Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Game Over - Mafia Victory!

Moderators: Zoomzip, Telleo, bkbkbk, condude1, sjg11

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby shadowface » 09 Jan 2017, 23:04

Telleo wrote:I don't care if you think HM is scum. WHO ELSE do you think is scum? What scumhunting are you doing? Why do you think it's okay to just say "HM's scum, no more work to do today?"

All of my reads are in the context of the game I've observed, in which I think very strongly that HM is scum. You can't exactly separate the two.
But I can give you my top reads, if you like.

My 2nd place top scumread (to HM) right now is Jordan. A brief overview of my thoughts here:

This read, like I mentioned early, is heavily tied to his soft defense of HappyMeal. Therefore not applicable to your blue-voting plan. Anyways, he plays it exactly as I would expect him to if his buddy was going down early Day 1. Posts like this make it so he can still back of and not join the wagon on his buddy quite smoothly:
Okay. If we assume that Happymeal actually didn't check his role PM, what exactly about his story doesn't check out?

If there's a player who doesn't check his role PM before posting, it's Happymeal. And this game didn't have a night 0 or anything (time between receipt of my role PM and the thread starting was about half an hour) so it's not like Condude would have been monitoring who checked their PMs. So in this game even if in no other, it's theoretically possible. Also possibly Condude wouldn't have been checking anyway because we all confirmed within 12 hours so he knew we were all active? So it's possible he actually didn't check his role PM before his first post and then went to go check it after getting time critical info down in thread that couldn't possibly wait a minute or two tops.

I still think it's more likely he's lying scum. My vote is still on him. But that's all based on the one assumption about his role PM plus a bit about Fable 8. But a frictionless unanimous lynch isn't that helpful, especially if he does somehow flip town.

How likely do we think it is that he's telling the truth about his role PM? How likely is it that he's scum even if he is? (When you think about that keep in mind that Happymeal always picks up at least a couple of votes day 1).

Along similar lines, the fact that he wants to stay open to lynching other people is exactly how I would expect him to play this as scum.
By be careful I mean, don't end day or anything stupid. And we shouldn't close our eyes to other options like towns sometimes do when they think they have caught scum.

When I press him on it he backs off right away. It seems, once again, like he was trying to leave himself an out.

I find this kind of noncommittal play very similar to how he played in BMS as scum (link to game: viewtopic.php?f=314&t=54045). Tomorrow, when this case is more relevant, I'll be going through that game to find specific examples.
The player formerly known as shadowfriend1
Proud bearer of the Angle of Unnecessary Overshoot
Previously cursed by the Talisman of Greater Scumminess :twisted:, now an innocent, reformed townsperson
User avatar
shadowface
 
Posts: 5524
Joined: 06 Feb 2013, 06:26
Location: Toronto
Class: Ambassador
Standard rating: (892)
All-game rating: (892)
Timezone: GMT-5

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby shadowface » 09 Jan 2017, 23:04

shadowfriend1 wrote:I find this kind of noncommittal play very similar to how he played in BMS as scum (link to game: viewtopic.php?f=314&t=54045). Tomorrow, when this case is more relevant, I'll be going through that game to find specific examples.

EPWOP: BMS 2, that is.
The player formerly known as shadowfriend1
Proud bearer of the Angle of Unnecessary Overshoot
Previously cursed by the Talisman of Greater Scumminess :twisted:, now an innocent, reformed townsperson
User avatar
shadowface
 
Posts: 5524
Joined: 06 Feb 2013, 06:26
Location: Toronto
Class: Ambassador
Standard rating: (892)
All-game rating: (892)
Timezone: GMT-5

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 09 Jan 2017, 23:05

sjg11 wrote:...
Smith: You keep asserting that the Mafia trying to kill someone under your plan is inherently risky and I don't think that's the case. Even if someone notices their numbers are odd, it's impossible to actually figure out who's responsible for that oddity as it could be anyone targeting the target who is lying. I'm not seeing how it narrows down the field from the night results at all in this instance.

That's not my point. My point was that in my plan, the mafia trying to kill someone would not be guaranteed success, not that such an attempt would necessarily be caught.
Proud holder of the Superior Tophat of Solving, an item entrusted with the forum's most prominent smartass
User avatar
mhsmith0
 
Posts: 3616
Joined: 11 Dec 2015, 06:55
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: (1269)
All-game rating: (1439)
Timezone: GMT-7

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 09 Jan 2017, 23:05

sjg11 wrote:I'm also considering my recollection of a similar moment in Hot Potato (which I do need to re-visit) as some evidence that this is a Crunkus mentality. Give me a moment to go back to the demonstrable lie section. And thoughts on my blue vote for shadowfriend?


Love the vote. Probably gonna join it once I'm caught up. I really don't like SF's refusal to give us reads.
Harb wrote:Telleo is gender-bent Chaucer from A Knight's Tale

Moderator of the Mafia Subforum!
Proud Owner of a limited-edition Medal of Idiotic Valor.
"Russian Roulette is not the same without a gun." -Lady Gaga.
Third time's the charm.
User avatar
Telleo
 
Posts: 5473
Joined: 03 Jun 2013, 17:39
Class: Ambassador
Standard rating: (951)
All-game rating: (908)
Timezone: GMT

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 09 Jan 2017, 23:07

sjg11 wrote:
Crunkus wrote:
I think Happymeal is lying here in a demonstrable way.

I just went back and re-read the beginning of Fable 8. I think you all should do the same. It doesn't square with this at all, particularly when you consider the roles and the possibility he could be advocating the death of himself if he didn't read his role pm. Look at the details of those posts, Happymeal had read his role pm.

I just don't buy this at all.

Telleo, important words in this post being "I THINK" which is what makes my clarification important surely?


I suppose. I was more focused on the "in a demonstrable way" portion. Makes it seem like he's not too uncertain.
Harb wrote:Telleo is gender-bent Chaucer from A Knight's Tale

Moderator of the Mafia Subforum!
Proud Owner of a limited-edition Medal of Idiotic Valor.
"Russian Roulette is not the same without a gun." -Lady Gaga.
Third time's the charm.
User avatar
Telleo
 
Posts: 5473
Joined: 03 Jun 2013, 17:39
Class: Ambassador
Standard rating: (951)
All-game rating: (908)
Timezone: GMT

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Keirador » 09 Jan 2017, 23:08

mhsmith0 wrote:
Telleo wrote:...
But that's not how questions work. If I'm asking you to explain your thought process, you don't get to go "Explain my thought process to me because I want to know how you think." I'm asking because I don't understand. I'm asking because I want you to explain yourself. Neither of us gets anywhere if I have to just guess at what you're thinking.


Turning the question around and asking you to engage with it is an attempt to get you to engage critically with it. You say you were interested in my thought process, but I was interested in yours. That is an entirely valid thing to ask for, even if you don't like it.

I'm with Telleo on this one. The whole issue is that the process around your read is very opaque to non-mhsmith players. When someone asks for clarification, responding with "well what do you think my process might have been?" definitely comes off as scum who doesn't have a great answer to the question. "Turning a question around" is most assuredly a form of declining to answer.
Did you know there’s a faceless old woman who secretly lives in your home? It’s true. She’s there now. She’s always there, just out of your sight. Always just out of your sight.
User avatar
Keirador
 
Posts: 11217
Joined: 01 Dec 2008, 21:36
Location: Living secretly in the home of every single resident of Night Vale
Class: Ambassador
Standard rating: (1132)
All-game rating: (1133)
Timezone: GMT-5

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 09 Jan 2017, 23:08

Telleo wrote:
Keirador wrote:
mhsmith0 wrote:Is Telleo's scum game sufficiently good to get that extreme level of respect? Is she merely a competent scum player? Should we be fearing her scum game MORE than, say, sjg's scum game? Or Keirador's?

Yes. See Spy vs. Spy.


OH YEAH.

Man that was a good game.


Cool. If happymeal flips blue, maybe I'll read that N1 or D2 and see if something jumps out at me. If happymeal flips red, I don't think telleo has condemning associatives (including the fact that someone as concerned with the game mechanics as she's been would probably not have failed to educate her partner on the basics of what kind of knowledge town players would have in the setup).
Proud holder of the Superior Tophat of Solving, an item entrusted with the forum's most prominent smartass
User avatar
mhsmith0
 
Posts: 3616
Joined: 11 Dec 2015, 06:55
Location: Phoenix, AZ
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: (1269)
All-game rating: (1439)
Timezone: GMT-7

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 09 Jan 2017, 23:10

mhsmith0 wrote:
Telleo wrote:...
But that's not how questions work. If I'm asking you to explain your thought process, you don't get to go "Explain my thought process to me because I want to know how you think." I'm asking because I don't understand. I'm asking because I want you to explain yourself. Neither of us gets anywhere if I have to just guess at what you're thinking.


Turning the question around and asking you to engage with it is an attempt to get you to engage critically with it. You say you were interested in my thought process, but I was interested in yours. That is an entirely valid thing to ask for, even if you don't like it.

Also, what does that have to do with the "awesome scum trap" bit you tossed out? That's still something that I don't think I'd ever represented.

...no. I asked you a question. You responded by demanding that I answer my own question. That's not fair engagement. And that's not a fair representation of what I'm doing.


It actually is fair engagement. And it's certainly true that you declined to answer. The only way it would be unfair engagement is if somehow I was incapable of answering the question, and was somehow deflecting it back on you because I couldn't answer, which I'm pretty sure I've demonstrated isn't the case.


If this were fair engagement, no one would ever get anything answered. I'd ask you what you were thinking, you'd ask me what I thought you were thinking, I'd ask you what you thought I thought you were thinking, and so on ad nauseam.

If you had answered my question, THEN it would have become reasonable to try to delve into my thinking. But you don't get to skip explaining yourself to demand that I do your work for you.
Harb wrote:Telleo is gender-bent Chaucer from A Knight's Tale

Moderator of the Mafia Subforum!
Proud Owner of a limited-edition Medal of Idiotic Valor.
"Russian Roulette is not the same without a gun." -Lady Gaga.
Third time's the charm.
User avatar
Telleo
 
Posts: 5473
Joined: 03 Jun 2013, 17:39
Class: Ambassador
Standard rating: (951)
All-game rating: (908)
Timezone: GMT

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby shadowface » 09 Jan 2017, 23:11

sjg11 wrote:Shadowfriend, you putting your name down on the chart suggests that you are ok with the blue-vote plan to the extent that you'd prefer it to plan Telleo.

Okay, in case it wasn't clear the first 10 times I said it.
I don't think we should be blue-voting today to choose our vig target unless we have a solid pick that makes sense in a world in which HM is scum. I never have, and I never will.
Now stop trying to put me on your list.

sjg11 wrote:And your response when I ask for a blue vote is "I'll do what happymeal tells me to do". I mean, if we're going to have the vigging plan you either need to blue vote so that that can pass or you need to start working to actually persuade other people to go for the happymeal plan. You're doing neither currently.

That's because sir Happymeal hasn't shown up yet, likely because he clearly couldn't care less about what happens if he flips town. Because he won't. Don't you see, the less HM cares about this, the less relevant it becomes that we plan for this contingency at all.
Even then, as I've said, I'd be fine with randomly targetting tonight if there are two scum left.
sjg11 wrote:I also factor in a read on Telleo where the logic is odd and doesn't really seem to have much internal consistency and it puts me in a position where I have issues with you.

Cool. Thanks for, you know, laying out your allegations in a way that I can respond to.
The player formerly known as shadowfriend1
Proud bearer of the Angle of Unnecessary Overshoot
Previously cursed by the Talisman of Greater Scumminess :twisted:, now an innocent, reformed townsperson
User avatar
shadowface
 
Posts: 5524
Joined: 06 Feb 2013, 06:26
Location: Toronto
Class: Ambassador
Standard rating: (892)
All-game rating: (892)
Timezone: GMT-5

Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Keirador » 09 Jan 2017, 23:14

Telleo wrote:There WAS no definitive conclusion with the numbers you gave us. We concluded that the numbers were falsified. Another night's results may well have told us how and where.

Sure. . . but that was the only attempt made without already having the initial rating. And shouldn't it be concerning that if you're given falsified numbers, the whole data set is unusable? What if, and this is like way out there, but what if the scum lie about their numbers? If the objection is to the initial data set, generate a proper one, with somewhere between 0 - 2 players lying about their reported values, and see if mhsmith can solve it to your satisfaction.

What I'm seeing right now is a plurality of the town who seems pretty uninterested in the minutiae of how this plan would work in action, and two strong defenders who are unwilling to put in the "busywork" of demonstrating how we would get to actionable information using only the kind of inputs we'll actually be given. My cup, therefore, does not floweth over with confidence.
Did you know there’s a faceless old woman who secretly lives in your home? It’s true. She’s there now. She’s always there, just out of your sight. Always just out of your sight.
User avatar
Keirador
 
Posts: 11217
Joined: 01 Dec 2008, 21:36
Location: Living secretly in the home of every single resident of Night Vale
Class: Ambassador
Standard rating: (1132)
All-game rating: (1133)
Timezone: GMT-5

PreviousNext

Return to Game Threads

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 16 guests