Jeremy Corbyn

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Re: Jeremy Corbyn

Postby Octavious » 20 Jul 2016, 21:37

I feel it should be mentioned that Joe92 is financially invested in Corbyn's success, after placing a substantial and rather rash wager on his continued leadership.

I admit being somewhat confused by the Corbyn phenomenon. He commands extreme devotion from the Corbyn faithful, but believing in him to that extent demands some pretty extreme mind twisting. You have to believe not only that he is an honest man motivated by iron willed morality, but also that most of the PLP are self-serving Tories and enemies of the poor and disenfranchised, and that the New Labour Blair government was only a little short of evil. I haven't got a huge amount of time for many Labour MPs, but I have yet to meet one that I've not been convinced is in the business to make life better for the people they care about. The demonisation of them by Corbynistas has been appalling.

The Tories have never been as brutal in attacking Labour as Labour have been to themselves. It's grim stuff, and an embarrassment to modern democracy.
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Re: Jeremy Corbyn

Postby Octavious » 20 Jul 2016, 21:45

super_dipsy wrote:
WHSeward wrote:Mr. Hundal got it right, PM May's take on Corbyn is brutal.

I'm not normally a fan of thread necromancy, but this just brought to mind the possibility of a truly bizarre situation in Parliament which would be frankly hilarious. There are lots of pundits telling May that when Corbyn is re-elected as Labour leader in September she should seize her chance with the opposition in disarray to call a snap election. But I think they miss the fact that it doesn't work like that. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act (2011) would require May to propose a vote of no confidence in her own government, and she would then have to 'win' that vote. And of course, with the Labour party in disarray there is no way they would support the no confidence motion. So you would have the government proposing no confidence in itself and the opposition voting against the motion .... :roll:


The no confidence vote needs a simple majority, which the Tories can trigger on their own. You can also trigger an election without a no confidence vote if two thirds of MPs vote for it.

I suspect the latter is how it would actually happen. Labour would either have to vote for it as the Tories would want, or look like a shambolic bunch of cowards with no authority. Worse case for them is if they cowardly shy away from the election and the Tories trigger one by a no confidence vote anyway. Labour would be slaughtered.

The five year term is a bit of an illusion, really.
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Re: Jeremy Corbyn

Postby rd45 » 20 Jul 2016, 22:01

Octavious wrote:The Tories have never been as brutal in attacking Labour as Labour have been to themselves.

It's become a cliche to point this out since the last govt, but all political parties are coalitions. Some hold together more effectively than others. Labour right now is a bit like the former Yugoslavia after Tito died. One or more viable states might emerge in due course, but it's going to be messy for a while.
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Re: Jeremy Corbyn

Postby WHSeward » 21 Jul 2016, 00:18

super_dipsy wrote:I'm not normally a fan of thread necromancy...

:oops:

Being from California, I'd like to think of this more as thread recycling. :P I guess next time I can start a new thread. :idea:
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Re: Jeremy Corbyn

Postby beowulf7 » 21 Jul 2016, 00:47

If Corbyn win again (which is a reasonably likely scenario) I suspect Labour may fracture into centre-left and left-left factions. JC will feel quite happy running a popular, vocal protest party.
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Re: Jeremy Corbyn

Postby Jegpeg » 21 Jul 2016, 02:52

Octavious wrote:
super_dipsy wrote:
WHSeward wrote:Mr. Hundal got it right, PM May's take on Corbyn is brutal.

I'm not normally a fan of thread necromancy, but this just brought to mind the possibility of a truly bizarre situation in Parliament which would be frankly hilarious. There are lots of pundits telling May that when Corbyn is re-elected as Labour leader in September she should seize her chance with the opposition in disarray to call a snap election. But I think they miss the fact that it doesn't work like that. The Fixed Term Parliaments Act (2011) would require May to propose a vote of no confidence in her own government, and she would then have to 'win' that vote. And of course, with the Labour party in disarray there is no way they would support the no confidence motion. So you would have the government proposing no confidence in itself and the opposition voting against the motion .... :roll:


The no confidence vote needs a simple majority, which the Tories can trigger on their own. You can also trigger an election without a no confidence vote if two thirds of MPs vote for it.

I suspect the latter is how it would actually happen. Labour would either have to vote for it as the Tories would want, or look like a shambolic bunch of cowards with no authority. Worse case for them is if they cowardly shy away from the election and the Tories trigger one by a no confidence vote anyway. Labour would be slaughtered.

The five year term is a bit of an illusion, really.


If nearly all the conservative MPs vote that they have "no confidence in Her Majesty's Government" It would be pretty hard for them to immediately back Theresa May in a General election. Such an extreme case of working around the system would cost them votes and possibly the election. I think it would be too much of a risk.

They can call an early election without a no-confidence vote if they get a 2/3 majority but I can't see that happening.

They could repeal the fixed parliament act with a simple majority and while that would still be seen as doing it to their own ends it doesn't have the blatant lying that saying you have no confidence in the Government one minute and then immediately backing it for re-election. I don't think there will be an early election but if there is this is the route the Tories will take.
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Re: Jeremy Corbyn

Postby rd45 » 21 Jul 2016, 10:50

Jegpeg wrote: repeal the fixed parliament act with a simple majority

Not unrealistic. IIRC it was enacted as a short-term self-interested measure in the first place, so that the con-lib coalition lasted the full five years. Would at least be symmetrical if it was also repealed for short term self interest.
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Re: Jeremy Corbyn

Postby ferdy0 » 21 Jul 2016, 12:26

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Re: Jeremy Corbyn

Postby schocker » 21 Jul 2016, 17:59


Why is it leftists just can't leave us alone?
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Re: Jeremy Corbyn

Postby ferdy0 » 21 Jul 2016, 20:31

schocker2 wrote:Why is it leftists just can't leave us alone?


I'm a Labour voter.
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