Mafia CLXX: Internal Affairs 2.0 Game over (Town wins!)

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Re: Mafia CLXX: Internal Affairs 2.0 Game thread (Day 1)

Postby kimpossible » 06 Mar 2018, 01:40

Parabellum wrote:Ok. I want to reread some parts of that thing Kim linked to, but here's the important part:

Town strategy?

Option 1 – lynch today – largely based on opening day garbage, highly likely go to 3:2. Then try to lynch right on day 2 with only one day of garbage lynch data to work on. Meanwhile, totally ignore the mechanics as a trick. So that’s our game? A Vanilla game with possibly only 2 lynches before loss? Very unattractive! And persuading you this is the town’s best option and shutting down any meaningful strategy dialogue with which – in turn - to generate meaningful scum-hunting thread data feels like a scum wet dream to me…

Option 2 – no lynch today. Go to 4:2. You must then no lynch day 2 as well. Go to 3:2 and have 3 nights of investigative data to layer on top of in-thread ‘guts’ and use that to make the ‘key’ lynch.

Which gives you better odds of spotting scum at the key 3:2 moment? Well, debating that should at least give you more data to play with either way.


So what do we think about no lynch?

We don't have that option now. It was changed for the 12p version.
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Re: Mafia CLXX: Internal Affairs 2.0 Game thread (Day 1)

Postby Parabellum » 06 Mar 2018, 01:41

kimbyrle wrote:
Parabellum wrote:Ok. I want to reread some parts of that thing Kim linked to, but here's the important part:

Town strategy?

Option 1 – lynch today – largely based on opening day garbage, highly likely go to 3:2. Then try to lynch right on day 2 with only one day of garbage lynch data to work on. Meanwhile, totally ignore the mechanics as a trick. So that’s our game? A Vanilla game with possibly only 2 lynches before loss? Very unattractive! And persuading you this is the town’s best option and shutting down any meaningful strategy dialogue with which – in turn - to generate meaningful scum-hunting thread data feels like a scum wet dream to me…

Option 2 – no lynch today. Go to 4:2. You must then no lynch day 2 as well. Go to 3:2 and have 3 nights of investigative data to layer on top of in-thread ‘guts’ and use that to make the ‘key’ lynch.

Which gives you better odds of spotting scum at the key 3:2 moment? Well, debating that should at least give you more data to play with either way.


So what do we think about no lynch?

We don't have that option now. It was changed for the 12p version.


Ugh, crap. I'm going to reread the rules.
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Re: Mafia CLXX: Internal Affairs 2.0 Game thread (Day 1)

Postby ExiledAtHome » 06 Mar 2018, 02:02

Good to see Little Miss Townie not only striking her townie chords, but also pretty much arriving at the same headspace as me.
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Re: Mafia CLXX: Internal Affairs 2.0 Game thread (Day 1)

Postby Parabellum » 06 Mar 2018, 02:06

Ok, so here's another key part of wyse's post from the old game:

Town should co-ordinate its investigations…

Especially if following option 2 for town strategy!

So tonight you have a few choices:

a) Everyone investigate bkbkbk
That gives some handle on my role since one investigation is all you are going to get from me

b) Everyone but JeanPhi and Numa investigate sjg11 and they investigate HPW
That gives you a full picture on sjg11 (save my investigation) and half way to HPW

c) Anything else you care to construct

The point being by the time of the crucial 3:2 lynch you maximise the completeness of the night data you have. You cannot break the game and so it is always wise as town not to over-focus on the night game. In thread reads are still boss, but you will have several competing hypotheses to work with as to who is what cop based on different alignment combinations for the remaining live players. Add that to in-thread and you have a chance of a decent lynch. That said, all town must be active and working this shit out. Mafia will be killing anyone capable of thought, workload or posting more than one sentence once every game day.

Note by the way that we already know that 3 folks cannot be the paranoid cop and 3 cannot be the naïve cop. Then an elimination process kicks in – layering in assumptions – then changing your model and layering in different assumptions - you can work some stuff out…

The town has a doctor…sort of

Whoever you co-ordinate to investigate – if they are town – the mafia are highly motivated not to night kill as that maximises the clarity of town data.

Choose wisely…

Why is no townie talking about this shit? What townie would you expect to have the IQ to talk about this shit but isn’t and instead is presenting option 1 as the only viable approach?

The mafia are lying!

They haven’t investigated anyone. Now it is easy to fake any one of the 5 roles since they know all alignments. However, in a town following this stuff they have to be consistent. They still have flexibility because whatever lie they made up for night 0 still works for more than one role, but shortly they have to ‘fix’ which role they are faking and do so before (perhaps) they know what the duplicate role is. Again, if after 3 nights of data it is looking like we have more than one duplicate role premised on different alignment scenarios you might be able to spot the liar(s).


Note they would therefore (marginally) be motivated to either not reveal today or be late to reveal…


The bolded part was the most convincing to me regarding reveals; forcing scum to lie should provide us with a hook to catch them on.

So that being said, I investigated EAH, and got back Honest.
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Re: Mafia CLXX: Internal Affairs 2.0 Game thread (Day 1)

Postby Parabellum » 06 Mar 2018, 02:07

RedSun wrote:
kimbyrle wrote:
kimbyrle wrote:Yes. Read the strategy post I linked above. We need all our IRs out and on the table because those are where scum will have to lie.

And they don't necessarily know. I got an Honest on Harb, but I could be naive, random, or insane and that result might be wrong. Scum doesn't know our cop type any more than we do.


K I investigate Harb too and I got innocent


Wait is that what your PM said? That Harb was "innocent"?
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Re: Mafia CLXX: Internal Affairs 2.0 Game thread (Day 1)

Postby RedSun » 06 Mar 2018, 02:16

Parabellum wrote:
RedSun wrote:
kimbyrle wrote:And they don't necessarily know. I got an Honest on Harb, but I could be naive, random, or insane and that result might be wrong. Scum doesn't know our cop type any more than we do.


K I investigate Harb too and I got innocent


Wait is that what your PM said? That Harb was "innocent"?


The exact word in my PM was "Honest"

I assumed you'd know innocent meant honest…
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Re: Mafia CLXX: Internal Affairs 2.0 Game thread (Day 1)

Postby Parabellum » 06 Mar 2018, 02:19

RedSun wrote:
Parabellum wrote:
RedSun wrote:
K I investigate Harb too and I got innocent


Wait is that what your PM said? That Harb was "innocent"?


The exact word in my PM was "Honest"

I assumed you'd know innocent meant honest…


I knew what you meant, but to me that kinda looks like you didn't know what our investigation pm's said.
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Re: Mafia CLXX: Internal Affairs 2.0 Game thread (Day 1)

Postby RedSun » 06 Mar 2018, 02:21

Parabellum wrote:
RedSun wrote:
Parabellum wrote:
Wait is that what your PM said? That Harb was "innocent"?


The exact word in my PM was "Honest"

I assumed you'd know innocent meant honest…


I knew what you meant, but to me that kinda looks like you didn't know what our investigation pm's said.


I understand what your getting at but Kim said it before me so I knew what the investigation PM said already even if I was scum.
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Re: Mafia CLXX: Internal Affairs 2.0 Game thread (Day 1)

Postby ExiledAtHome » 06 Mar 2018, 02:22

RS,

Yeah, we obviously could decipher innocent to imply Honest, but if you were saying that you received a PM saying your IR was "Innocent" those who got back PMs saying their IR was "Honest" could reasonably assume you to be lying.

That's why PB was asking for further clarification on the exact wording.

You've said the wording was "Honest" so... NAI for me.
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Re: Mafia CLXX: Internal Affairs 2.0 Game thread (Day 1)

Postby Dwiltse1114 » 06 Mar 2018, 02:23

ExiledAtHome wrote:
Parabellum wrote:Hi guys! Super excited to play again, after sitting out wrestling mafia (which was awesome to watch - y'all are so creative!).

I'm kind of confused on the reveals thing - should we be giving up all that info right off the bat? Since we have no idea who is right and who is wrong, it seems like it might help mafia more (since they already know alignment).


Typically, yeah I'd be a little cautious about InfoSec concerns, but we have several players in this game who are reliable cops, and that's a huge asset if we can ever determine who they are. And we can't determine who is reliable without reveals and cross referencing data.

The alternative is just to ignore the cop roles altogether and play vanilla, but that seems a major waste of a potential powerful tool. Have you read the original version of this game that Wyse linked to?


im in agreeence to sharing our nightly investigations however the bolded portion helps the town sure but it also means scum most likely have found out who the reliable cops are as well if we have found out...
I'm me I'm odd learn to deal with it... all geniuses' are crazy...
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