Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Game Over - Mafia Victory!

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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby sjg11 » 09 Jan 2017, 23:22

mhsmith0 wrote:
sjg11 wrote:...
Smith: You keep asserting that the Mafia trying to kill someone under your plan is inherently risky and I don't think that's the case. Even if someone notices their numbers are odd, it's impossible to actually figure out who's responsible for that oddity as it could be anyone targeting the target who is lying. I'm not seeing how it narrows down the field from the night results at all in this instance.

That's not my point. My point was that in my plan, the mafia trying to kill someone would not be guaranteed success, not that such an attempt would necessarily be caught.

Yeah but it still COULD succeed. Which means your plan is no safer than Telleo's plan but gives us less information to work with.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby sjg11 » 09 Jan 2017, 23:23

Keirador wrote:
mhsmith0 wrote:
Telleo wrote:...
But that's not how questions work. If I'm asking you to explain your thought process, you don't get to go "Explain my thought process to me because I want to know how you think." I'm asking because I don't understand. I'm asking because I want you to explain yourself. Neither of us gets anywhere if I have to just guess at what you're thinking.


Turning the question around and asking you to engage with it is an attempt to get you to engage critically with it. You say you were interested in my thought process, but I was interested in yours. That is an entirely valid thing to ask for, even if you don't like it.

I'm with Telleo on this one. The whole issue is that the process around your read is very opaque to non-mhsmith players. When someone asks for clarification, responding with "well what do you think my process might have been?" definitely comes off as scum who doesn't have a great answer to the question. "Turning a question around" is most assuredly a form of declining to answer.

^This.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 09 Jan 2017, 23:24

Happymeal wrote:...

This post was made given that I'm probably not gonna have time after the game concludes to fully respond to people within the AAR (due to classes starting and etc. There are a few other time consuming responsibilities that I need to take care of in the next week).


Could you just convince your buddy to surrender now instead of wasting everyone's time? I guess there's some pride in making it as far as you can go, but a loss is a loss regardless.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 09 Jan 2017, 23:24

Keirador wrote:
Telleo wrote:I mean, most of the town seems to think I'm chasing my own tail here. Is this really just completely normal to everyone?

I think this is a waste of time that has been exacerbated by Crunkus being vague, I guess on principle, about directly addressing your question in lieu of demonstrating overall ill regard for the question itself. If I were in Crunkus' shoes and had been asked a similar question about vote timing, I might say something like the following:

"First, there is a significant difference between "I believe I have caught HM in a lie, have you guys looked at this?" and a player coming in and saying "I was the GM in that game and HM is absolutely lying." Moreover, even if such a stark contrast did not exist, I was obviously in the process of developing a case, with many days left in the Day (as it were), and the specific timing of when the name goes up in red doesn't really matter that much compared to the development of the argument, at least not to me. I don't think you imbue red votes with special significance beyond their function, either, so I don't really get why you seem so seriously concerned with the exact timing of a vote that was obviously coming."

PPE: Looks like this issue got jumped on.


See, if Crunkus has said that, this could have been a productive conversation. I still think it's missing the core of my question. I understand that Sjg's confirmation makes his point stronger, and so he votes. I DON'T understand why he doesn't think his case is strong enough to warrant a vote prior to that.

I think we're weighing the difference Sjg made differently. I see it providing a bit more security. I don't see it providing a big enough difference that a Crunkus who believes he's already caught HM now feels confident in a vote. Maybe I'm overstating Crunkus's confidence in his first catch of HM?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Keirador » 09 Jan 2017, 23:25

Happymeal wrote:Objectively, if one believes I'm scum, you are in pretty good hands. There's likely only 2 - 3 scum in this game (3 max probably).
[/quote]

Honestly, if this isn't scum attempting to fake a derpclear, and Happymeal truly cannot be arsed to read four pages of rules, I would hesitate before allowing him to join a game I run. Not a bad play for a scum with few good options, but if this is sincere it's awfully disrespectful to everyone involved.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby sjg11 » 09 Jan 2017, 23:28

shadowfriend1 wrote:
sjg11 wrote:Shadowfriend, you putting your name down on the chart suggests that you are ok with the blue-vote plan to the extent that you'd prefer it to plan Telleo.

Okay, in case it wasn't clear the first 10 times I said it.
I don't think we should be blue-voting today to choose our vig target unless we have a solid pick that makes sense in a world in which HM is scum. I never have, and I never will.
Now stop trying to put me on your list.

Shadowfriend, I'm not the one who put you on my list, YOU'RE the one who put yourself on my list as being for the blue voting vigilante plan as opposed to Telleo's plan if happymeal flips town. And great, then why are you not telling us we should be blue-voting a vig shot if happymeal's Mafia when there's been an assumption from the beginning that we follow Telleo's plan if happymeal flips red?
sjg11 wrote:And your response when I ask for a blue vote is "I'll do what happymeal tells me to do". I mean, if we're going to have the vigging plan you either need to blue vote so that that can pass or you need to start working to actually persuade other people to go for the happymeal plan. You're doing neither currently.

That's because sir Happymeal hasn't shown up yet, likely because he clearly couldn't care less about what happens if he flips town. Because he won't. Don't you see, the less HM cares about this, the less relevant it becomes that we plan for this contingency at all.
Even then, as I've said, I'd be fine with randomly targetting tonight if there are two scum left.

You'd prefer randomly targeting someone tonight as opposed to a blue-voting vig plan or Telleo's plan if there are two Mafia left at the end of today?
sjg11 wrote:I also factor in a read on Telleo where the logic is odd and doesn't really seem to have much internal consistency and it puts me in a position where I have issues with you.

Cool. Thanks for, you know, laying out your allegations in a way that I can respond to.

Except for the fact I DID that when I initially questioned you on the topic.

With regards to your Jordan read, couldn't that stuff be scum Jordan preparing for if happymeal's town and trying to get town credit for dissenting the runaway townie lynch? I mean, if happymeal's town then is that a valid narrative for Jordan's actions as Mafia?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby sjg11 » 09 Jan 2017, 23:30

Happymeal wrote:Objectively, if one believes I'm scum, you are in pretty good hands. There's likely only 2 - 3 scum in this game (3 max probably).

I probably should save this for the AAR, but now that I look back on it, it's pretty funny the whole slip thing. This isn't going to save me so don't interpret this as a last minute way to save my ass, but, funnily enough, I did look at my PM prior to making that post and there was actually no number to begin with. The whole "I didn't check my PM" thing was just a panicked response even though I had a fully believable excuse ready for me in just not looking at my role PM well enough.

Also, I want to make it clear that this is no one's fault but my own for the loss of the team I'm on. Obviously, if I'm town, you guys still have a good chance of winning and if I'm mafia, well, then you need to play very well probably. Good luck folks!

Go back to trolling, it was more entertaining.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 09 Jan 2017, 23:31

shadowfriend1 wrote:
Telleo wrote:I don't care if you think HM is scum. WHO ELSE do you think is scum? What scumhunting are you doing? Why do you think it's okay to just say "HM's scum, no more work to do today?"

All of my reads are in the context of the game I've observed, in which I think very strongly that HM is scum. You can't exactly separate the two.
But I can give you my top reads, if you like.

My 2nd place top scumread (to HM) right now is Jordan. A brief overview of my thoughts here:

This read, like I mentioned early, is heavily tied to his soft defense of HappyMeal. Therefore not applicable to your blue-voting plan. Anyways, he plays it exactly as I would expect him to if his buddy was going down early Day 1. Posts like this make it so he can still back of and not join the wagon on his buddy quite smoothly:
Okay. If we assume that Happymeal actually didn't check his role PM, what exactly about his story doesn't check out?

If there's a player who doesn't check his role PM before posting, it's Happymeal. And this game didn't have a night 0 or anything (time between receipt of my role PM and the thread starting was about half an hour) so it's not like Condude would have been monitoring who checked their PMs. So in this game even if in no other, it's theoretically possible. Also possibly Condude wouldn't have been checking anyway because we all confirmed within 12 hours so he knew we were all active? So it's possible he actually didn't check his role PM before his first post and then went to go check it after getting time critical info down in thread that couldn't possibly wait a minute or two tops.

I still think it's more likely he's lying scum. My vote is still on him. But that's all based on the one assumption about his role PM plus a bit about Fable 8. But a frictionless unanimous lynch isn't that helpful, especially if he does somehow flip town.

How likely do we think it is that he's telling the truth about his role PM? How likely is it that he's scum even if he is? (When you think about that keep in mind that Happymeal always picks up at least a couple of votes day 1).

Along similar lines, the fact that he wants to stay open to lynching other people is exactly how I would expect him to play this as scum.
By be careful I mean, don't end day or anything stupid. And we shouldn't close our eyes to other options like towns sometimes do when they think they have caught scum.

When I press him on it he backs off right away. It seems, once again, like he was trying to leave himself an out.

I find this kind of noncommittal play very similar to how he played in BMS as scum (link to game: viewtopic.php?f=314&t=54045). Tomorrow, when this case is more relevant, I'll be going through that game to find specific examples.


Ok. This is what I've been wanting from you for like 40 odd pages. Nice of you to finally start.

That said, it's not enough.

You've got one scumread on one player. It's not a strong one, it's just "this guy soft defends HM." I'm not disagreeing, I'm just wondering why you don't have anything stronger. Or, you know... anything else at all. You haven't seen anything from any of the other seven players in the past nearly 70 pages?

Also, and this just occurred to me:

Why are you not okay trying to think of reads of people who might be scum, should HM flip town, but you ARE okay backing a plan that requires HM to be town?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 09 Jan 2017, 23:31

mhsmith0 wrote:
sjg11 wrote:...
Smith: You keep asserting that the Mafia trying to kill someone under your plan is inherently risky and I don't think that's the case. Even if someone notices their numbers are odd, it's impossible to actually figure out who's responsible for that oddity as it could be anyone targeting the target who is lying. I'm not seeing how it narrows down the field from the night results at all in this instance.

That's not my point. My point was that in my plan, the mafia trying to kill someone would not be guaranteed success, not that such an attempt would necessarily be caught.


I don't think you're weighing this properly. I'd much rather have a certain town death that can be traced to a scum than a 50/50 shot of a town death that can't.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 09 Jan 2017, 23:33

So at this point I'm no longer particularly concerned with arguing the vig vs telleo plan difference in the town!HM scenario. Since we're at like 90% HM is scum, I'll just go ahead and say I'll follow the telleo plan regardless, and deal with fallout from a blue flip if somehow that actually happens.
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