Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Game Over - Mafia Victory!

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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Night 2

Postby Telleo » 17 Jan 2017, 15:07

Also, Welcome Justy! Thank you for subbing in. Are you caught up/mostly caught up?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Night 2

Postby justy » 17 Jan 2017, 17:29

Hello, it's nice to be playing again!

@Telleo, I'm caught up, although reading as spectator, my feel for the thread is a bit shabby.

I pushed Sjg and have now 3 pull points.

I'm scum-reading Jordan because his play style is similar to his scum play in BMS2 and Fable 8. However, his EoD2 interaction with mhsmith felt different and I have to look into it.

Sjg thinking about there being 2 of each power could be town indicative, as scum would know that's not the case (assuming we can now confirm D2 power values?). However, to honor Zip's request, I'm going to look into Sjg more closely today.

I agree those town-reading Telleo. My reasons aren't as advanced, though. I think she deserves town cred for the plan, as it would have made scum life really difficult even if Happy wouldn't have been caught D1.

I town read Crunk. I think his case against Smit was good. I especially liked the bit about Happy's interaction with Smith and the bit (also made by others) about smith not being open and engaging with other players' concerns.

Keir I'm suspicious of. This might not make right to what he did D2, but my current feeling is that Keir was mostly concerned with D2 being all about Smith, without really doing much about it himself.

Shadowfriend I don't have a read on. My recollection of the thread is that SF has mostly focused on defending herself against Telleo and Smith against everyone. She's on my list of players (with Sjg, Jordan and Keir) I hope to into more closely today.

In general, I believe final scum wished to keep Smith alive D2 as that would have kept game in half paralyzed state longer and left good mislynch candidate later. So I'm looking for votes that felt forced and those players who didn't want to vote Smith but also didn't try to solve the situation. Latter is point against scum Keir idea, because Keir tried to get Smith open up his play style.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Night 2

Postby justy » 17 Jan 2017, 17:30

Oh, and I don't have a read on Dodgy either.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Night 2

Postby Crunkus_old » 17 Jan 2017, 18:27

sf:

Do you sincerely believe Telleo believes you and your posts to be evil and wrong?

If so, why?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Night 2

Postby Crunkus_old » 17 Jan 2017, 18:29

sf:

If I am lynched today, and I show up town, and I put forward you as the better lynch, is it logical that I'm any more correct than if I wasn't dead and confirmed town?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Night 2

Postby Crunkus_old » 17 Jan 2017, 19:36

justy wrote:Hello, it's nice to be playing again!

@Telleo, I'm caught up, although reading as spectator, my feel for the thread is a bit shabby.

I pushed Sjg and have now 3 pull points.

I'm scum-reading Jordan because his play style is similar to his scum play in BMS2 and Fable 8. However, his EoD2 interaction with mhsmith felt different and I have to look into it.


Justy:

It is in my experience a trivial thing to identify someone's performance as consistent with previous scum performances. Part of being scum is in part, trying to play like you would as town. To the extent anyone succeeds, that's a lot of play that can be mined as "consistent with scum" that really isn't indicative of anything.

What's more interesting to me is when you identify play behaviours that are inconsistent in your experience with that person's play as town.

Would you agree with this logically, and do you have any behaviours you have noticed about Jordan that are inconsistent in your experience with his play as town?

Having said that, what behaviours were you specifically concerned about? I couldn't really relate from what you posted on the subject as you didn't get very specific.

justy wrote:I town read Crunk. I think his case against Smit was good. I especially liked the bit about Happy's interaction with Smith and the bit (also made by others) about smith not being open and engaging with other players' concerns.


Why was it good? It was wrong. How do you account for that?

justy wrote:Keir I'm suspicious of. This might not make right to what he did D2, but my current feeling is that Keir was mostly concerned with D2 being all about Smith, without really doing much about it himself.


What do you mean when you say that your current feeling is that Keir was "mostly concerned with D2 being all about smith"?

justy wrote:In general, I believe final scum wished to keep Smith alive D2 as that would have kept game in half paralyzed state longer and left good mislynch candidate later. So I'm looking for votes that felt forced and those players who didn't want to vote Smith but also didn't try to solve the situation. Latter is point against scum Keir idea, because Keir tried to get Smith open up his play style.


Do you sincerely feel the last remaining scum, having just lost Happymeal in that particular way, sincerely hoped to affect a change in the inertia of yesterday to leave the game paralyzed? If so, how strongly do you feel that scenario is likely?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Night 2

Postby Crunkus_old » 17 Jan 2017, 19:38

@dodgy: Question about your activity from yesterday, did it get answered? As town are you okay with eventually needing to be lynched as a result of simple lack of data regarding you? Where are you with that, and will RL circumstances allow you to become more active in the coming game days?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Night 2

Postby Crunkus_old » 17 Jan 2017, 19:43

shadowfriend1 wrote:Good morning everyone. Looks like no one cheated; I have 0 push/pulls for the record.

Tomorrow's busy for me, so I'm going to get on this now.

Jordan767

I've been gut reading Jordan as scum for almost the whole game, but I've had a hard time getting a case together, and I hate to rely on gut reads. Yesterday I didn't get around to making a case that I thought could convince the anti-smith camp, which I regret. Luckily, there is much more to work with today now that we can talk about something other than smith.

Jordan767 wrote:Caught up. Note: school wifi is total crap.

Going to go back and respond to things starting with EoD yesterday.

Before I do, some thoughts:

mhsmith0 looks pretty scummy. Also has pretty much only talked about mechanics and why he's town today. Not a fan.

This vote bothered me when he made it. It's hard to peg why, but I think it's that voting for someone because they look pretty scummy is not just bandwagoning, but bandwagoning in an unconvinced manner. When you're town, either you think someone is scummy or not. Their appearance is less valuable to a townie, but of course the only factor scum can use to construct a case.



As scum, do you personally find yourself making an effort to extensively justify your votes, or do you find yourself mostly saying things like this?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Night 2

Postby justy » 17 Jan 2017, 20:05

Crunkus wrote:
justy wrote:Hello, it's nice to be playing again!

@Telleo, I'm caught up, although reading as spectator, my feel for the thread is a bit shabby.

I pushed Sjg and have now 3 pull points.

I'm scum-reading Jordan because his play style is similar to his scum play in BMS2 and Fable 8. However, his EoD2 interaction with mhsmith felt different and I have to look into it.


Justy:

It is in my experience a trivial thing to identify someone's performance as consistent with previous scum performances. Part of being scum is in part, trying to play like you would as town. To the extent anyone succeeds, that's a lot of play that can be mined as "consistent with scum" that really isn't indicative of anything.

What's more interesting to me is when you identify play behaviours that are inconsistent in your experience with that person's play as town.

Would you agree with this logically, and do you have any behaviours you have noticed about Jordan that are inconsistent in your experience with his play as town?

Having said that, what behaviours were you specifically concerned about? I couldn't really relate from what you posted on the subject as you didn't get very specific.


I do agree with your logic. However, I think that looking for inconsistencies requires enough shared history with that player, or at least reading enough past games. I've played twice with Jordan and he was scum both times. So I don't really know what his town game looks like, and my attempts on behavioral read on Jordan (I used this reason also in my previous game with him to scum-read him) are based on assumption that when I meet town Jordan for the first time, I might notice some difference.

The behaviour that caught my attention was the increasing amount of apathy and more passive stance he took after Happy was in trouble, and during D2. My experiences from Big Medium Small 2 and Fable 8 have led me to see scum Jordan as someone who starts with intensity and then when things start to go bad for scum, he gets really passive. I'm now re-reading Jordan from this game and hopefully can be more specific.


Crunkus wrote:
justy wrote:I town read Crunk. I think his case against Smit was good. I especially liked the bit about Happy's interaction with Smith and the bit (also made by others) about smith not being open and engaging with other players' concerns.


Why was it good? It was wrong. How do you account for that?


I think your case was consistent. I felt that your reasons to scum-read Smith were good and that the actions and interactions you pointed out fitted the events on thread. I also felt that Smith being scum was good explanation for things you pointed out.

So even if the case was wrong, it didn't seem to be coming from scummy place.

Crunkus wrote:
justy wrote:Keir I'm suspicious of. This might not make right to what he did D2, but my current feeling is that Keir was mostly concerned with D2 being all about Smith, without really doing much about it himself.


What do you mean when you say that your current feeling is that Keir was "mostly concerned with D2 being all about smith"?


What I remember of Keir's posts from D2 was him requesting both Smith and others to start talking other things than Smith. My feeling is that he didn't post much about other things himself. I'd have to check if that's true, though, but that's how I remember Keir's involvement in D2.

Crunkus wrote:
justy wrote:In general, I believe final scum wished to keep Smith alive D2 as that would have kept game in half paralyzed state longer and left good mislynch candidate later. So I'm looking for votes that felt forced and those players who didn't want to vote Smith but also didn't try to solve the situation. Latter is point against scum Keir idea, because Keir tried to get Smith open up his play style.


Do you sincerely feel the last remaining scum, having just lost Happymeal in that particular way, sincerely hoped to affect a change in the inertia of yesterday to leave the game paralyzed? If so, how strongly do you feel that scenario is likely?


I sincerely feel that. However, I've learned in last few games to tone down my paranoia and drop some of the most wild scum scenarios. I think that this scenario might be one of those. It would require quite experienced scum to do that. But I want to check if I find some indications of this happening. I think that if it did happen, scum must have tried to switch lynch target quite early D2. I doubt they'd try to do that later during D2, as Smith lynch became more certain and scum would probably have realized the futility of changing the target and therefore wouldn't have drawn attention to themselves at that point anymore.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Night 2

Postby Crunkus_old » 17 Jan 2017, 20:14

shadowfriend1 wrote:This very soft kind of reasoning is clearly why he reads smith though: many times he says things like:
a scum explanation comes far more readily than a town one.

Strikes me that the read could be manufactured. I don't know.

Knowing that smith is town now, these kinds of comments are clearly part of setting up a mislynch without ever actually being wrong. This continues throughout Jordan's day, as following comments show.


How is he any less wrong as a result of these? How is he any less responsible? If this is what you would characterize as "soft", would you be similarly concerned with anyone who talked in terms of differential likelihoods of town vs. wolf explanations? Has anyone else in the game spoken like that?

Has Jordan ever used stronger language about his opinion of who the best lynch was than found in these specific comments in your view? Have you checked?

Why did you choose to use the word "clearly" here? Should it be more obvious to me than it is in your view? Did you look for these types of comments from anyone else?

shadowfriend1 wrote:
With all of this, I'm having genuine difficulties not shouting OMGUS at you [smith] and moving on.

Jordan's voting this guy, while acknowledging that he's doing so for OMGUS reasons.


That's just not what he said. Could you re-read the sentence you quoted and your characterization that this means he's voting for smith for OMGUS reasons? I mean, you just listed the reasons he actually listed.

shadowfriend1 wrote: Which is a very bad situation that townies get into by accident, but not consciously. OMGUS is an excuse to vote for someone, that you should not be claiming before the fact.


He didn't. Go back and read the quote.

shadowfriend1 wrote:Already Jordan's trying to distance himself from the smith lynch and make excuses for it.


You were pretty glib about asking people if they had the evidence to support such a conclusion earlier. I'd ask you the same question now. Are you spinning a narrative here where you can eliminate other possible explanations, and have made an effort to do so, or are you stringing quotes together and insisting it means he is distancing himself from the conclusion.

As someone who would be conceivably quite easier to spin a narrative together as distancing themselves from a bad lynch today, why is this such a priority for you in terms of deciding that Jordan looks guilty? It seems strange that your instinct is to look for signs of distancing from a bad lynch...and it seems weird that Jordan is where you find them. A lot of what you are saying makes it hard to see you examining other people for signs of the same things you deem danger signs.

Do you know what I mean?

shadowfriend1 wrote: Clearly, as scum he was compelled to join the smith wagon originally because it was a mislynch. But once no counterlynch materialized, and his vote was no longer needed, there was really no easy way for Jordan to move off of mhsmith. It's not realistic for scum, or anyone for that matter, to unvote near EOD without having another lynch to join. I mean, where would that random town-read come from? Clearly this constraint would apply to anyone who was voting mhsmith at EOD, but many of those players went down convinced of their read. Jordan, in contrast, distances himself from it as best he can without unvoting. More on this later.


Again, why the "clearly"? Do you not feel that's overstating things quite a bit? It's weird that you are criticizing others and their case against smith for not having the evidence to clearly demonstrate their point...and then...clearly, clearly, clearly, on this kind of stuff.

Would you say it is fair to say that's a bit of double standard?

shadowfriend1 wrote:
Jordan767 wrote:To do overnight: ...
reread any and all reasons that have been given to townread these two players (IIRC there are some? I'll check) so I can make sure I'm not just being stupid

Jordan doesn't understand why people have any townreads, but wants to be seen as considering it. Many players today understand precisely why there are townreads on players like Telleo and ZZ, but Jordan doesn't. Scum can't afford that.


Again, I don't get the feeling you are applying any of this sort of reasoning to anyone but Jordan...nor do I see how you could be applying it consistently.

Does that seem like a fair observation? Have you been applying this sort of reasoning toward your investigation of other players in the game?
Would any of these types of things have applied to smith?

shadowfriend1 wrote:How do we know that he genuinely didn't understand why people have town reads today? That's plausible for a townie, sure. But shortly before he makes the above post, in which is doesn't understand why townreads are out there, he posts this in response to mhsmith's lengthy explaination of his townreads here: viewtopic.php?f=306&t=54506&start=1417


...this feels like you are stretching pretty far over backwards given some of the things you had to say about the smith case yesterday. It's weird to read this, and then read your criticisms of the smith case.

Thanks for taking the time to say so much. I look forward to getting to understand your process in detail today. I hope you extend that courtesy to Telleo, who you seem to believe is town. She's been asking some very reasonable questions that given your understanding of her as town, are fairly easily explained as a teammate trying to get to the bottom of your alignment rather than your stated conclusion of a townie who actually thinks you are evil and have "evil motives". I don't know what you meant by evil motives. If you meant in game terms, then your conclusion that she is town just means that's clearly what she is doing...and its your job to assist her in that task not to be surprised she's doing it. That's what got smith killed. He forgot that has was playing a team game with players on his team trying to make the best they could out of his alignment. He decided it was more productive to lecture them and deride them for reading him poorly rather than take personal responsibility for anything and meet his teammates half way with a productive attitude. It's not something I thought he would do, as the last times I'd played with him AS WOLF he did a better job of that than he did here. I've seen him play before as a much more productive member of the team. He's apparently got a bee in his bonnet about something, and maybe one day he'll get rid of it, but that's up to him.

But the point is, this business of pushing back on Telleo doesn't make anymore sense for you to do as town than it did for smith. It's anti-town behaviour particularly when you say you believe the person you are talking to is town.

The wolves have every incentive to behave that way, particularly when town are giving them cover by doing the same thing for emotional and non-game related reasons. You can blame the other party for "making you feel that way" but that only goes so far. Also, I have a real hard time you legitimately feel town Telleo thinks you are somehow evil...that's just silly. Come on, shadow. If you are town, cut that out.
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