Mafia CXXXVII: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread Town Victory!

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Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Crunkus_old » 27 Feb 2015, 05:20

Alright, I'm not going to lie. That feels good.
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Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Crunkus_old » 27 Feb 2015, 05:23

Crunkus wrote:
Ugluk wrote:Scratch that. dwiltseredu

If he's town, he's dead weight, and we aren't going to get anything out him for the rest of the game. If he lives long enough to sub out, I'm done with the game, regardless. Yes, condude, I'm serious. You can try running it again at a later time. Shit happens. I had to call one game of Resistance early.

Ugluk is town.


Hurm.
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Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Crunkus_old » 27 Feb 2015, 05:24

sf, you're always reading, seldom posting. Don't be a stranger. Did you need to me to repost those questions again?
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Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby shadowface » 27 Feb 2015, 05:27

Wow again. The town's managed to kill half the mafia without even getting blood on our hands. :D
Sorry I was absent for most of today, heavy homework load. I'll post as I read with the hindsight of dwilt's faction.

Ugluk wrote:
Crunkus wrote:You can discuss the likelihood of one or more of the 4 off votes being scum. We know Harb was on and was scum. The odds seem good that we have a 1/4 on the off votes.
sjg11 wrote:Good but not good enough for me to stake too much on that assumption.


It's fun to speculate on, but I don't see what good it does. Let's say the odds are 75% that one in four is mafia. One of those four is now dead, so .. we have a 1/3 chance of randomly killing a mafia-aligned player 3/4 times. That's 3/12. There are 3 mafia and 8 town remaining, which is 3/11. So a "truly random" murder has better odds .. unless we adjust our assumption of that 75% to make us feel more confident in a random murder of the one-in-three. The one-in-three that didn't lynch a townie.

Of course, you're going to use some logical magic to narrow that pool down to the right mafia. But now you're ignoring the other two mafia to find the one mafia you hope is in the pool.

I think there are more constructive applications of our combined logic.

As much as I don't like tantrums, I'm going to notdwiltseredu.

Obviously this isn't a good thing Ugluk. ;) Why exactly did you post this? I mean, the rest of the post wasn't related to the dwilt lynch if I'm not mistaken.

As for the likelyhood of the last scum being off the vote, I'm going to say he was likely on the vote. I can't see two mafia being off the only real lynch candidate from yesterday.
As for the aspirant, I don't really see any way to bring him into the equation. I don't think we can refer to four scum here, as the aspirant is playing completely separately from the mafia. I mean, not only would the aspirant not know if he's lynching the right person, but he can't coordinate with the mafia.
~sf1 8-)
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Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Crunkus_old » 27 Feb 2015, 05:28

shadowfriend1 wrote:
sjg11 wrote:Still not totally convinced by the Numberwang wagon. The point that convinces me most is the lack of scumhunting from him. But have I seen new town players panic in a conversation with Crunkus before and start having a hissy fit? Yes. Have I seen those same players become so distracted with defending themselves that they don't hunt scum as much as I would like them to when having a dialogue with Crunkus? Yes.

+1
Do you notice both of the lynch candidates are newer players? Could be a coincidence, sure, but this explanation fits.
Welcome, Isstot!
~sf1 8-)



So shadowfriend. You haven't been troubled lately by these kind of thoughts, eh?

Don't read anything into me beginning to backread you. Just get back to those questions you skipped earlier.
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Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 1)

Postby Crunkus_old » 27 Feb 2015, 05:31

shadowfriend1 wrote:To the substitutes:
My top reads atm are BS, followed by Keirador, followed by shirt and Izzmund.
~sf1 8-)


Damn that's a lot of reads.
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Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Crunkus_old » 27 Feb 2015, 05:33

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Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby shadowface » 27 Feb 2015, 05:34

I just wanted to understand your case on him, I wasn't trying to accuse you of anything.
Crunkus wrote:
shadowfriend1 wrote:
Yesterday I thought dwilt was a bit nuts, but I didn't push for a lynch because I was under the impression you and others said this behavior was not particularly scum-indicitive. Now you are lynching him. Did this change in opinion come from vote data? From reviewing his play in RPSLS and comparing it to today? If so, why did you not consider doing this yesterday?


Are you asking because I've been unclear as to why I'm voting for dwilt? This seems a rather strange question to ask. Can you see why someone might think so?

I was really wondering why you are voting for him. This issue seems sort of irrelevant now, but here is a rational I wrote last night and saved but never got around to posting:
I don't know why this is a strange question, but based on your comments since then I assume you take issue with his completely unfounded cases, and the fact that this behavior is not typical of his previous play. I realize he is a difficult (impossible actually) player, but I just wanted to make sure this is scum indicative. I mean, some people are just annoying.
You were right. Kudos to you for spotting this! Maybe you can explain your method in the AAR if you don't want to waste time in game, because I was and still am sort of curious how you could tell his play apart from simply a reckless noobie townie. I mean, I know I would definitely not gone for that approach as mafia.That's the only thing that dwilt had going for him IMO: his play was so bad, I couldn't see a mafia throwing a game like that.
~sf1 8-)
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Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Crunkus_old » 27 Feb 2015, 05:34

SF, what was your faction in The Estate?
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Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Crunkus_old » 27 Feb 2015, 05:40

shadowfriend1 wrote:I just wanted to understand your case on him, I wasn't trying to accuse you of anything.


I never said or implied you were. I asked you why you wanted to understand what was abundantly already clear. You asked what my change of opinion came from, you asked me if it was from vote data or from reviewing his play. Then you asked me why I didn't consider doing this yesterday.

It seems odd, because you already knew why I was voting for him, because I said so. Are you saying that wasn't clear to you already when you asked the question?

I don't understand why you are asking questions you know the answer to. Is it because you wanted to know the answer to the question?

You clearly read the part where I said I should have looked over this sort of thing yesterday...so you read it, and understood it. You took the opportunity to ask me why I didn't. Is that also you trying to understand my case on him? I don't get it.


Crunkus wrote:
shadowfriend1 wrote:
Yesterday I thought dwilt was a bit nuts, but I didn't push for a lynch because I was under the impression you and others said this behavior was not particularly scum-indicitive. Now you are lynching him. Did this change in opinion come from vote data? From reviewing his play in RPSLS and comparing it to today? If so, why did you not consider doing this yesterday?


Are you asking because I've been unclear as to why I'm voting for dwilt? This seems a rather strange question to ask. Can you see why someone might think so?

I was really wondering why you are voting for him. This issue seems sort of irrelevant now, but here is a rational I wrote last night and saved but never got around to posting:
I don't know why this is a strange question, but based on your comments since then I assume you take issue with his completely unfounded cases, and the fact that this behavior is not typical of his previous play. I realize he is a difficult (impossible actually) player, but I just wanted to make sure this is scum indicative. I mean, some people are just annoying.
You were right. Kudos to you for spotting this! Maybe you can explain your method in the AAR if you don't want to waste time in game, because I was and still am sort of curious how you could tell his play apart from simply a reckless noobie townie. I mean, I know I would definitely not gone for that approach as mafia.That's the only thing that dwilt had going for him IMO: his play was so bad, I couldn't see a mafia throwing a game like that.
~sf1 8-)[/quote]
[/quote]

Have you been reading this thread?

Are you pushing your noob card a little bit hard right now?
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