Mafia Invitational XX: WIFOMafia: GAME OVER (Mafia win)

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Re: WIFOMafia Invitational Game Thread: Day One

Postby LOLSHOCK » 15 Jan 2014, 00:26

Crunkus: if these aren't legitimate problems can you explain why to me? I'm having trouble working it out for myself what your argument is, I expect you are being deliberately vague but I'm a bit stuck.

- His read on me. He is attempting to claim that my rules mistake was more plausible as scum than as town and he hasn't offered any explanation for this. I believe he earlier called it equally plausible (or some variant of that) and has now changed tack.
- (This is something I've just noticed) He starts off one of his posts being very moderate saying "scum almost always split their votes day 1" but then by the end of his post he reaches the conclusion "Mafia don't have the guts to vote all the same day 1". This seems like a pretty clear contradiction to me, it suggests to me that he's making things up as he goes along to try and reduce suspicion on him.
- He is weirdly insistent upon the fact that my rules mistake isn't town readable despite no-one arguing with him over it.
- Seems to know that Ironhammer is town. He's already setting up to do vote analysis on the basis that he'll flip town for no other reason than a bandwagon built up on him.
- The way he picked out there being 2 scum on Ironhammer and is basing his analysis on this suggests a non-town process to me. As scum he looks at it from the stats and doesn't think about it from an actual town perspective (i.e: the scum are not going to just fit nicely into his model as they don't want to get caught easily)
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Re: WIFOMafia Invitational Game Thread: Day One

Postby Crunkus » 15 Jan 2014, 00:27

Phatality wrote:1. I see that and I am trying to explain it. Yes I am trying to make myself understood. Am I speaking complete nonsense (if yes, what specifically makes no sense and why?) or do you not see my point in all this?


Is it ridiculous to you that I'm suggesting that if something reminds you of something else and I'm asking a question about it, that fully explaining what specifically reminded you of what would be appropriate if you're trying to be understood? I've made it clear about what I don't understand. I've suggested what you could do to remedy that.

Phatality wrote:I think it's the latter and the point of all this was to disagree with thewyse on his perspective on JS which I did via reference to your response to thewyse's points against Swaim. The point I disagreed with you on was minor and I misunderstood it (on who thinks what about alignment). So this has more to do with thewyse on Swaim rather than you on thewyse which I realize now wasn't clear.


I'm not asking you the question because I think you disagree with me. I'm asking you the question because I don't understand what you mean by something specific that you are talking about. If you could go back and try to unpack that a bit more for more it would be appreciated.

Phatality wrote:2. Yes and I can expand on the ILI connection if that's what you're getting at.


Why do I have to be getting at anything? I think I was really rather straight forward with you. Maybe go back and read what I said again?

Phatality wrote: Swaim is being agreeable and spending a lot of time justifying himself, and I understand the criticism coming from thewyse in the failure to scumhunt outside of LOL, however I don't see this as intentional. I chalk it up to inexperience.


Why is being agreeable a sign of inexperience? Why do you read it the way you read it?

Phatality wrote:3. I agree with you. That post wasn't a criticism of your thoughts on TWC, I too think TWC should reevaluate his position on Swaim. I could and should have formatted the original post better and directed it more at thewyse because those were my intentions.


Is it your lack of experience that is causing you to be so agreeable right now? I'm asking what you meant by something you said. I don't understand why you are telling me you aren't disagreeing with me generally speaking, unless your implying I should therefore be satisfied not understanding what you meant.
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Re: WIFOMafia Invitational Game Thread: Day One

Postby Crunkus » 15 Jan 2014, 00:40

LOLSHOCK wrote:Crunkus: if these aren't legitimate problems can you explain why to me? I'm having trouble working it out for myself what your argument is, I expect you are being deliberately vague but I'm a bit stuck.


You seem pretty sure about connect4. I'm sure most of my concerns will be addressed as you pursue his lynch today. I await your imminent crusade with interest.

LOLSHOCK wrote:- His read on me. He is attempting to claim that my rules mistake was more plausible as scum than as town and he hasn't offered any explanation for this. I believe he earlier called it equally plausible (or some variant of that) and has now changed tack.


Perhaps I have less trouble with this since I also have a bit of a concern about you at the moment that I'm working through.

I've spoken about some of your earlier comments on this subject in a previous message. It would be super helpful if you could address those directly.

LOLSHOCK wrote:- (This is something I've just noticed) He starts off one of his posts being very moderate saying "scum almost always split their votes day 1" but then by the end of his post he reaches the conclusion "Mafia don't have the guts to vote all the same day 1". This seems like a pretty clear contradiction to me, it suggests to me that he's making things up as he goes along to try and reduce suspicion on him.


Can you explain how those two statements contradict each other? They are both generally descriptive of what happens on day one. They in no way contradict each other. Also, how is this the only conclusion you can reach from this? This is what you're so sure about? This is utter weaksauce.

LOLSHOCK wrote:- He is weirdly insistent upon the fact that my rules mistake isn't town readable despite no-one arguing with him over it.


Can you show me what specifically you are talking about here?

LOLSHOCK wrote:- Seems to know that Ironhammer is town. He's already setting up to do vote analysis on the basis that he'll flip town for no other reason than a bandwagon built up on him.


Again, he explained the context of his comments. There is a bandwagon currently on him, and a lot of the votes stink to me as well. Connect4 is talking sense. We should be skeptical of this lynch. You're characterization that this reveals scum-like assurance that Ironhammer is town is an unwarranted exaggeration from where I'm sitting. Again, I'm failing to appreciate how you have become this certain about connect4.

LOLSHOCK wrote:- The way he picked out there being 2 scum on Ironhammer and is basing his analysis on this suggests a non-town process to me. As scum he looks at it from the stats and doesn't think about it from an actual town perspective (i.e: the scum are not going to just fit nicely into his model as they don't want to get caught easily)


You love talking about "suggests a non-town process to me". Except you don't explain that at all. There's nothing particularly controversial about stating that assuming an early bandwagon on a townie, there is going to be 1-2 scum on it day one. There just isn't. It's a matter of fucking history.

I'm sitting here nodding, you're more certain than you've ever been for some reason that the only way he could be making these perfectly sensible points is that he's scum.

Doesn't exactly impress me. By the way, I would love your opinion on some of the things I'm discussing with other people right now.
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Re: WIFOMafia Invitational Game Thread: Day One

Postby Crunkus » 15 Jan 2014, 00:43

@ jonathon Swain: Please feel free to comment on any of the issues not directly involving you that are being actively discussed.
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Re: WIFOMafia Invitational Game Thread: Day One

Postby Crunkus » 15 Jan 2014, 00:50

sjg11 wrote:As it is there's no point even trying to pursue him now, he has his excuse and he will use it unless he's an extremely stupid scum. If Ironhammer does turn out to be scum now I will not be a happy sjg in the AAR.


Again, it's an uninteresting topic to me as I find his lack of frankness plausible either way. I can't get people to talk about this aspect of the problem to save my life apparently. I really would rather move participation to another field of play. This is a terrible basis to lynch someone today. I'm willing to assume as scum or as town he was misrepresenting his process and understanding of the issue. I simply want to move on, make it abundantly clear that this will not be acceptable for the rest of the game, and get him, you, and a bunch of other people talking about more interesting topics.

There's nothing that I've ruined here by my play. This is crap. As scum, we shouldn't be lynching him on this basis either. We'd just be getting lucky. If you find male DNA at the crime scene, and the suspect is male, and you arrest and convict him on that evidence and he happens to be guilty...it doesn't mean the basis for the conviction was a good one.

Please answer the following question:
Do you believe others voting for Ironhammer for similar reasons as you were previously voting for Ironhammer should follow your example given what you now believe on the subject and unvote as well?
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Re: WIFOMafia Invitational Game Thread: Day One

Postby Crunkus » 15 Jan 2014, 00:59

Phatality wrote:So Ironhammer was off-track for a good amount of time on a big issue, I think we can all agree on that. I don't disagree that it'd be easiest to park a vote on Ironhammer and I see this as problematic for people to slide votes in, but that's not enough to dissuade my own vote.


So basically, you see what I'm saying but you aren't interested in talking about it, and you'll be parking your vote here because you can't see the possibility that a townie would be "off-track for a good amount of time on a big issue" which is the basis for your current vote on him? I'm not sure what the harm in discussing this issue is with the time we have remaining in the day. Did you have something else you'd rather be doing with your time?

Phatality wrote:
Crunkus wrote:I think Ironhammer needs to get real, very quickly, because I fully grok why notes of insincerity are ringing. I tend to suspect hammer is indeed misrepresenting his process, but the entire thing seems to be plausibly explained as town.

I agree on point 1, I agree on point 2, and I'm interested in hearing more on point 3.


*vomit*

This is non-engagement, Phatality. I'm not impressed. Seems to me you may be waiting to see if this goes anywhere.

Phatality wrote:I admit I don't have a surefire smoking gun, I have suspicions that make Ironhammer my #1. I would like to hear more about who you think and why that particular person is more suspicious.


I'm not sure why that's relevant to this issue. Either the basis of the ironhammer argument has legs or it doesn't. If there's a common and plausible explanation for what has transpired that doesn't end in Ironhammer being scum, then we have a glorified non-readable moment that has turned into a 3-ring circus that, if Ironhammer is actually town, likely means that 1-2 of the people on the bandwagon are scum fanning the flames of this proto-typical bad first day lynch.

Phatality wrote:I would also like to hear more people talk about Niakan, who is my #2. Niakan's vote on Ironhammer was thrown before most, and nobody else has questioned the earlier votes on IH since the tide against Ironhammer has risen with the exception of Crunkus on Sjg's vote.


Bullshit. You parroted your Niakan comment right after my post referencing it.

How are you simultaneously #2ing Niakan for quietly turning the tide on Ironhammer....your #1 scum read?

Explain that to me like I'm 5.
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Re: WIFOMafia Invitational Game Thread: Day One

Postby LOLSHOCK » 15 Jan 2014, 01:02

Crunkus wrote:
LOLSHOCK wrote:Crunkus: if these aren't legitimate problems can you explain why to me? I'm having trouble working it out for myself what your argument is, I expect you are being deliberately vague but I'm a bit stuck.


You seem pretty sure about connect4. I'm sure most of my concerns will be addressed as you pursue his lynch today. I await your imminent crusade with interest.

LOLSHOCK wrote:- His read on me. He is attempting to claim that my rules mistake was more plausible as scum than as town and he hasn't offered any explanation for this. I believe he earlier called it equally plausible (or some variant of that) and has now changed tack.


Perhaps I have less trouble with this since I also have a bit of a concern about you at the moment that I'm working through.

I've spoken about some of your earlier comments on this subject in a previous message. It would be super helpful if you could address those directly.


I don't see the relevance of your first sentence here, what does the fact that you have a concern about me have to do with the fact that he can't/won't explain his position?

May have time tonight, if not tomorrow to read through more thouroughly.

LOLSHOCK wrote:- (This is something I've just noticed) He starts off one of his posts being very moderate saying "scum almost always split their votes day 1" but then by the end of his post he reaches the conclusion "Mafia don't have the guts to vote all the same day 1". This seems like a pretty clear contradiction to me, it suggests to me that he's making things up as he goes along to try and reduce suspicion on him.


Can you explain how those two statements contradict each other? They are both generally descriptive of what happens on day one. They in no way contradict each other. Also, how is this the only conclusion you can reach from this? This is what you're so sure about? This is utter weaksauce.


One is a tendency the other is a rule. I suppose it's not a contradiction, until I think of the word for it I'm going to have to leave that as "doesn't sit right with me". Admitedly that was a pretty quick conclusion which I hadn't thought through too much, I'll give it some more thought when I've got more time on my hands.

LOLSHOCK wrote:- He is weirdly insistent upon the fact that my rules mistake isn't town readable despite no-one arguing with him over it.


Can you show me what specifically you are talking about here?


Tomorrow hopefully, simply put he posted basically the exact same piece of logic twice saying that it couldn't be a town read.

LOLSHOCK wrote:- Seems to know that Ironhammer is town. He's already setting up to do vote analysis on the basis that he'll flip town for no other reason than a bandwagon built up on him.


Again, he explained the context of his comments. There is a bandwagon currently on him, and a lot of the votes stink to me as well. Connect4 is talking sense. We should be skeptical of this lynch. You're characterization that this reveals scum-like assurance that Ironhammer is town is an unwarranted exaggeration from where I'm sitting. Again, I'm failing to appreciate how you have become this certain about connect4.


At the time I seem to remember that he hadn't done a thourough read of Ironhammer and his justification was "day 1 bandwagons are usually on town".

LOLSHOCK wrote:- The way he picked out there being 2 scum on Ironhammer and is basing his analysis on this suggests a non-town process to me. As scum he looks at it from the stats and doesn't think about it from an actual town perspective (i.e: the scum are not going to just fit nicely into his model as they don't want to get caught easily)


You love talking about "suggests a non-town process to me". Except you don't explain that at all. There's nothing particularly controversial about stating that assuming an early bandwagon on a townie, there is going to be 1-2 scum on it day one. There just isn't. It's a matter of fucking history.

I'm sitting here nodding, you're more certain than you've ever been for some reason that the only way he could be making these perfectly sensible points is that he's scum.

Doesn't exactly impress me. By the way, I would love your opinion on some of the things I'm discussing with other people right now.
[/quote]

The leap in logic is the part that doesn't sit well with me: "there's a bandwagon on Ironhammer, that's evidence of townliness" suddenly makes him start preparing to do a vote analysis on him assuming he flips town with the thought that there are 2 scum on him. He didn't comment on other people's votes and why this particular bandwagon stunk he just jumped straight to what he was going to do when Ironhammer flipped town.

I'll try to spread out my engagement a bit more when I have osme spare time.
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Re: WIFOMafia Invitational Game Thread: Day One

Postby Crunkus » 15 Jan 2014, 01:12

While you are at it LOLSHOCK, when you are characterizing what other people are saying and doing from now on, could you reference the post that you are talking about? Preferably with a quote that illustrates what you mean.

I find a lot of what you are saying rather suspect and the kind of thing that reads a lot better when the referenced text isn't sitting right on top of it.

I find your represented certainty on C4 most disturbing.

Connect4's posts in no way betray some sort of scum knowledge that Ironhammer is town. They outline a valid reason to suspect that he might be. The current basis most people are using to vote for him is incredibly weaksauce, and really in a lot of way disconnected from each other. Hell one person is simultaneously voting for him as a top read and saying they have a #2 that they suspect for quietly turning the tide against Ironhammer.

This is an early bandwagon that shouldn't be happening. The way it is unfolding either suggests the scum have no balls and are already bussing him ridiculously earlier in the game on something that hardly merits it, or that Ironhammer is indeed town.

I'm far more interested in the crap votes on him than him right now, much less connect4 ON THE BASIS that the sensible things he is saying on the subject betray that he is obvscum.
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Re: WIFOMafia Invitational Game Thread: Day One

Postby Phatality » 15 Jan 2014, 01:17

Crunkus wrote:I don't understand what you mean when you say "newbie town motivation" here.

(In regards to Swaim)

This is the issue as I understand it, and I will try to explain it more. I don't know really get what you mean when I should 'unpack' more, and I'm getting confused so I'd like you to be more specific when possible on this issue.

Swaim is newer and he's doing stuff that I find more consistent with new players as townies.
Crunkus wrote:Why is being agreeable a sign of inexperience? Why do you read it the way you read it?

Because it's difficult to push controversy or new ideas, regardless of alignment, as a newbie. I think that as a result new players (more often than they should) tend to default to agreeing or following the logic of others rather than proposing or leading their own. Furthermore, he was worried more about justifying himself than with finding scum, which is reminiscent of how town-ILI acted when we lynched him incorrectly in Simple.

Crunkus wrote:Why do I have to be getting at anything? I think I was really rather straight forward with you. Maybe go back and read what I said again?

Because frankly I think we're totally on different pages and I don't understand what the purpose of this is. I don't think you're being straightforward:

Crunkus wrote:If something reminds you of something, might it not be helpful if someone is asking you questions about it to maybe mention what specifically reminded you of what?

Crunkus wrote:Is it ridiculous to you that I'm suggesting that if something reminds you of something else and I'm asking a question about it, that fully explaining what specifically reminded you of what would be appropriate if you're trying to be understood?

These kinds of questions are not straightforward at all- can you rephrase them please. I'm trying to be as direct as possible but when you ask questions like this it gets very confusing.

Crunkus wrote:Is it your lack of experience that is causing you to be so agreeable right now?

Agreeable to what?
I agreed with you to the extent that I didn't think thewyse's case on Swaim was solidly indicative of Swaim being scum, but I added that Swaim's behavior was more consistent with that of a newbie townie which you find issue with.
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Re: WIFOMafia Invitational Game Thread: Day One

Postby LOLSHOCK » 15 Jan 2014, 01:31

C4 wrote:With regards to the current voting pattern, I'm viewing Ironhammer as more likely town than mafia, if only because of the speed on which this bangwagon has formed. 9/12 players have voted, and 2/3* of those are on IH (The asterisk due to the fact that one of those 6 is IH himself). Right now, I'm banking on 2 Mafia on it, which means I will be examining that group quite a bit further here today. I also really am looking forward to seeing Phat, Crunkus and Leroy casting votes, so I can run my nice algorithmic analysis on their votes as well.


Here is where he admits that his read is based only on the fact that bandwagons are for the most part in townies.

Potential insincere revisionism (Buzz, Buzz, Buzz...) moment:
- States there are 2 scum on IH at this stage.
- When asked why he says because 2/3 of people are on him so the maths suggests that 2 of the three scum are on him
- In fact 2/3 of the people that have voted are on him, only 1/2 of the people are on him
- Thus his explanation for why he thought there were 2 scum on him is a lie.

Needs to be verified when I'm not on a phone but I wanted to get this down while I have the chance.
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