democratic deficit between the politicians and the civil populations. Already a number of other countries are starting to agitate about wanting their own referendums. What will this decision mean to the EU as a whole? The pressures (particularly immigration) are not going to get any less over the next few years, and cracks would be a severe disruption to the EU project. Also you have to keep in mind that the UK along with Germany were by far the largest paymasters; removing the UK membership fee will cause ructions. A few months ago the Irish PM said if Britain goes Ireland will probably have to follow because they would not be prepared to pay their share of our net contribution.

Those are probably some of the biggest reason why this has brought up some considerable complexities.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Rolan A Doobie » 24 Jun 2016, 17:10

super_dipsy wrote:
Rolan A Doobie wrote:Despite watching John Oliver's segment about it last week, I don't fully understand the particular complexities involved here in this decision.


Gosh, where to start!

Well, I guess some of the key points are as follows:
1. Currently UK legislation has been becoming increasingly more intertwined with EU legislation in all areas. Leave means that every single one of these acts needs to be reworked if required, decision taken on whether to repeal or not / salvage / leave untouched etc.. Realistically given the speed of legislative change this is a multi-year operation

2. Currently UK has to trade with other countries based on Euro deals. So if the EU says clothing has to have the following tariff, that is what we have to do. Moving out of the EU means that these agreements no longer apply to us. So trade agreements need to be established between the UK and all its trading partners. One concern is that there is currently a lack of skills in the UK civil service to negotiate trade deals because for many years they have been negotiated at a European level.

3. A major potential issue in the UK is friction caused by the demographic splits. As Joe pointed out, the young predominantly wanted to stay while the old wanted to leave. England and Wales wanted to Leave while Scotland and NI wanted to Stay. London wanted to stay but the Shires wanted to leave. This clearly stores up a lot of potential for ill feeling in the future.

4. There is a potential for significant contamination across Europe. Many European countries have populations that do not have majority support for the EU. There is a massive democratic deficit between the politicians and the civil populations. Already a number of other countries are starting to agitate about wanting their own referendums. What will this decision mean to the EU as a whole? The pressures (particularly immigration) are not going to get any less over the next few years, and cracks would be a severe disruption to the EU project. Also you have to keep in mind that the UK along with Germany were by far the largest paymasters; removing the UK membership fee will cause ructions. A few months ago the Irish PM said if Britain goes Ireland will probably have to follow because they would not be prepared to pay their share of our net contribution.

Those are probably some of the biggest reason why this has brought up some considerable complexities.



2. I don't know...well, anything...about the UK's most frequent/favored trading partners, but if those partners are other nations in Europe, won't most of those EU tariffs and other rules/regulations apply to the goods that are made in those nations? It seems like if UK is going to have any meaningful amount of trade with other European nations, those conditions will still be applicable in some form.

3. So, young/urban wanted to stay and old/rural wanted to leave (I assume Shires is Brit-speak for rural). Seems like pretty much the same demographic split here for people for or against Trump's "build a wall" nonsense along the US-Mexico border and the mass deportation of all "illegal" Mexicans and all Muslim people.

4. This part seems somewhat analogous to the "maker/taker" states stuff here. In some states, people pay more in federal taxes than they get back in federal funding....and in other states, people pay less in federal taxes than they get back in funding. Political right-wing mouthpieces have declared the latter group to be "welfare queen" states, which is somewhat ironic considering that the bulk of those "taker" states lean heavily toward the right-wing themselves, such as Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, and New Mexico. Mississippi in particular gets about $3 in federal spending/support for every $1 they spend in federal tax. I imagine if there was a way for the left-leaning "maker" states to stop sending so much money to those "taker" states, that would also create considerable ructions.
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Re: Brexit

Postby super_dipsy » 24 Jun 2016, 20:17

Rolan A Doobie wrote:2. I don't know...well, anything...about the UK's most frequent/favored trading partners, but if those partners are other nations in Europe, won't most of those EU tariffs and other rules/regulations apply to the goods that are made in those nations? It seems like if UK is going to have any meaningful amount of trade with other European nations, those conditions will still be applicable in some form.

Ah, you misunderstand. While in the EU, the UK was able to trade with other EU members (in many things but not all) in a single market without import/export tariffs. Outside of the EU, UK will need a trade agreement with the EU. There is no way the EU would agree to this on the old terms, because then we would have the benefit of the common market without the pain of all the rest of the EU stuff. There is some debate on this subject and there will be much more. On the one hand, firms like BMW are screaming for a favourable trade deal because they sell a hell of a lot of cars in the UK and do not want them to become loaded with punitive tariffs. There is a huge trade imbalance between what the UK sells to the EU today and what comes the other way, so a lot of EU firms will want to see a 'kind' deal to protect their sales. But the EU bosses absolutely do not want to do this because it is important (as they have already stated today) that any deal is sufficiently punitive as to stop other countries jumping from the pack. But to be honest, the UK wants to try to drive more sales to the RoW anyway because the EU is a shrinking proportion of the worldwide market, and it is here that the UK will hope to benefit. For example, it could trade steel with non-EU countries without any tariff which it was never allowed to do while in the EU. Or more importantly, take the example of the Free Trade agreement that has been staggering on between the US and the EU for ages and ages because EU countries cannot agree. As a member of the EU, the UK could not negotiate separately on this; out of the EU, if the US and the UK want such an agreement they can make it work.

P.S. I should point out I am no expert and may well have some inaccuracies in this ;)
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Re: Brexit

Postby joe92 » 24 Jun 2016, 20:42

super_dipsy wrote:Or more importantly, take the example of the Free Trade agreement that has been staggering on between the US and the EU for ages and ages because EU countries cannot agree. As a member of the EU, the UK could not negotiate separately on this; out of the EU, if the US and the UK want such an agreement they can make it work.

If by this you mean TTIP, Europe was saving us there. The idea that an American company could sue our government because we have legislation that affects their profits is evil. The US and the EU would have eventually figured out a trade deal which was beneficial to both sides, and that horrendous clause would have been nowhere to be found.

By the way, the EU contains the majority of the richest countries in the world. Being in that special interest group was more beneficial than you let on. The EU had negotiated trade deals with Norway and Switzerland as we all know, but also South Korea and South Africa. It was inevitable that the States would soon be involved and other nations would be brought in. That market was only going to increase. Leaving the EU is without a doubt going to hurt us financially.
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Re: Brexit

Postby Malevolence » 24 Jun 2016, 20:59

Must feel sorrow for Queen Elizabeth who, assuming she maintains her good health for several more years, may have lived to see Britain go from the most powerful state in the history of the human race to an isolated union of England and Wales.
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Re: Brexit

Postby joe92 » 24 Jun 2016, 21:15

Malevolence wrote:Must feel sorrow for Queen Elizabeth who, assuming she maintains her good health for several more years, may have lived to see Britain go from the most powerful state in the history of the human race to an isolated union of England and Wales.

And to think if the hereditary privilege that a Royal Family epitomises didn't exist the working class would be better off and wouldn't be yelling about all those 'brown people'

Here's hoping she does live long enough to see how her very existence as a Monarch is ruining the lives of millions.
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Re: Brexit

Postby sjg11 » 24 Jun 2016, 21:38

So we left the EU. I'm disappointed, I voted to Remain.

Consequences of this are going to be:
1. I don't see how Scotland stays in the UK now. An important point in the Scottish independence referendum was that Scotland would be guaranteed to stay in the EU. This may be the straw that breaks the camel's back as far as Scotland's concerned.
2. Some form of economic loss. Not armageddon but it'll hurt. The EU will want us to lose from leaving it to keep other member states in the EU... but they also don't want us to collapse completely otherwise it could lead to wider economic issues across the continent which could lead to the disintegration of the EU itself. I imagine most EU states and the UK's relationship with the EU is going to have to find some balance between those two extremes. As for the UK... well when you have a trading agreement with largely beneficial terms ripping that up for no good reason isn't necessarily a particularly intelligent decision.
3. I think we're going to see a long period of Tory ascendancy in what's left of the UK. This, again, worries me. Without even going into the fact that I'm left of centre anyway, a lack of competition in parliamentary democracy isn't going to end well for the country.
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