Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread Game Over - Mafia Victory!

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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Crunkus_old » 09 Jan 2017, 00:35

/me begins stomping his foot impatiently while glaring at Keirador.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 09 Jan 2017, 00:39

Telleo wanted to know why I gave an early town lean to SF's single post
viewtopic.php?f=306&t=54506&p=888068#p888068

shadowfriend1 wrote:Woah, sorry I'm late. I guess I shouldn't sleep in the future if I want to participate in the early game :P
Thoughts while catching up:

mhsmith0 wrote:shadowfriend1
randed wolf again. sorry sf :(

Not today my friend :D :D :D :D :D

That was the main part. It's basically what I expected from town!SF in that situation. Is it conceivable that scum!SF designed her opening around what her town meta would suggest? Sure. But it's tonally different from her scum opening last game, and I'm willing to roll with a tonal read there, especially given that it was early D1.

I also thought her questions in the rest of the post were fine, and seemingly indicative of useful thinking on her end.

Enough for any kind of lock read? No. Enough to give her some town points? Yes.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Crunkus_old » 09 Jan 2017, 00:46

mhsmith0 wrote:Telleo wanted to know why I gave an early town lean to SF's single post
viewtopic.php?f=306&t=54506&p=888068#p888068

shadowfriend1 wrote:Woah, sorry I'm late. I guess I shouldn't sleep in the future if I want to participate in the early game :P
Thoughts while catching up:

mhsmith0 wrote:shadowfriend1
randed wolf again. sorry sf :(

Not today my friend :D :D :D :D :D

That was the main part. It's basically what I expected from town!SF in that situation. Is it conceivable that scum!SF designed her opening around what her town meta would suggest? Sure. But it's tonally different from her scum opening last game, and I'm willing to roll with a tonal read there, especially given that it was early D1.

I also thought her questions in the rest of the post were fine, and seemingly indicative of useful thinking on her end.

Enough for any kind of lock read? No. Enough to give her some town points? Yes.


Why does she need to literally "design her opening around what her town meta would suggest" if she's scum to explain that post?

I'm not much of fan of this analysis even if I understood the vague meta basis of it. Why did you think Telleo would be able to appreciate that given its meta basis when you asked her?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby Crunkus_old » 09 Jan 2017, 00:48

not indicative of anything...but enough to earn "town points"?

So the points really aren't worth anything, they are just a way of quantifying something that's essentially just either a post advertising you as possessed of scumhunting process, or of poorly explained intuition.

Normal mafia basically. Got it.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby sjg11 » 09 Jan 2017, 00:49

sjg11 wrote:Ok I got through that faster than I was expecting. In all honesty I prefer Telleo's plan to smith's. By quite a considerable distance. Although bear in mind that this is an "Sjg Seal of Approval" surrounding mechanics. Which makes it pretty much worthless.

Anyway, smith this is the big issue with your plan in my view. If the Mafia know our numbers... then what's stopping them from doing this on Night 1:

We all target the player who is second in the lynch with a "Push" order. Everyone gets their target number pulled across by the same amount yeah?

So if there are at least 2 Townies on -5/-4 at this point then it's incredibly easy for the Mafia to GET TWO NIGHT KILLS tonight. Even if the values given to the Mafia are on the lower end of the spectrum.

Moreover, we can't even figure out who lied because the dead players can't say "I got less value than I should have done" because they're dead and the Mafia know their own values so they're not going to have trouble figuring that out.

Meanwhile with Telleo's plan any Mafia night kill is a big risk because they know there's a strong chance of getting caught/confirming players as town every time they move in for a night kill because we can then see what went wrong during the night and deal with it. Plus it generally puts players closer to 0 than your plan does which I regard as a town positive in regards to making it even harder for the Mafia to night kill people.

So yeah I like Telleo's plan currently. It seems to hold people accountable for stuff which is good.

Smith, this is why I preferred Telleo's plan to your "vig shot" plan. I still maintain my position on this one.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 09 Jan 2017, 00:50

Telleo wrote:
shadowfriend1 wrote:
Telleo wrote:SF:
Uh, yeah, if you haven't noticed I've been planning for that contingency extensively. But I will not get distracted from lynching Happymeal - that's exactly what his buddy would want us to do now./EndSF


Err... have you? I haven't seen it. Who else have you been pushing on? What contingencies are you preparing, scum-hunting wise?

You want me to scumhunt under the assumption that Happymeal is town in preparation for Day 2 when I am almost certain he is scum? No. That's an awful use of time.


Shadowfriend1. You do not get to be lazy and not scumhunt, no matter how sure you are that HM is scum. If he is, then start looking for his teammate. If he isn't then start looking for the next lead.


I don't particularly like this vote by the way. SF's logic of not getting distracted from happymeal seems perfectly fine, and her point about planning for a contingency doesn't seem suspicious at all to me. Telleo seems to be twisting this into SF making excuses for not scum-hunting, but I don't actually see SF being in that paradigm. Among other things, she's had an extensive back and forth with jordan that looks like scum-hunting to me. It's also odd that Telleo threw down that vote citing that specific quotation
viewtopic.php?f=306&t=54506&start=340#p888380
only after multiple back and forth points with SF, including a discussion on crunkus where I don't think SF's perspective seemed suspicious or ill thought out
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby sjg11 » 09 Jan 2017, 00:50

And that's me done for the night, I'll return tomorrow.
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby mhsmith0 » 09 Jan 2017, 00:54

@crunkus: I was curious whether telleo could come up with a point of reasoning for it, or would even be motivated to try. Given that her main focus has been on mechanics, I was wondering if she'd be able to try and think through what my thought process might have been.

It also WAS indicative of town. Fakable? Maybe.. but likelier just actual town. It also is consistent with what town!SF would post, and not consistent with my understanding of normal scum!SF posting, which means that it was an UNNATURAL post for her scum game, which means that if it was scum-posting, then it was something intentionally crafted in order to mimic her town tone, something which IIRC she showed no particular inclination for in our very last game. Possible? Sure. LIKELY? Not especially.

@sjg: that's why I modified my vig shot plan so that instead of everyone pushing the vig shot, now it's unknown if it's a push or pull. Therefore it's no longer a turkey shoot. Given that modification, why do you think that its still easy for scum?

PS going to dinner, back in an hour or two
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby shadowface » 09 Jan 2017, 01:09

mhsmith0 wrote:And I'm VERY much in favor of the "vig shot" idea if we do NOT lynch scum (which seems unlikely but is obviously not lock certain). If we mislynch, then under the telleo plan, scum potentially have the ability to cause TWO deaths, without necessarily having a clear and obvious way to catch them in the act (depending on who has what numbers, opportunities for confusion could exist, and dropping down to 5v2 and possible MYLO with a bunch of competing claims doesn't seem especially pleasant).

I really like this plan.

sjg11 wrote:
sjg11 wrote:Ok I got through that faster than I was expecting. In all honesty I prefer Telleo's plan to smith's. By quite a considerable distance. Although bear in mind that this is an "Sjg Seal of Approval" surrounding mechanics. Which makes it pretty much worthless.

Anyway, smith this is the big issue with your plan in my view. If the Mafia know our numbers... then what's stopping them from doing this on Night 1:

We all target the player who is second in the lynch with a "Push" order. Everyone gets their target number pulled across by the same amount yeah?

So if there are at least 2 Townies on -5/-4 at this point then it's incredibly easy for the Mafia to GET TWO NIGHT KILLS tonight. Even if the values given to the Mafia are on the lower end of the spectrum.

Moreover, we can't even figure out who lied because the dead players can't say "I got less value than I should have done" because they're dead and the Mafia know their own values so they're not going to have trouble figuring that out.

Meanwhile with Telleo's plan any Mafia night kill is a big risk because they know there's a strong chance of getting caught/confirming players as town every time they move in for a night kill because we can then see what went wrong during the night and deal with it. Plus it generally puts players closer to 0 than your plan does which I regard as a town positive in regards to making it even harder for the Mafia to night kill people.

So yeah I like Telleo's plan currently. It seems to hold people accountable for stuff which is good.

Smith, this is why I preferred Telleo's plan to your "vig shot" plan. I still maintain my position on this one.


The difference between the plan you quoted, sjg, and smith's plan is that by smith's plan, we target the town's vig choice with random pushes or pulls. The plan you quoted was all pushes, which I agree is not a good idea. But the whole point of random pushes or pulls is that the mafia won't know whether or not any individual player has a push or pull be applied against them from the equal and opposite force. Thus, they'll have to take a 50/50 guess as to whether they get it right, which means with one scum left tonight we should expect 0.5 dead townies + possibly the vig target. And killing the vig target is probably beneficial for the town anyways, like a 2nd lynch. So that's 0.5 dead townies and a democratic vig kill. This is the best plan we've seen yet.

If we lynch town today, that's an average of 1.0 dead townies + possibly the vig target. Seems pretty similar to what random targeting might get us, depending on whether or not you think the town vig kill is positive. If we have a good case on the target, I think it is, but if we'd be choosing this target more at random it might be worse for the town (because we'd get 2 dead townies instead of 1.148 by random targeting).

Thoughts anyone?
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Re: Push and Pull Mafia Game Thread

Postby condude1 » 09 Jan 2017, 01:14

There are approximately 46 hours remaining in the day.

The current vote count is:

Happymeal (7): Crunkus, dodgy56, Harb, Jordan767, mhsmith0, shadowfriend1, sjg11
mhsmith0 (1): Happymeal
shadowfriend1 (1): Telleo

Continue posting!
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