Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby UFO Fever » 14 Jan 2019, 20:18

Zoomzip wrote:
UFO Fever wrote:Death, taxes, and Nanook scumreading me for...reasons


Well, in the last game, it probably helped that he was scum and could time waste scum reading you. Do you wonder if the same is happening here? From your POV, what is the difference?


This feels different this time, for reasons I also can't quite put my finger down on. I feel like scum Nanook would have voted me there instead of just POE shrugging at me but still keeping his first vote.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby Conq » 14 Jan 2019, 20:22

kimpossible wrote:See, this is also giving me pause. UDC is saying it seems like she was "dressing this up to be a more sophisticated thought process," but like, my impression of Shadow's read there is "snap read so I can try to triage where to put my limited time and attention." It doesn't seem "dressy" enough to be a "dressed up" thought process, if that makes any sense? It's so flip and not explained to death.

I appreciate this line of thought.

UDC is a very effective scum player. I understand his push on Shadow, and I think it makes sense from Town!UDC, but I also think UDC overstates his case at times, and this "dress it up" piece is the same thing that pinged me, for the same reason above.

Shadow's snap read on Durga is surprising and her explanation does not make complete sense. But I am having a really hard time using it to make a conclusion about her alignment.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby nanooktheeskimo » 14 Jan 2019, 20:26

kimpossible wrote:Okay, so... I'm trying to look back over Shadow. This was how she made her Durga read:

shadowface wrote:Also, I'm a miller. I see Durga is too, and I'm inclined to believe her because her 'reason' is similar to mine: there was a justification for my millerness in my role. I think it would be unlikely for her to lie about that in a way consistent with the flavor I got.


I'm trying for a moment to put myself in the shoes of a Town!Shadow who got a role PM saying something like "You will reveal as scum on IR, because Principal Skinner has connections to the mayor's office." And she sees Durga saying "I am a miller because I'm a snitch." Might she have assumed something like "Durga is Willie the Snitch, and her role says 'You will reveal as scum on IR because you snitch on people and nobody likes you' and she just paraphrased her role PM"?

I don't know, guys. That doesn't seem like as huge a leap as I think some folks are arguing it is.

This is where she states that she has an ability, and that miller is not her role but rather just related to flavor: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=59125&p=970744#p970744

I saw that as a smoking gun when Durga stated she was just a miller, no other role. Apparently nobody else sees it that way.

I don't know. On reread, I feel like the way she's defending that initial read remains consistent. At the same time, she's devoted a lot of her time to arguing over it, which is a great place for scum busywork. At the same time, she's been arguing over it because she's been grilled on making a snap read, something I sure as shit have done plenty of times as town.

Am I out alone on a limb here in thinking maaaaaaybe this whole thing is a giant rabbit hole we've run down the wrong way? I mean, I kinda hate relinquishing the only scumread I've felt even vaguely secure in, but it hasn't been sitting right with me since I went back to scrutinize her opening.

I mean you’re obviously not alone on that limb, since I expressed doubts, like, a handful posts above this.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby nanooktheeskimo » 14 Jan 2019, 20:26

Zoomzip wrote:
UFO Fever wrote:Death, taxes, and Nanook scumreading me for...reasons


Well, in the last game, it probably helped that he was scum and could time waste scum reading you. Do you wonder if the same is happening here? From your POV, what is the difference?

^this is a solid question.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby kimpossible » 14 Jan 2019, 20:31

Conq wrote:
kimpossible wrote:See, this is also giving me pause. UDC is saying it seems like she was "dressing this up to be a more sophisticated thought process," but like, my impression of Shadow's read there is "snap read so I can try to triage where to put my limited time and attention." It doesn't seem "dressy" enough to be a "dressed up" thought process, if that makes any sense? It's so flip and not explained to death.

I appreciate this line of thought.

UDC is a very effective scum player. I understand his push on Shadow, and I think it makes sense from Town!UDC, but I also think UDC overstates his case at times, and this "dress it up" piece is the same thing that pinged me, for the same reason above.

Shadow's snap read on Durga is surprising and her explanation does not make complete sense. But I am having a really hard time using it to make a conclusion about her alignment.

Does it give you any thoughts on Chuck's alignment? Is he overstating too much?

Where's your head on scumreads right now?

PPE: Sorry Nanook, I may have overlooked it. I'll go look.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby kimpossible » 14 Jan 2019, 20:35

@Nanook: Ok, I think I see you expressing doubts on the wagon, but not for the same reasons I am? Do you have something other than "Easy wagon is easy"?
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby Conq » 14 Jan 2019, 20:36

I'm continuing my full-thread read. I'm now on page 22 and grappling with ZZ's Cop cluster reveal.

First, reading about Cop A, Cop B, etc. is boring. From this point forward, let's please use the following nomenclature:

Cop A = ZZ
Cop B = Clarice Starling
Cop C = Axel Foley
Cop D = Marge Gunderson

Thank you.

Okay, so we have three cops who have all returned a guilty scan on Player 1. Let's call him Hannibal. And Marge has an Inno scan on ZZ.

Question for ZZ: Has Hannibal claimed Miller?

If Hannibal has not claimed Miller, then it seems incredibly likely that Hannibal is scum. Considering that there are many powers at play in the game, and it may be very advantageous to avoid lynching towny powers and successfully lynch scum powers, I would not wait to lynch Hannibal. I think we should lynch Hannibal today.

Who is Hannibal?
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby kimpossible » 14 Jan 2019, 20:37

Conq, I can answer that because I asked him the same question earlier. Hannibal has not claimed miller.
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby Durga » 14 Jan 2019, 20:39

Conq wrote:I'm continuing my full-thread read. I'm now on page 22 and grappling with ZZ's Cop cluster reveal.

First, reading about Cop A, Cop B, etc. is boring. From this point forward, let's please use the following nomenclature:

Cop A = ZZ
Cop B = Clarice Starling
Cop C = Axel Foley
Cop D = Marge Gunderson

Thank you.

Okay, so we have three cops who have all returned a guilty scan on Player 1. Let's call him Hannibal. And Marge has an Inno scan on ZZ.

Question for ZZ: Has Hannibal claimed Miller?

If Hannibal has not claimed Miller, then it seems incredibly likely that Hannibal is scum. Considering that there are many powers at play in the game, and it may be very advantageous to avoid lynching towny powers and successfully lynch scum powers, I would not wait to lynch Hannibal. I think we should lynch Hannibal today.

Who is Hannibal?


Apparently Hannibal is one of the cops?
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Re: Fable Mafia 12- Graduation Day Game Thread

Postby Conq » 14 Jan 2019, 20:45

A few other thoughts on our #CopCluster.

Image

It is super interesting that 3 cops came out with the same result on one player, and it is a guilty scan. But, from a balancing standpoint, it is crazy to think that town has more than one real cop unless there is lots of weird stuff at play.

So, what factors could be at play that make cop results difficult to interpret?

I posted earlier about the Scum Role/Cover Role tradeoff that scum make each night. I suggested that perhaps that tradeoff impacts an alignment reveal as well. In other words, scum can adopt a town cover role for a night, and that would allow them to receive an innocent scan for that night only. Giving scum that ability and access to the cop thread (e.g., the rat), would give them a lot of flexibility.

Though, that seems less likely already because if scum have access to the cop cluster, and the ability to don a town cover role that impacts a scan, you would have thought that Hannibal would have worn his good guy on cape Night 0.
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