Pet Mafia Game Thread

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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Aeschines » 21 Dec 2019, 21:28

Btw, Joe's vote is on BS so mine is there also.

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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 21 Dec 2019, 21:31

kimpossible wrote:A perverse part of me wants to YOLO lynch sjg, knowing that we could actually lose the game today if it's a BS/Lecrae team, but if we did at least I'm not playing over Christmas vacation.


C'mon, have some fun. :twisted:
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby kimpossible » 21 Dec 2019, 21:32

We cannot afford to go 3:2 if both dogs and the fish are town. At 3:2 we can't win.

I'm just not confident enough in any scumread to bet the entire game on it today. Justy buys us two flips before MYLO.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 21 Dec 2019, 21:36

Aeschines wrote:I think we should vig kill Justy. I actually do think Justy is town (the late Savannah reveal) but I think this is gg if justy is scum and Joe dies to the NK without us hitting Justy.

Worst case scenario we go down to 3:2 lylo tomorrow. If we don't vig Justy we end up at 4:2 Mylo in the worst case and autolose is Justy is scum.

I'm still comfortable leaving my vote on BS, but I'm also fine with Lecrae or sjg.

To answer the repeated question about my scum reads... None of them are actual SRs, except maybe BS (and him not being Savannah means my read on him was less accurate than I'd hoped). I'm fine with TKing Lecrae, BS, or sjg because I've process of elimination downed to those four because of my TRs on Kim and Nook (and Joe). At a certain point, I can't do better than random. I don't trust reads without something to base them off of. And D1 there isn't very much solidity to base things on

Since Joe is my strongest TR (town lock, actually for me), I'm planning to vote for whichever of L BS or SJG he votes for to try to ensure town is driving today's vote and not scum.


I'm cool if you scumread BS, and I can vaguely see the BS/myself distancing argument through my biased lenses (but did our interactions really come up as unnatural? It's easy to find a scum motivation behind stuff and say "they could be a team!!!", but does the interaction really not jive from a town/town or town/scum perspective?). So alright. But your progression doesn't make any sense.

You went from "I scumread BS and town lean Lecrae" to "I actually think BS needs to stay since he's active so I want Lecrae or justy gone and maybe I guess sjg" back to "Let's Lynch BS and Lecrae's my best bet at his partner". Zero explanation for why your reads have changed throughout the game.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby justy » 21 Dec 2019, 21:43

I'll get back to the rest of it when on computer, but why is it necessary to kill Savannah today AND tomorrow? Wasn't tomorrow supposed to be about killing the scummiest player? Killing Savannah today only means that if you all at some later point think that I'm the scummiest, it's possible for you to kill me.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 21 Dec 2019, 21:43

kimpossible wrote:We cannot afford to go 3:2 if both dogs and the fish are town. At 3:2 we can't win.

I'm just not confident enough in any scumread to bet the entire game on it today. Justy buys us two flips before MYLO.


Right now, there is a 1.78% chance myself and BS are scum. Even if we are so suspicious together to bring it up to 5%, or even 10%, a 10% risk of losing the game for an extra lynch feels like it should be worth it. It's one permutation out of 56 that loses the game.


I'd even rather Lynch BS than justy since, while I townlean BS slightly, it's a free lynch, BS may get mislynched in the future anyway, and I also think a sjg/kim partnership is highly unlikely. I dunno, I'm driving myself crazy but I feel like I'm right here.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby justy » 21 Dec 2019, 22:03

lecrae wrote:
kimpossible wrote:We cannot afford to go 3:2 if both dogs and the fish are town. At 3:2 we can't win.

I'm just not confident enough in any scumread to bet the entire game on it today. Justy buys us two flips before MYLO.


Right now, there is a 1.78% chance myself and BS are scum. Even if we are so suspicious together to bring it up to 5%, or even 10%, a 10% risk of losing the game for an extra lynch feels like it should be worth it. It's one permutation out of 56 that loses the game.


I'd even rather Lynch BS than justy since, while I townlean BS slightly, it's a free lynch, BS may get mislynched in the future anyway, and I also think a sjg/kim partnership is highly unlikely. I dunno, I'm driving myself crazy but I feel like I'm right here.


What is this maddness? You want to make two kills today, and one of them is slight townlean. What good would it do for town to kill town Blackswimmer today? Why don't you want to see what he has to say tomorrow, and maybe even what I have to say tomorrow. Or if nightkill gives you more info on who to kill tomorrow.

When is it ever good idea to kill as many people as you can because you can?
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Blackswimmer » 21 Dec 2019, 22:11

kimpossible wrote:But let me think. If we go with a different TK today, 5:2, shoot Justy, 4:2, NK 3:2. I mean if today is a miss and Justy is town. Worst case analysis.

So either way it's end game and in the latter scenario we have odd numbers.

Shit yeah, that is better.

Seeing as everyone's forgotten, seems like, I'm going to throw out there that Shadow exists.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby lecrae » 21 Dec 2019, 22:13

justy wrote:
lecrae wrote:
kimpossible wrote:We cannot afford to go 3:2 if both dogs and the fish are town. At 3:2 we can't win.

I'm just not confident enough in any scumread to bet the entire game on it today. Justy buys us two flips before MYLO.


Right now, there is a 1.78% chance myself and BS are scum. Even if we are so suspicious together to bring it up to 5%, or even 10%, a 10% risk of losing the game for an extra lynch feels like it should be worth it. It's one permutation out of 56 that loses the game.


I'd even rather Lynch BS than justy since, while I townlean BS slightly, it's a free lynch, BS may get mislynched in the future anyway, and I also think a sjg/kim partnership is highly unlikely. I dunno, I'm driving myself crazy but I feel like I'm right here.


What is this maddness? You want to make two kills today, and one of them is slight townlean. What good would it do for town to kill town Blackswimmer today? Why don't you want to see what he has to say tomorrow, and maybe even what I have to say tomorrow. Or if nightkill gives you more info on who to kill tomorrow.

When is it ever good idea to kill as many people as you can because you can?


The good it does for town to kill BS is based on the sense I'm getting that people are so worried about a BS/myself scum team that it may distract the town on D2 and cause a potential mislynch. Obviously it's not ideal, but if sjg is really a lynch that no one even is considering because of that BS/myself fear, then it makes sense for one of the two of us to get lynched today because it brings us to 3-2 tomorrow worst-case instead of 4-2. 3-2 is way better than 4-2 because the field is more narrow and we get to choose who that extra death is instead of scum. On top of that, my town lean on BS is nowhere near 100%, so it's not like he's a confirmed townie dying today.

Let me be clear, however; my vote's still on sjg because I want to lynch him. I'm not giving up on it yet. Speaking of, didn't you scumread the guy a couple hours ago?

PPE:

Blackswimmer wrote:
kimpossible wrote:But let me think. If we go with a different TK today, 5:2, shoot Justy, 4:2, NK 3:2. I mean if today is a miss and Justy is town. Worst case analysis.

So either way it's end game and in the latter scenario we have odd numbers.

Shit yeah, that is better.

Seeing as everyone's forgotten, seems like, I'm going to throw out there that Shadow exists.


Don't forget Pepper.
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Re: Pet Mafia Game Thread

Postby Blackswimmer » 21 Dec 2019, 22:17

lecrae wrote:PPE:

Blackswimmer wrote:
kimpossible wrote:But let me think. If we go with a different TK today, 5:2, shoot Justy, 4:2, NK 3:2. I mean if today is a miss and Justy is town. Worst case analysis.

So either way it's end game and in the latter scenario we have odd numbers.

Shit yeah, that is better.

Seeing as everyone's forgotten, seems like, I'm going to throw out there that Shadow exists.


Don't forget Pepper.

Well yeah, but pepper in scum hands isn't an auto-loss at 3:2.
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