Mafia CXXXVII: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread Town Victory!

Moderators: Zoomzip, Telleo, bkbkbk, condude1, sjg11

Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 1)

Postby condude1 » 25 Feb 2015, 21:26

You all get up in the morning, swearing you heard gunfire last night. Alas, upon reaching the town square, you find mayor Condude standing over the corpse of Harb. Strangely, he seems to be smiling.

"What do they call this, red on red? My guards heard a shot coming from Harb's house. They found his corpse. However, they also found a contract, by someone calling themselves 'Number one', ordering him to kill me. It seems the mafia had a... micommunication."

Harb died last night, he was a mafia jailor. Every night, he could block all effects but the kill from a target.

Day two will end February 28, 2015, at 11:00 AM PST.
Telleo wrote:I don't think I've ever met someone who more perfectly embodied Chaotic Neutral than Condude1.


Moderator of the Mafia Subforums!

Silver member of The Classicists!
User avatar
condude1
 
Posts: 8161
Joined: 06 Feb 2013, 03:41
Location: Vancouver, BC, Canada
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: (1368)
All-game rating: (1307)
Timezone: GMT-8

Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby dwiltseredu » 25 Feb 2015, 22:06

first off i want to lean in and say HAHAHA my gut was right in BS being sad... that said i am also very surprised harb turned up scum and the luck that we got that the aspirants first kill was to doom a member of his own faction!!!

but i atleast hope from this point the town actually does a better job at scum hunting and not just follow silly illogical nonsense from this point forth...
User avatar
dwiltseredu
 
Posts: 601
Joined: 29 Sep 2014, 21:16
Class: Diplomat
Standard rating: (1118)
All-game rating: (1119)
Timezone: GMT

Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby dwiltseredu » 25 Feb 2015, 22:10

essentially we were lucky the aspirant evened out our crappy day play and i do mean flat out lucky... as if he would have killed another town we would have already been at a huge disadvantage as the score would have been 7 town then and 4 mafia... atleast now we have 8 town 3 mafia... so we still got good odds...

this also means we have a good number of mislynches but i would really prefer not to mislynch for the next 2 days at all i would prefer to actually you know find the scum (who i still believe are most likely shirt and crunkus or at the very least one of the two)... that said even if we are set on one particular person expecially if its early we have to examine other possibilitys as well and not just waste our entire day...
User avatar
dwiltseredu
 
Posts: 601
Joined: 29 Sep 2014, 21:16
Class: Diplomat
Standard rating: (1118)
All-game rating: (1119)
Timezone: GMT

Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Crunkus_old » 25 Feb 2015, 22:34

@shadowfiend: Of the people that asked you questions yesterday, how many of them asked what you consider to be good questions?
(sigh)
Crunkus_old
 
Posts: 17650
Joined: 05 Feb 2009, 23:51
Class: Star Ambassador
All-game rating: (944)
Timezone: GMT-5

Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Crunkus_old » 25 Feb 2015, 22:40

@dwils: how many times have you played town on our forum? Can you name the games? I'm looking to do a back read on you.
(sigh)
Crunkus_old
 
Posts: 17650
Joined: 05 Feb 2009, 23:51
Class: Star Ambassador
All-game rating: (944)
Timezone: GMT-5

Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Crunkus_old » 25 Feb 2015, 22:53

Harb on shirt ruminations

Harb's interactions with me, knowing I'm town (I realize to those who don't know that other narratives may make this less clear), suggest that Harb's day one play started with early taking issue with shirt (in a relatively safe environment) and continuing that while comfortably transitioning to BS over time, showing caution...he questioned all the right things in retrospect, and was inactive enough to have the waters tested with my responses for him to appear comfortable with them as well. Safety comes to mind re-reading harb's day one. This suggests the role of shirt with harb could have been several things. He could be simply just working to maintain his earlier presented suspicion of shirt as genuine (shirt is town/aspirant) while essentially not caring much which one went down. Alternatively, it could have been maintained a lot in the latter day to set up a drive on shirt rather than Keirador if a bail from the BS vote materialized toward the end of the day. With essentially shirt and Kierador being the other two contenders, it may be noteworthy to look at who harb preferred or would certainly have pushed for if BS became suddenly less of an option. In that case, Kierador would be looked at in a poor light and shirt in a positive one. Alternatively, harb could have been soft pushing shirt, his buddy while looking for a town alternative to come along and sweep him off his distancing. I don't think it's particularly Harb's style.

I don't care much for shirt/harb team at this point. I'm not sure what else to make of it though. If there was a teammate in the shirt-Kierador-BS dynamic, it was in my view likely Kierador. But that's not to say there was. Limited information.
(sigh)
Crunkus_old
 
Posts: 17650
Joined: 05 Feb 2009, 23:51
Class: Star Ambassador
All-game rating: (944)
Timezone: GMT-5

Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 1)

Postby simblanco » 25 Feb 2015, 23:00

I am going to analysis the vote data soon and the implication of scumHarb. But during the night I prepared some analysis of who I found suspicious during the catching up. Since dwilt is around, let's start with him. Sorry if they look too long or boring to read, but they helped me to understand what was going on.

A brief rundown on Dwilt.
First of all, I second SF's call to Dwilt: please improve your writing style :geek: No offence meant ;) Back to business!

First interaction with townBS asking for a plan, shirt inquires on that. Nothing to report.

Some time spent on the miller reveal issue.

Then he votes Shirt since he mentioned him as nr2 scum read but did not follow up (and a bad case on SF). Dwilt needs attention!

He posts an useless read list, but I agree there are no many things to analyze since many players are still missing. Nothing to report.

He takes some heat from both Shirt and Crunkus for that vote. Dwilt then makes a big rundown on Crunkus. I understand that Crunkus says shirt may be scum, but dwilt's vote on him does not have a good justification.

Dwilt does ask tons of questions around, and he replies to Harb. Is dwilt following up on all that he is asking? Need to check.

Here is sitting way too much on the fence. I quoted this because Ugluk (?) will mention this later. This is still a narrative point, though. TownDwilt can be conflicted (an experience player like Crunkus push a lynch he does not like, so he don't openly criticize it) or ScumDwilt is happy with the mislynch and in D2 will say "told ya!". (and he did first thing today ;) )
dwiltseredu wrote:@crunkus okey I went back and read your case on crunkus and while I will say it does make sense I truely do not believe that he is the best lynch candidate for today...

Either way im aware he will probably get lynched but I wont be on that train because I dont feel like it would be a correct lynch... I am sorry...


A fun interaction about active lurking. Crunkus points out that HE is actively lurking. Dwilt does not think BS or Keirador a correct lynch. He insists on shirt. I like his guts, I have to admit (not gut feeling, the courage. How do you say in English? Damn)

That said when the town lynchs blackswimmer or kier and they turn up as town I want them to seriously look at crunkus and shirt as scum buddies...

@Dwilt: before asking the town to look at them as scum buddies, you should state your own case on that. This is again like when you asked BS for a plan. Start yourself, and ask us to comment on that. That will be a valuable contribution to the town. I see Crunkus criticized you on that. I am not, yet, because I shared and I share the same feeling, but I am not going just to ask around without saying my own opinion before.

Dwilt and Crunkus have some emotional exchange, not the best moment in a game.

So yeah shirt is still the number one lynch and come tomorrow when you two lynch a town with ur scummyness ill point to the rest of the town and ill say "I told you these guys are scum and need to be lynched"...

but i do implore you townies that once blackswimmer or kier do flip town (which again although based on gut) and (the fact that i think the cases built by shirt and crunkus that others have merely copied are crap cases) then at that point i want you to seriously look at both shirt and crunkus because they ARE scum... and it makes sense for reasons i have stated...

@Dwilt Can you explain why a scum team is more probable than one scum and one town? Can you summarize the interactions between the two of them? Have you ever see a town defending a scum? Again, not a critic, but please state your case better.

You cannot convince us because your gut feeling is at least half right. My gut feeling is always half right on tail and cross when I toss a coin 100 times.
dwiltseredu wrote:
Keirador wrote:
Dwilt, if one (or both) of us is lynched, and one (or both) of us turn up scum, how does that affect your "gut" reads?


it doesnt my gut is generally always atleast half right...

in that sense either both of you are scum and both crunkus and shirt are town (unlikely)...

one of you are scum and the other town and one of shirt or crunkus is scum and the other town (most probable but i still believe unlikely)...

and finally both you and BS are town and both crunkus and shirt are scum (what i view as the most likely)...


ALL IN ALL. When I was catching up Dwilt look suspicious, but now I can see better where he is coming from. I don't see any alignment evidence. He seems a stubborn town, so stubborn that he was right on BS. But scumDwilt would be right as well. Anyway, I don't see anything scummy here. I am correcting my brief catching up list and I'll reread Izz and Keirador ASAP, the other two suspicious players that caught my attention while catching up.

@DWILT:
1) If you want to insist on shirt, please refine your case. We cannot lynch people just because they are (in your opinion) promoting a mislynch. Have you ever seen a town promoting a stubborn mislynch? If shirt is town shall we lynch you straight away? And yes, I read your case, but I agree on Crunkus here that is based on too few points.
2) I appreciate your interactions with Crunkus and that you defend your opinions. Still, your opinions should to be based on a nice thought process. Now that Harb flipped town, how would you (if you want to) prepare a case on the scumteam scumCrunkus and scumShirt?
Silver member of the Classicist
User avatar
simblanco
 
Posts: 651
Joined: 21 Jul 2013, 10:08
Location: Beyond the Wall
Class: Star Ambassador
Standard rating: (1256)
All-game rating: (1353)
Timezone: GMT

Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Keirador » 25 Feb 2015, 23:01

@ Crunkus: why are you ruminating on Harb's interactions with shirt specifically and exclusively, just to rule him out? Clearly something about shirt stood out to you enough to single him out for interacting with scum.
Did you know there’s a faceless old woman who secretly lives in your home? It’s true. She’s there now. She’s always there, just out of your sight. Always just out of your sight.
User avatar
Keirador
 
Posts: 11217
Joined: 01 Dec 2008, 21:36
Location: Living secretly in the home of every single resident of Night Vale
Class: Ambassador
Standard rating: (1132)
All-game rating: (1133)
Timezone: GMT-5

Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Crunkus_old » 25 Feb 2015, 23:02

Worth Reviewing:

  • eggs as towns in other games look for obvious differences
  • egg interactions with Harb.

Q to dwils, sf1: Have you approached this game differently than you have in the past for any reason that you can think of?
(sigh)
Crunkus_old
 
Posts: 17650
Joined: 05 Feb 2009, 23:51
Class: Star Ambassador
All-game rating: (944)
Timezone: GMT-5

Re: A Shot in the Dark Game Thread (Day 2)

Postby Keirador » 25 Feb 2015, 23:02

Also Crunk, do you have no thoughts on where the Blackswimmer lynch went wrong?
Did you know there’s a faceless old woman who secretly lives in your home? It’s true. She’s there now. She’s always there, just out of your sight. Always just out of your sight.
User avatar
Keirador
 
Posts: 11217
Joined: 01 Dec 2008, 21:36
Location: Living secretly in the home of every single resident of Night Vale
Class: Ambassador
Standard rating: (1132)
All-game rating: (1133)
Timezone: GMT-5

PreviousNext

Return to Game Threads

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 22 guests