Hydra Nightmares Mafia

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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby StallionHeadHydra » 02 Sep 2018, 17:31

NewPhoneWhoDis wrote:
StallionHeadHydra wrote:NewPhone and UAcro, can you both create a summary on why you are voting for MoUFOs? At the present time, if you had to take a guess on the pair of Hydras that are Mafia, who would be your best bets?

I'll leave my analysis of SJG to later/tomorrow if I survive. For today, in light of this new scenario, I'm going to re-read both UAcro and MoUFOs in ISO.


At the moment, I'm voting MoUFO because I think there are two likely scum teams:
UA + MoUFO
Aggro + MoUFO

I really don't see UA + Aggro. I don't think you are scum.

Out of Aggro, UA and MoUFO, I think that MoUFO has least reasons to town-read them. I do not have much concrete reasons to scum-read them, which is why my plan is to ISO them (and UA if I have time) before day ends. At the moment, I think that UFO's UA vote at the beginning of D2 based on wagonimics is red flag. I went through his games here on this site (latest Fable, Tribal and Alien Infection) and found that in none of those he seemed to vote based on wagonimics. This makes me think his vote now is something pre-decided and that most likely it is decided in scum chat (because him not doing it before suggests outside input).

-justy


However, there's a counterargument to that - namely, he was a member of Mafia in Tribal, rather than a member of Town. I think that he was also Mafia in the latest Fable, if I'm not mistaken.

Therefore, this change wouldn't necessarily indicate that he's part of the Mafia, except if he decided to change his meta because of his role as Mafia in two recent games... hmm. I guess I can see that.

Nonetheless, do take into account that UFO did not act like that in his past scum games. Perhaps this is not as alignment-indicating as we might think.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby NewPhoneWhoDis » 02 Sep 2018, 17:33

NewPhoneWhoDis wrote:Ok, but you need to factor in that Nook was basically catching up with the thread when he played EoD. I'd expect that scum UA would have a plan for their EoD vote, which Nook then would execute. But now he just kept catching up, instead of doing something that could effectively save his life. Of course, in the end he did save himself, but I think that unless MoUFO is their partner, scum played this really risky.

-justy


Don't know what my brain fart there was. MoUFO being their partner doesn't really matter here, they did play EoD risky if they were scum. Basically they expected some other wagon to rise without them doing anything to create it.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby NewPhoneWhoDis » 02 Sep 2018, 17:37

StallionHeadHydra wrote:However, there's a counterargument to that - namely, he was a member of Mafia in Tribal, rather than a member of Town. I think that he was also Mafia in the latest Fable, if I'm not mistaken.

Therefore, this change wouldn't necessarily indicate that he's part of the Mafia, except if he decided to change his meta because of his role as Mafia in two recent games... hmm. I guess I can see that.

Nonetheless, do take into account that UFO did not act like that in his past scum games. Perhaps this is not as alignment-indicating as we might think.


UFO didn't use wagonomics either in his town game Alien Infection (under username Napoleon Hitler). So this is new for him regardless of alignment. So either he has decided to start use wagonomics himself (I doubt Fatmo suggested this as newbie player), or he has had discussions about wagonomics with someone during night.

I know this isn't super strong but I'd like to hear UFO's thoughts on the matter.

-justy
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby NewPhoneWhoDis » 02 Sep 2018, 18:00

I'm fine with the UFO vote since I would have ended up there barring a very good reply from UFO. Since that still hasn't happened, I'll lay out my thoughts quickly here so that we have some time to process.

I don't buy this switch to UAcro today. It feels artificial. It seemed strange to me, so I asked UFO about it. He gave me the vague, hand-wave-y "sjg looked solvy this morning". Really? So you stuck your vote on him yesterday, but now that's all out the window because of one post, and now you're voting for the second place vote from yesterday?

It smacks of hidden intentions to me.

Now I can see a narrative in which MoUFOs decides "ah screw it, they're probably going to kill my teammate anyway. Let's get some townie credit and try to ride out tomorrow." I think the move towards the no lynch vote would particularly work here if you believe that MoUFOs didn't want to have to bus UAcro but now sees it as necessary due to the current ratio.

But what it looks more like to me is MoUFOs trying not to be on the wrong lynch on day 1 (thus not going for UAcro or Stallion, who had 3 and 2 votes respectively at the time). There were about 5 hours remaining in the day at the time of his vote IIRC. He wasn't pushing the sjaggro vote super hard, so there's little reason to think that vote will pick up enough traction to be a problem. To me, it looks like UFO found a safe moment to throw down a distancing vote against his scumbuddy sjaggro. Now that we're in the endgame, he doesn't want to kill his teammate right away.

I lean more towards the MoUFOs-sjaggro team as well because of the doubt I expressed for a MoUFOs-UAcro team due to this voting behavior. It's still possible that MoUFOs-UAcro is a team, but those circumstances simply don't strike me as tactical scum voting behavior.

This all stems from my dislike of UFO's progression on sjaggro. As I laid out in a previous post with a few links to the relevant times, their opinion seems to have changed several times in a way that does not feel entirely sincere.

I will admit that I do not have a great deal of certainty in anything at this point, but the UAcro lynch simply does not feel right. I think UFOs made a mistake today, and I think it is the best readable moment available right now.

- FS
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby sjaggressive11 » 02 Sep 2018, 18:01

NewPhoneWhoDis wrote:
sjaggressive11 wrote:
This is mostly because I have a feeling that Shadow's play so far hasn't been really indicative of either alignment. She just seems to be busy. However, I think that her answers to your case against her have been good and I don't think your case is reason to scum-read her. I liked Nanook's posts near EOD1, I felt like he wasn't too stressed about what would happen to him or where his vote should end up. Also the very little interaction he and Shadow had felt genuine argument about who to vote. I do think that were they scum, they might have tried to make some case to save themselves and stick to it. But I have to admit that I don't know Nook's play well enough to know if your case today against him (Nook being too meh about his reads) or shirt's case against him yesterday (Nook not wanting to pick fight with Telleo by VEVO voting her) have merit. I have to admit that when I finally realized that Nook actually agreed with shirt's arguments, I don't think Nook fully have answered to shirt's questioning about the issue.


So, on nook cos we've talked the shadow issue to death at this point.

Your phrasing interests me. Nook "wasn't too stressed about... where his vote should end up". I think that's kinda the main reason why Zip was voting for UA earlier today. Nook... doesn't seem stressed about the fact we're at LYLO and he doesn't really have a firm scumread. That's... just not the town nook I've played with in the past.


Ok, but you need to factor in that Nook was basically catching up with the thread when he played EoD. I'd expect that scum UA would have a plan for their EoD vote, which Nook then would execute. But now he just kept catching up, instead of doing something that could effectively save his life. Of course, in the end he did save himself, but I think that unless MoUFO is their partner, scum played this really risky.

-justy

1. But town nook should equally be stressed about dying. Like town UA should be thinking "Here goes our only mislynch" at that point surely?
2. And of course MoUFO as the partner is a possibility. As is a scenario where NewPhone is the partner.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby sjaggressive11 » 02 Sep 2018, 18:05

NewPhoneWhoDis wrote:
StallionHeadHydra wrote:However, there's a counterargument to that - namely, he was a member of Mafia in Tribal, rather than a member of Town. I think that he was also Mafia in the latest Fable, if I'm not mistaken.

Therefore, this change wouldn't necessarily indicate that he's part of the Mafia, except if he decided to change his meta because of his role as Mafia in two recent games... hmm. I guess I can see that.

Nonetheless, do take into account that UFO did not act like that in his past scum games. Perhaps this is not as alignment-indicating as we might think.


UFO didn't use wagonomics either in his town game Alien Infection (under username Napoleon Hitler). So this is new for him regardless of alignment. So either he has decided to start use wagonomics himself (I doubt Fatmo suggested this as newbie player), or he has had discussions about wagonomics with someone during night.

I know this isn't super strong but I'd like to hear UFO's thoughts on the matter.

-justy

Likewise interested in the response although I suspect I know the response already.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby sjaggressive11 » 02 Sep 2018, 18:10

FS, good point on UFO's 180 on UA.

My narrative for it is obvs different and involves a UA-MoUFO scumteam but the moment's a decent one to look at. I mean setting up a Mo-UFO + sjg scumteam with UA as the poor, helpless victim... it's not a bad scum tactic given that the two of them were likely in a spot EOD 1.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby NewPhoneWhoDis » 02 Sep 2018, 18:14

sjaggressive11 wrote:1. But town nook should equally be stressed about dying. Like town UA should be thinking "Here goes our only mislynch" at that point surely?
2. And of course MoUFO as the partner is a possibility. As is a scenario where NewPhone is the partner.


1. But as town, best way to affect that situation is try to catch up and find scum. One can't really take shortcuts on that, can they? So Nook doing his best, answering questions and making (not-so-well-judged) votes and reads catching up is something that seems like what town would do. Whereas scum could use help of his scum chums to conjure up some reads that he could save him.

Also, IMHO being about to get mislynched isn't as stressful as being about to get correctly lynched. I think scum would have more pressure to deliver in that situation.

2. Newermind what I said re 2. But yeah, I agree that MoUFO and UA is possible pairing. Although my other head made a good point about this meaning that MoUFO would start D2 by voting their scum chum.

-justy
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby StallionHeadHydra » 02 Sep 2018, 18:25

NewPhoneWhoDis wrote:
sjaggressive11 wrote:1. But town nook should equally be stressed about dying. Like town UA should be thinking "Here goes our only mislynch" at that point surely?
2. And of course MoUFO as the partner is a possibility. As is a scenario where NewPhone is the partner.


1. But as town, best way to affect that situation is try to catch up and find scum. One can't really take shortcuts on that, can they? So Nook doing his best, answering questions and making (not-so-well-judged) votes and reads catching up is something that seems like what town would do. Whereas scum could use help of his scum chums to conjure up some reads that he could save him.

Also, IMHO being about to get mislynched isn't as stressful as being about to get correctly lynched. I think scum would have more pressure to deliver in that situation.

2. Newermind what I said re 2. But yeah, I agree that MoUFO and UA is possible pairing. Although my other head made a good point about this meaning that MoUFO would start D2 by voting their scum chum.

-justy


I have to disagree with point #1 for this specific game. Town loses by screwing twice (which entails not selecting the scum, which are part of the minority). Mafia loses by screwing twice (which entails being selected as scum).

The leniency for mistakes is equal for Town and Mafia, but it's far easier for Town to make a screw-up. Being mislynched as Town would put us in a scenario where we have to be right twice in a row, whereas being correctly lynched as Mafia would still allow scum to try slipping through the cracks.

Besides, we need to recall that Mafia acts from a position of knowledge - less unknown variables is bound to mean more safety and more confidence. I do believe that a Townie mislynch is more stressful in this given format, and I believe that Sinny's reactions to the event showcase that.
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Re: Hydra Nightmares Mafia

Postby sjaggressive11 » 02 Sep 2018, 18:29

StallionHeadHydra wrote:
NewPhoneWhoDis wrote:
sjaggressive11 wrote:1. But town nook should equally be stressed about dying. Like town UA should be thinking "Here goes our only mislynch" at that point surely?
2. And of course MoUFO as the partner is a possibility. As is a scenario where NewPhone is the partner.


1. But as town, best way to affect that situation is try to catch up and find scum. One can't really take shortcuts on that, can they? So Nook doing his best, answering questions and making (not-so-well-judged) votes and reads catching up is something that seems like what town would do. Whereas scum could use help of his scum chums to conjure up some reads that he could save him.

Also, IMHO being about to get mislynched isn't as stressful as being about to get correctly lynched. I think scum would have more pressure to deliver in that situation.

2. Newermind what I said re 2. But yeah, I agree that MoUFO and UA is possible pairing. Although my other head made a good point about this meaning that MoUFO would start D2 by voting their scum chum.

-justy


I have to disagree with point #1 for this specific game. Town loses by screwing twice (which entails not selecting the scum, which are part of the minority). Mafia loses by screwing twice (which entails being selected as scum).

The leniency for mistakes is equal for Town and Mafia, but it's far easier for Town to make a screw-up. Being mislynched as Town would put us in a scenario where we have to be right twice in a row, whereas being correctly lynched as Mafia would still allow scum to try slipping through the cracks.

Besides, we need to recall that Mafia acts from a position of knowledge - less unknown variables is bound to mean more safety and more confidence. I do believe that a Townie mislynch is more stressful in this given format, and I believe that Sinny's reactions to the event showcase that.

Well... this ^ for point one.

We had one mislynch here. There was more pressure on this Day One than there would be on a standard Day One.

Plus I didn't really see anything in the content of nook trying to catch up and ask questions that made that look sincere rather than faked.
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