Hydra Nightmares Mafia

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Sorry guys for not being around. Should be able to do so in tomorrow morning (12 hours or so), maybe even tonight.

I’ve skimmed the thread while I can and am somewhat updated to big events. I know about modkill and that we have to get this right. Which makes me sorry for not being able to participate more. Right now, without analyzing final votes of D1 or wagons mics, I’m most suspicious of sjg. However, I also think I have to reread MoUFO, who have gone under my radar after first half of D1. And also, now that UA have started playing and both of their halves have caught up with thread, I’m interested to see what has happened there.

-justy

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Posting from my phone. I slept on some ideas, and I'd like to get some things out there before I can come back later today and digest some things.

I'm almost certainly not voting Damon today. If he faked his emotional reaction to the Zoom modkill and his subsequent vote for me, then he frankly earned the win as scum. I'm more inclined, based on this, my previous townread on him, and my most recent ISO of him, to believe that he's sincerely town.

So there's one townie between the three of MoUFOs, sjaggro, and UAcro.

UFO, can you walk me through where your head is at with relation to sjaggro? What in particular makes him look much better today? Can you also give me some more about why you are restricting your votes to UAcro and myself? What do you think about my stream of consciousness-y stuff about how conventional wagonomics might not be applicable here?

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

- FS

(Still can't consistently remember to do that)

[MoUFOsMoProblems]

Posting from my phone. I slept on some ideas, and I'd like to get some things out there before I can come back later today and digest some things.

I'm almost certainly not voting Damon today. If he faked his emotional reaction to the Zoom modkill and his subsequent vote for me, then he frankly earned the win as scum. I'm more inclined, based on this, my previous townread on him, and my most recent ISO of him, to believe that he's sincerely town.

So there's one townie between the three of MoUFOs, sjaggro, and UAcro.

UFO, can you walk me through where your head is at with relation to sjaggro? What in particular makes him look much better today? Can you also give me some more about why you are restricting your votes to UAcro and myself? What do you think about my stream of consciousness-y stuff about how conventional wagonomics might not be applicable here?

His first post of the day where he went through Zoomador's EOD seemed too solvy for scum to me. I feel that it would have been pretty easy to dismiss what ZZ did or make a dark horse case at him being scum. And I'm looking at you or UA for today only because honestly, if topless had 3 town votes on them then we deserve to lose this game anyway, so I'm only going to read that lynch as at least 1 scum on them.

[MoUFOsMoProblems]

I join FS in my apologies for not being around as much as I should. I know I was quiet yesterday, but was trying to follow along. A lot of steam seemed to go out of the game after the modkill and there wasn’t the ridiculous volume of day one to go through.

NewPhone, can you maybe link a few of your posts that you specifically want me to look at? It was mainly one or two Sj posts, I believe before the modkill, that gave me at least a more Townie feel than before. I remember reading through some of your longer posts and thinking the logic was sound, though I don’t remember specifics at moment.

As of now, UFO and I agree about UA being a scum vote. And it seems we agree about Stallion being town. You seem to agree with that as well. I’ll admit I didn’t quite understand Sj’s post saying that if day one was “T-T,” scum team is likely UA and NewPhone. And that if it was “T-W,” scum team is likely Stallion and MoUFOs.

Sorry for noob questions, but I don’t know what T-T and T-W mean. Would you care to explain?

Also, what’s ISO? Again, as I promised earlier, I’m asking these questions in public because it was agreed to have all our conversations in public.

So basically, as things stand now, it seems most of us agree that UA is our most likely scum vote. And if that works out for town, we get rid of one scum and then one townie gets killed at night. We all seem to read Stallion as townie as of now. Correct me if I’m wrong there. But as of now, none of us seem sure who the other scum would be. Again correct me if I’m wrong and someone has a pick of specific 2 scum team they are convinced of. Because both UFO and me have been pretty silent today, I can see why people might suspect us. Plus there’s just so few people left that we all ought to be suspicious of everyone to some degree.

As for MoUfos, I feel like if we get to tomorrow and NewPhone and Sj are still around, UFO would lean a bit more to Sj as town, while I lean a bit more to NewPhone. But I think we are both flexible and open minded. I’m certainly trying to keep an open mind.

Would it do any good to mentally walk through various night kill situations and what they might mean? I saw that Kim was trying to do that day one, but some people seemed to think those thoughts should be held close to the vest. I’m good either way.

~Mo

[MoUFOsMoProblems]

Hey NewPhone, why the hell are you still voting Zoomador?

-UFO

[MoUFOsMoProblems]

@Fatmo
T-T means Town/Town. As in, if both Topless and UA were both Town and were the leading vote getters. Scum wouldn't care which of them dies.
T-W means Town/Wolves. As in, since Topless was town and if UA was scum, the other scum partner would care a great deal if UA would have been lynched last night. Wolves is just another word for scum.

Idk what the exact definition of ISO is, but the links smith provided on the first page of the game allow you to sort through all of an individual player's posts, that way you don't have to read through the whole thread just to find stuff on one specific player.

[MoUFOsMoProblems]

Ahh ok, thanks UFO.

So basically when you guys use ISO as a verb, it just means going back and reading old posts from specific players. Got it.

[NewPhoneWhoDis]

Here for a little bit.

Thanks for the response, UFO.

His first post of the day where he went through Zoomador's EOD seemed too solvy for scum to me. I feel that it would have been pretty easy to dismiss what ZZ did or make a dark horse case at him being scum. And I'm looking at you or UA for today only because honestly, if topless had 3 town votes on them then we deserve to lose this game anyway, so I'm only going to read that lynch as at least 1 scum on them.

So it seemed to solvy. Okay. I'm going to have some more questions for you on that one. Stay tuned.

As for the bit about if topless had 3 townies on them, then we deserve to lose anyway. Hard disagree? Like, is it that baffling a concept to you that three townies could be wrong on a lynch? You're way too readily throwing out the possibility that UAcro was town and thus the mafia would not care which of dwiltsbee/UAcro died. I'm not pushing this as the end all be all of wagon analysis. It's entirely possible that UAcro is scum. But I don't find this deliberate restriction of your voting range based on that mess of a wagon at EOD1 to be particularly useful.

The sort of analysis in which there must be X number of scum on a given wagon can sometimes hold weight, but the simple truth here is that our votes were so scattered and disorganized that this sort of analysis just doesn't work as well.

Okay, now back to UFO's choice to lynch UAcro instead of sjaggro today:

UFO with a slight town read on sjaggro:
viewtopic.php?f=306&t=58420&p=959767#p959767

Mo not sure either way:
viewtopic.php?f=306&t=58420&p=959775#p959775

UFO agrees with Fatmo saying that sjaggro hasn't made a big impact and votes for sjaggro:
viewtopic.php?f=306&t=58420&p=960052#p960052

Okay, so what I'm wondering here is what your progression was here. You guys had a slight town read and a null read on sjaggro, but then UFO goes for the vote on sjaggro at this point. I'm mostly looking for clarification from UFO here, but I'm happy to get a response from either of you here.

So what I'm wondering here is exactly what you guys thought at the points I pointed out and how much you wanted to lynch sjaggro yesterday.

Hey NewPhone, why the hell are you still voting Zoomador?

-UFO

Don't worry. I'm getting there.

- FS

[StallionHeadHydra]

@Fatmo
T-T means Town/Town. As in, if both Topless and UA were both Town and were the leading vote getters. Scum wouldn't care which of them dies.
T-W means Town/Wolves. As in, since Topless was town and if UA was scum, the other scum partner would care a great deal if UA would have been lynched last night. Wolves is just another word for scum.

Idk what the exact definition of ISO is, but the links smith provided on the first page of the game allow you to sort through all of an individual player's posts, that way you don't have to read through the whole thread just to find stuff on one specific player.

Just for the record, ISO means (In) Isolation. That's why it refers to looking only at a player's post - you're reading his track record in isolation from the rest of things.