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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 09 Jan 2017, 23:15
by Happymeal
Objectively, if one believes I'm scum, you are in pretty good hands. There's likely only 2 - 3 scum in this game (3 max probably).

I probably should save this for the AAR, but now that I look back on it, it's pretty funny the whole slip thing. This isn't going to save me so don't interpret this as a last minute way to save my ass, but, funnily enough, I did look at my PM prior to making that post and there was actually no number to begin with. The whole "I didn't check my PM" thing was just a panicked response even though I had a fully believable excuse ready for me in just not looking at my role PM well enough.

Also, I want to make it clear that this is no one's fault but my own for the loss of the team I'm on. Obviously, if I'm town, you guys still have a good chance of winning and if I'm mafia, well, then you need to play very well probably. Good luck folks!

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 09 Jan 2017, 23:16
by mhsmith0
Keirador wrote:...
I'm with Telleo on this one. The whole issue is that the process around your read is very opaque to non-mhsmith players. When someone asks for clarification, responding with "well what do you think my process might have been?" definitely comes off as scum who doesn't have a great answer to the question. "Turning a question around" is most assuredly a form of declining to answer.


Turning a question around also demonstrates curiosity about the questioner's thought process, and is fundamentally null at worst, unless you have reason to believe that I couldn't explain my thought process.

Telleo wrote:...

If this were fair engagement, no one would ever get anything answered. I'd ask you what you were thinking, you'd ask me what I thought you were thinking, I'd ask you what you thought I thought you were thinking, and so on ad nauseam.

If you had answered my question, THEN it would have become reasonable to try to delve into my thinking. But you don't get to skip explaining yourself to demand that I do your work for you.


It would be ludicrous to do that for every question. That does not make it unreasonable to do it for SOME questions.

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 09 Jan 2017, 23:16
by condude1
There are just under 24 hours until the day ends.

The current vote situation:

Happymeal (9): Crunkus, dodgy56, Harb, Jordan767, Keirador, mhsmith0, shadowfriend1, sjg11, Telleo
mhsmith0 (1): Happymeal

Continue posting.

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 09 Jan 2017, 23:17
by mhsmith0
Happymeal wrote:Objectively, if one believes I'm scum, you are in pretty good hands. There's likely only 2 - 3 scum in this game (3 max probably).

I probably should save this for the AAR, but now that I look back on it, it's pretty funny the whole slip thing. This isn't going to save me so don't interpret this as a last minute way to save my ass, but, funnily enough, I did look at my PM prior to making that post and there was actually no number to begin with. The whole "I didn't check my PM" thing was just a panicked response even though I had a fully believable excuse ready for me in just not looking at my role PM well enough.

Also, I want to make it clear that this is no one's fault but my own for the loss of the team I'm on. Obviously, if I'm town, you guys still have a good chance of winning and if I'm mafia, well, then you need to play very well probably. Good luck folks!


lolcatting with words I see.

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 09 Jan 2017, 23:18
by Telleo
mhsmith0 wrote:
Telleo wrote:...

*Sigh*

I thought you'd already realized the vig plan doesn't have any benefits.

None.

If you haven't, then please respond to my earlier posts in which I talk about the vig plan having no benefits.

None.


benefits of the vig plan compared to your plan in the case where we mislynch

1) In your plan, scum know exactly what actions they can take to result in the death of whoever they want to kill (and with two living scum, it becomes more possible for them to mess with the N1 outcomes data).


Negated by the likelihood of catching the scum, should they attempt to go off plan.

In the vig plan, any shot that scum make would be inherently risky.


You and I have different definitions of "risky."

If scum fire randomly during vig kill, maybe the kill someone, maybe they don't. In NO world, does that pose ANY risk to them. If they fire off-plan in MY plan, there are demonstrable (and in fact demonstrated) ways that we can catch them. If I were scum, I'd MUCH rather be shooting blindly in the vig plan.

2) It's town controlled kill power, and obviously it's possible that such power would in fact kill scum.


Yeah. Possible. Also possible that we get four town deaths, as the vig kills someone, we kill the vig, and the scum both get kills. Why does that outweigh a world in which the scum potentially have no ability to kill, because they can't fire off-plan?

Those are tangible benefits that your plan lacks, so if you dismiss it by saying there is zero benefit, then you're not really engaging with the substance of my point.

I've demonstrated how, in your plan, IF we lynch scum today, we can basically lock the game. I'm not yet convinced that your plan is superior in the event that we fail to lynch scum today.

If you want to demonstrate how your plan is optimal even given a mislynch, please demonstrate how, given your plan, scum cannot shoot one person and use the other to mess with our night data sufficiently to avoid detection.


That's not a possible thing to prove. You're asking me to prove non-existence - it's the same thing as asking me to prove that there are no two identical snowflakes in the universe. I'd have to look at every single flake individually to prove it. In game, that would require me to go through literally every permutation of scum teams and randomly assigned numbers and kill targets. I don't have that kind of time, and neither do you. So I'll counteroffer - prove to me that in even ONE scenario, the scum team gets off a kill and gets away with it (over more than one day). Find me ONE matching pair of snowflakes.

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 09 Jan 2017, 23:18
by shadowface
Telleo wrote:SF, literally out whole engagement has been about you not scumhunting and not trying to make your reads clear to the thread. Why do you think Sjg is blue-voting you? Is it because you didn't put a name in blue? Or is it because you're refusing to do any work in thread towards actually catching scum, and your lack of blue vote is a symptom of that?

No it's not.

I'm not blue voting because blue votes are only relevant if Happymeal is town.

If Happymeal is town, we all have to look at the game very differently.

I'm not going to do that when he's so obviously scum.

That's what blue voting is for. That's the only time it is relevant. It has nothing to do with finding scum, it has to do with finding scum in the context of HM being town.

If he's town, I have a much better way to choose our lynch target. We can just ask him as a cleared townie who we should kill.

Therefore blue voting is a waste of time.

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 09 Jan 2017, 23:19
by Happymeal
Happymeal wrote:Objectively, if one believes I'm scum, you are in pretty good hands. There's likely only 2 - 3 scum in this game (3 max probably).

I probably should save this for the AAR, but now that I look back on it, it's pretty funny the whole slip thing. This isn't going to save me so don't interpret this as a last minute way to save my ass, but, funnily enough, I did look at my PM prior to making that post and there was actually no number to begin with. The whole "I didn't check my PM" thing was just a panicked response even though I had a fully believable excuse ready for me in just not looking at my role PM well enough.

Also, I want to make it clear that this is no one's fault but my own for the loss of the team I'm on. Obviously, if I'm town, you guys still have a good chance of winning and if I'm mafia, well, then you need to play very well probably. Good luck folks!


This post was made given that I'm probably not gonna have time after the game concludes to fully respond to people within the AAR (due to classes starting and etc. There are a few other time consuming responsibilities that I need to take care of in the next week).

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 09 Jan 2017, 23:20
by mhsmith0
Keirador wrote:
Telleo wrote:There WAS no definitive conclusion with the numbers you gave us. We concluded that the numbers were falsified. Another night's results may well have told us how and where.

Sure. . . but that was the only attempt made without already having the initial rating. And shouldn't it be concerning that if you're given falsified numbers, the whole data set is unusable? What if, and this is like way out there, but what if the scum lie about their numbers? If the objection is to the initial data set, generate a proper one, with somewhere between 0 - 2 players lying about their reported values, and see if mhsmith can solve it to your satisfaction.

What I'm seeing right now is a plurality of the town who seems pretty uninterested in the minutiae of how this plan would work in action, and two strong defenders who are unwilling to put in the "busywork" of demonstrating how we would get to actionable information using only the kind of inputs we'll actually be given. My cup, therefore, does not floweth over with confidence.


The point in the case of HM flipping scum and us following the plan (where there are no night deaths) is

1) We can tell if there's a mathematical solution where no one lied or cheated
2) If there is NOT such a solution, we would know that no one lied or cheated, and then potentially be able to solve mechanically for where such a lie might have taken place

If #1 is the case, then that's a benefit in and of itself. If #2 is the case, I fail to see why I should do scum's work for them and point out the specifics of where they could get tripped up.

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 09 Jan 2017, 23:20
by mhsmith0
2) If there is NOT such a solution, we would know that no one someone lied or cheated, and then potentially be able to solve mechanically for where such a lie might have taken place

EBWOP

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

PostPosted: 09 Jan 2017, 23:21
by Keirador
Happymeal wrote:Objectively, if one believes I'm scum, you are in pretty good hands. There's likely only 2 - 3 scum in this game (3 max probably).

*twitches*