Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Game Over - Mafia Victory!

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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 09 Jan 2017, 22:53

Telleo wrote:...

*Sigh*

I thought you'd already realized the vig plan doesn't have any benefits.

None.

If you haven't, then please respond to my earlier posts in which I talk about the vig plan having no benefits.

None.


benefits of the vig plan compared to your plan in the case where we mislynch

1) In your plan, scum know exactly what actions they can take to result in the death of whoever they want to kill (and with two living scum, it becomes more possible for them to mess with the N1 outcomes data). In the vig plan, any shot that scum make would be inherently risky.

2) It's town controlled kill power, and obviously it's possible that such power would in fact kill scum.

Those are tangible benefits that your plan lacks, so if you dismiss it by saying there is zero benefit, then you're not really engaging with the substance of my point.

I've demonstrated how, in your plan, IF we lynch scum today, we can basically lock the game. I'm not yet convinced that your plan is superior in the event that we fail to lynch scum today.

If you want to demonstrate how your plan is optimal even given a mislynch, please demonstrate how, given your plan, scum cannot shoot one person and use the other to mess with our night data sufficiently to avoid detection.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 09 Jan 2017, 22:54

Telleo wrote:
mhsmith0 wrote:...

Essentially. I don't think that ANYONE here is good enough as scum to run the table of six mislynches in a row (and honestly, even getting like three would be impressive). So if happymeal flips scum this game is OVER.


I am. Come at me.

But seriously, there's a difference between "We've got good odds" and "this game is mechanically locked."


crunkus is a great scum player, and I don't think he could run that table. Harb is a great scum player, and I don't think he could run that table. So yeah, I'll call it like 95%+ odds, which is close enough for me to justify using loaded language like I have been.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Crunkus_old » 09 Jan 2017, 22:56

mhsmith0 wrote:@crunkus:

I bet I did explain what I meant by "mechanically locked", including the limitations of it.

I bet I did explain that if happymeal flips scum, if we follow the telleo plan, that scum cheating on the plan would result in multiple town clears, essentially making it a mechanically locked game (since scum can only kill one at a time, but town can lynch and, if they get an attractive target, potentially vig on N2/N3/etc)

I also bet I did explain that if scum then chooses NOT to kill, we're essentially in an 8/1 nightless game, which is so heavily town-sided that it may as well be mechanically locked.

All of these are things that I said, and was pretty clear about. You've apparently elected not to read what I've said very closely, and have elected to get frustrated that I am not meeting your standards for transparency. That you are doing so while displaying an occassional lack of thread awareness (the rules misunderstanding was an obvious example, the discussion about "mechanically locked" is another one, and I'm pretty sure I could find more examples if I cared to look though frankly I don't), while not using your frustration over my failing to meet your standards as a weapon to pursue a scum agenda, or be defensive about how people are reading you (my recollection of fruit salad was that you only actually got emotional at people not meeting your standards in the context of them pushing or suspecting you, with your posts to IAWY on day 1 being a decent example from skimming your early ISO there), all reads to me as solid town!crunkus (@telleo: there's a bit more substantiation of my crunkus meta read by the way).

As far as the specifics of my SF read go, I feel like I was sufficiently transparent that the meaning could have been picked up early on in the discussion, but obviously that wasn't the case. Certainly I have laid it out in enough detail since that anyone can follow and evalaute it.


I get it you've been transparent, I'm wrong. Thanks.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby sjg11 » 09 Jan 2017, 22:57

Shadowfriend, you putting your name down on the chart suggests that you are ok with the blue-vote plan to the extent that you'd prefer it to plan Telleo.

Yet you're not willing to blue vote, or to really offer any insight about whether you have a scumread outside of happymeal despite being asked a couple of times now. You say you have issues with Jordan, could you flesh those issues out for me?

And your response when I ask for a blue vote is "I'll do what happymeal tells me to do". I mean, if we're going to have the vigging plan you either need to blue vote so that that can pass or you need to start working to actually persuade other people to go for the happymeal plan. You're doing neither currently.

I also factor in a read on Telleo where the logic is odd and doesn't really seem to have much internal consistency and it puts me in a position where I have issues with you.

Smith: You keep asserting that the Mafia trying to kill someone under your plan is inherently risky and I don't think that's the case. Even if someone notices their numbers are odd, it's impossible to actually figure out who's responsible for that oddity as it could be anyone targeting the target who is lying. I'm not seeing how it narrows down the field from the night results at all in this instance.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Keirador » 09 Jan 2017, 22:57

Telleo wrote:I mean, most of the town seems to think I'm chasing my own tail here. Is this really just completely normal to everyone?

I think this is a waste of time that has been exacerbated by Crunkus being vague, I guess on principle, about directly addressing your question in lieu of demonstrating overall ill regard for the question itself. If I were in Crunkus' shoes and had been asked a similar question about vote timing, I might say something like the following:

"First, there is a significant difference between "I believe I have caught HM in a lie, have you guys looked at this?" and a player coming in and saying "I was the GM in that game and HM is absolutely lying." Moreover, even if such a stark contrast did not exist, I was obviously in the process of developing a case, with many days left in the Day (as it were), and the specific timing of when the name goes up in red doesn't really matter that much compared to the development of the argument, at least not to me. I don't think you imbue red votes with special significance beyond their function, either, so I don't really get why you seem so seriously concerned with the exact timing of a vote that was obviously coming."

PPE: Looks like this issue got jumped on.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 09 Jan 2017, 22:58

mhsmith0 wrote:
shadowfriend1 wrote:Is Telleo not renowned as an exceptional scum player? If anyone would fake it, it would be her.


Well that begs the question: is she in fact renowned as an exceptional scum player? Harb is certainly renowned around here as an exceptional scum player. And crunkus is debatably the best scum player on our player list (that he got an overall competent town to somehow mislynch soah, who is probably the best player I've ever played with [I've played with him twice, both times he was town, and was incredibly impressed both times], was pretty much a monument to the quality of his scum game).

Is Telleo's scum game sufficiently good to get that extreme level of respect? Is she merely a competent scum player? Should we be fearing her scum game MORE than, say, sjg's scum game? Or Keirador's?


I like to think I'm at least above average as scum. Better scum than town, although I think my town game's been picking up of late. Read Fable... 5? I think? Where Zoomzip, Dodgy, and I are scum. One of my better efforts. Condude's Dethy Mafia is one of my favorite games I've been as scum, also a good (and short!) read.

I dislike comparing myself to other players, however, so I won't. Suffice it to say, you should be concerned by my scum capabilities.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 09 Jan 2017, 23:00

Keirador wrote:
mhsmith0 wrote:
Keirador wrote:Telleo/Smith: You realize that using the same value report, you guys arrived at different ratings numbers for the players, right? I probably screwed up generating the value report, but you guys might want to try a couple iterations of that where you get the same numbers if you want to push this plan through.

busywork. The point is that it can be done.

Oh no, my hair's caught fire.

It doesn't concern you at all that the person whose plan you are following and you yourself were unable to reach the definitive conclusions you both believe will be the benefit of this plan? So far, it is not obvious that it "can be done" because it has not been done. Following this plan does require the careful and diligent performance of busywork. I am not up to the task because I'm still not that clear on how definitive, unambiguous values are derived here. You're claiming they can be, so it's kinda on you.


There WAS no definitive conclusion with the numbers you gave us. We concluded that the numbers were falsified. Another night's results may well have told us how and where.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 09 Jan 2017, 23:02

Keirador wrote:
mhsmith0 wrote:
Keirador wrote:Telleo/Smith: You realize that using the same value report, you guys arrived at different ratings numbers for the players, right? I probably screwed up generating the value report, but you guys might want to try a couple iterations of that where you get the same numbers if you want to push this plan through.

busywork. The point is that it can be done.

Oh no, my hair's caught fire.

It doesn't concern you at all that the person whose plan you are following and you yourself were unable to reach the definitive conclusions you both believe will be the benefit of this plan? So far, it is not obvious that it "can be done" because it has not been done. Following this plan does require the careful and diligent performance of busywork. I am not up to the task because I'm still not that clear on how definitive, unambiguous values are derived here. You're claiming they can be, so it's kinda on you.


Oh please. I did it and solved for the fact that you made a math bust. The path exists, and therefore means that, given 1 living scum and a night kill on N1, there MUST therefore be multiple hard town clears.

In the event that scum don't kill N1 in that case, the lack of a night kill is itself a major benefit, and then you can solve for a hard result of what everyone's numbers are or MAYBE like 2 different possibilities (so K would be like a 2 or 3, me a 1 or 2, crunkus a 3 or 4, etc), or you can verify that there is no solution and therefore scum cheated, and then you can mechanically look at that outcome and try to narrow down where scum might have cheated.

Either way it's a major town benefit, and this is obviously the case. Replacating another make believe scenario and solving again for what the resulting power ratings of players are is a waste of time. What matters is that it can be done, and that the method has been demonstrated.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 09 Jan 2017, 23:03

shadowfriend1 wrote:
sjg11 wrote:As to your last post SF: You state that you are pro-blue voting here if happymeal is town. That sort of involves, y'know, blue voting today. So saying "I'm for blue-voting vig kill if happymeal comes up town but I can't bluevote because I'm not scumhunting today for the contingency of if happymeal's town" makes no sense at this point.

shadowfriend


Come on, sjg, this isn't fair at all. Let's go back to the start and track the progression here:

  • For a long time I was floating this idea:
    shadowfriend1 wrote:Why don't we get Happymeal to choose our target instead of blue voting? In the scenario in which we do the vig dogpile, he's confirmed town, so he's the best person to choose our target.

  • Your reply is literally, the time for yakking about mechanics is over. Not for me, right? I disagree with the inherent strategy behind both of the plans you've proposed.
    sjg wrote:Shadowfriend, Vig plan or Telleo's plan if happymeal flips town? The time for yakking about mechanics is over, it's time to actually come to a consensus and make a decision.

  • I point out that I actually don't agree with either of the plans you've proposed, and would rather the vig plan but with Happymeal choosing the target. I'm very transparent about this.
    shadowfriend1 wrote:Calm down, sjg, we have all day to discuss this.
    I'd rather the vig plan, but if we don't democratically come to a vig target we feel confident about I would rather Happymeal make the decision. If we're basically choosing the vig target out of a hat, I would rather go with random pushing and pulling of random targets.

  • I add myself to the list under supporting a vig kill, because I do, and you were making it sound like there's no support for that idea. I don't know if you meant to do this, but that was the impression I got. But it's not like there was any ambiguity as to how I want the vig kill to happen, based on my previous posts on the topic. Perhaps I should have said this explicitly, for about the 10th time, in this post.
    shadowfriend1 wrote:If happymeal is TOWN
    People for Telleo's plan: Telleo, sjg11, dodgy
    People for blue-vote vig: smith, shadowfriend

  • You respond to this by pointing out that I haven't blue voted. No, I haven't, because that's not how I want to do the vig kill.
    sjg11 wrote:Ok, anyone you feel like blue-voting currently shadowfriend? I don't feel like I have any insight into your thought process currently and I'd like to gain that insight.

  • I reply that it's not reasonable for me to structure a paradigm in which Happymeal is town when I'm so sure it's scum. That's what blue voting, for me, would demand: I'd have to have a concept of the entire game, from that perspective. Currently if I had to kill someone else it would be Jordan, but that read is so heavily founded in Happymeal being scum that it doesn't work here.
    It's a silly exercise to re read the entire game under an assumption I strongly believe to be false when we have a cleared townie under this same assumption who we should definitely listen to. Thus:
    shadowfriend1 wrote:Sjg, if you want my thought process, I think Happymeal is lying scum. So trying to work in a world where he isn't scum isn't remotely natural for me.
    Like I said earlier, I want Happymeal to tell us who we should vig kill tonight. He's cleared as town in this instance, right? So not only can we trust him, but he's really the only on who could operate under the assumption that he is town and perform a reasonable analysis of the game under that assumption.
    Happymeal: who is your top scumread right now?
    If he's town, he should be very eager to help his team in this way. It's the one thing he could do right now to help the town.
    The fact that he doesn't seem to care to confirms my suspicions even more, and makes this whole discussion sort of moot.

  • You assume I'm pro-blue voting, which I'm just not. I'm pro vig kill, but you've tried so hard to slot me into a category that doesn't fit that you think this is a contradiction. The problem is that you are being closeminded to what I'm actually saying, trying to organize everyone onto a list.
    sjg11 wrote:As to your last post SF: You state that you are pro-blue voting here if happymeal is town. That sort of involves, y'know, blue voting today. So saying "I'm for blue-voting vig kill if happymeal comes up town but I can't bluevote because I'm not scumhunting today for the contingency of if happymeal's town" makes no sense at this point.

    shadowfriend



SF, literally out whole engagement has been about you not scumhunting and not trying to make your reads clear to the thread. Why do you think Sjg is blue-voting you? Is it because you didn't put a name in blue? Or is it because you're refusing to do any work in thread towards actually catching scum, and your lack of blue vote is a symptom of that?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Telleo » 09 Jan 2017, 23:03

Keirador wrote:
mhsmith0 wrote:Is Telleo's scum game sufficiently good to get that extreme level of respect? Is she merely a competent scum player? Should we be fearing her scum game MORE than, say, sjg's scum game? Or Keirador's?

Yes. See Spy vs. Spy.


OH YEAH.

Man that was a good game.
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