Mafia CXXII: Dethy Mafia (Game Thread) (Town Wins)

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Mafia CXXII: Dethy Mafia (Game Thread) (Town Wins)

Postby LOLSHOCK » 07 Jan 2014, 19:34

Corruption! Murder! Not on our city streets but within the place which is supposed to protect us, the police station! But which of the cops has gone dirty and will the faithful cops be able to catch him in time?

For the rules and to sign-up as a reserve click here

Roster:
Tarsier
Petunia (Killed during Night 1)
Telleo
Dodgy
Pelagius

Reserves:
Firestorm94
Harb
Sjg11

Game Map:
Night 0 Falls Countdown Timer
Day 1 Begins Countdown Timer
Night 1 Falls Countdown Timer
Day 2 Begins (Petunia is killed) Countdown Timer
Night 2 Falls Countdown Timer
Last edited by LOLSHOCK on 15 Jan 2014, 22:51, edited 8 times in total.
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Re: Dethy Mafia (Game Thread) (Night 0)

Postby LOLSHOCK » 07 Jan 2014, 19:36

Night 0 has fallen

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Night falls on the police station, time for the cops to do some independent investigating...

Countdown timer
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Re: Dethy Mafia (Game Thread) (Night 0)

Postby LOLSHOCK » 08 Jan 2014, 19:37

Day 1 has begun

Image

The cockerel crows to mark the sunrise but not everyone has been asleep...

Countdown Timer

Deadline: 18:00 18/01/2014 (GMT)
Last edited by LOLSHOCK on 08 Jan 2014, 22:17, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dethy Mafia (Game Thread) (Night 0)

Postby dodgy56 » 08 Jan 2014, 19:58

Firstly, i think we need to sort out who we all intend to investigate before the end of each day. FMPOV we want everybody to investigate the same person to get as many reads as possible on that person to try and work out which cop each of us is. So im proposing that when we vote we put 2 votes, the lynch vote and another vote in blue to decide who we should investigate. now purely due to numbers this game ends after we make our lynch D2 (unless we catch the scum before then) so we are only going to have the investigation data from N0 and N1.
secondly, based purely on numbers again, id like to discuss no lynch. If we lynch d1 and the scum kills n1 we have 2 townies and a scum left, meaning each townie has a 50% chance of lynching the scum. If we no lynch today there would be 1 scum 3 townies, meaning each has a 33% chance of lynching the scum. This is all assuming we dont actually get any clears. SO my question to you all is, do you think the extra cop investigation info from N1 is worth the smaller exact chance of winning on D2 if we dont get a clear?

Thirdly, what are everyone's thoughts on reveals of investigation info? should we all reveal straight away who we targeted and the result? Im actually in favour of a different approach, Id like everyone to state who they targeted N0 and if we get at least 3 people saying they targeted one person then everyone reveals what the result of their investigation was. Obviously come d2 we have to reveal everything as its our last lynch. The reason i bring this up is, i assume that the scum is only given the info that the rest of us is town, not which cop we are, He/she has more info than us, and if we just full reveal he/she may be able to work out which is the real cop, or at least which of us isnt. FMPOV the scum will try and take out who he/she believes to be the real cop N1 and denying him/her the opportunity to do that could work in our favour.
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Re: Dethy Mafia (Game Thread) (Day 1)

Postby Petunia » 08 Jan 2014, 20:06

LOLSHOCK: Love the countdown timer. Can I also request, though, that the deadline itself be posted as well?

On to the game.
LOLSHOCK wrote:Roster:
Tarsier
Petunia
Telleo
Dodgy
Pelagius


I investiaged Telleo - below me in the roster. Seemed the logical thing to do. I got a town result.

So I am not paranoid. I could be sane (Telleo is town), naive (no data) or opposite (Telleo is scum).

I believe all of us should immediately post our investigation results. Obviously 4 of us have no reason not to do so and to do so honestly. If I have thought about this correctly, depending on when the maffer posts their result and/or what lie they choose to tell, that COULD give us a dipole off the bat (though likely not).

I haven't played this exact variant before but it seems that with most investigate-centered games, more time is better. No Lynch is legal per the rules. If we lynch D1 we have 80% (4/5) chance to mislynch. If we no lynch, D2 we have a 75% (3/4) chance to ML (if we lynch). I don't think the maffer can afford to pass any NKs and give us more data to work with.

So:
1A) Who did you investigate and why?
1B) What was the result
(or: is there any reason why we shouldn't all reveal investigates immediately? I can't think of one)
2) Do you think NL is our best bet D1? If not, why?
3) Is there any system for assigning investigates that gives us the best chance to identify our roles? The two obvious ones would be (assuming we investigated intelligently N0) A) investigating the person two below us on the roster N1 or B) all investigating the same person N1. Do you favor either of these or do you have a plan of your own?
4) Do you think it's legitimate to, all else equal, cast a slight suspicion on the last person to post their result?

For now:
No Lynch
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Re: Dethy Mafia (Game Thread) (Day 1)

Postby Tarsier » 08 Jan 2014, 20:27

Hey all. I'm super busy right now but will contribute tonight.
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Re: Dethy Mafia (Game Thread) (Day 1)

Postby dodgy56 » 08 Jan 2014, 20:45

Petunia wrote:
So:
1A) Who did you investigate and why?
1B) What was the result
(or: is there any reason why we shouldn't all reveal investigates immediately? I can't think of one)
2) Do you think NL is our best bet D1? If not, why?
3) Is there any system for assigning investigates that gives us the best chance to identify our roles? The two obvious ones would be (assuming we investigated intelligently N0) A) investigating the person two below us on the roster N1 or B) all investigating the same person N1. Do you favor either of these or do you have a plan of your own?
4) Do you think it's legitimate to, all else equal, cast a slight suspicion on the last person to post their result?

For now:
No Lynch

1) i investigated Petunia. I was choosing between telleo and petunia as i wanted to investigate one of the stronger players and i felt it more likely that others would investigate them as well
1b) see my first post on why i wont post this yet
2) im undecided, we will have more info d2 if we do, but it we dont get a clear then our chances are significantly lower (33% as opposed to 50%)
3) i feel we should all investigate the same person
4)i dont think it would carry much weight
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Re: Dethy Mafia (Game Thread) (Day 1)

Postby dodgy56 » 08 Jan 2014, 20:52

just a thought, what would people say to no lynching d1 and d2. it would be putting all our eggs in one basket but that lynch would leave each townie with a 50% chance of getting the scum (absent any other information). come d3 we would have the investigation results of 2 townies for 3 investigations, 1 townie for 2 investigations and 1 townie for 1 investigation, plus a whole heap of crap from 1 scum.

I think right now im in favour of either lynching d1 and d2 or no lynching both days, just a thought to consider
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Re: Dethy Mafia (Game Thread) (Day 1)

Postby Petunia » 08 Jan 2014, 21:13

Wow, dodgy56, a lot of your first post (which I missed PPE) (also missed a typo: 'investiage', really? How embarrassing) struck me initially as profoundly scummy. Don't have a ton of time at this exact moment but my overall impression was that you were sketching out a series of back doors for yourself. Second post mitigates that impression only somewhat.

But, quickly: The reason you offered for opposing immediate reveals was that it helps the scum figure out our roles. 1. Who cares? (to expand but briefly, there are two roles it's useless for scum to know but helpful (via process of elimination)* for us to know and only two that help the scum to have identified; as you imply elsewhere, by the time the scum has identified the sane and opposite cops we should have won already anyway); and 2. you don't at all address the relative importance of the reasons for and against. Investigate reveals not only go toward helping US figure out roles (which I think on its own outweighs the risk of the maffer figuring out roles) but also help us find the scum both directly (p.o.e. again) and by forcing scum to lie.

I think it's really scummy for you to have ignored this.

I'm quite thrown at the moment; I really wasn't intending on coming out firing in this game AT ALL; I was confident that with a mix of D1 NL, investigation results and classic scum hunting I could win it for us by D2. But you're alarming me.

I'm going to get back to all of this in more detail later on. But for now I'd like everyone to at least weigh in on the 4 questions I posted AND/OR pose other pressing questions of their own.

*On preview this may either take some explaining or I could be wrong but my thought is that your implication is that knowing roles helps scum in that they can target more accurate roles (that is, roles whose results actually reflect something about the target's alignment). I don't think this is the case - there are various reasons I can think of for the maffer to prefer different roles to remain in the game, especially considering the maffer gets to choose which lie they tell about their investigates. Actually maybe that means it is helpful to the scum to identify as many roles as possible. Well, anyway, the basic point (which if you read this asterisk in its place in my post, I am about to get to) still holds, I think. It's more important that we know than that the scum doesn't.
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Re: Dethy Mafia (Game Thread) (Day 1)

Postby dodgy56 » 08 Jan 2014, 21:39

Petunia wrote:Wow, dodgy56, a lot of your first post (which I missed PPE) (also missed a typo: 'investiage', really? How embarrassing) struck me initially as profoundly scummy. Don't have a ton of time at this exact moment but my overall impression was that you were sketching out a series of back doors for yourself. Second post mitigates that impression only somewhat.

But, quickly: The reason you offered for opposing immediate reveals was that it helps the scum figure out our roles. 1. Who cares? (to expand but briefly, there are two roles it's useless for scum to know but helpful (via process of elimination)* for us to know and only two that help the scum to have identified; as you imply elsewhere, by the time the scum has identified the sane and opposite cops we should have won already anyway); and 2. you don't at all address the relative importance of the reasons for and against. Investigate reveals not only go toward helping US figure out roles (which I think on its own outweighs the risk of the maffer figuring out roles) but also help us find the scum both directly (p.o.e. again) and by forcing scum to lie.

I think it's really scummy for you to have ignored this.

I'm quite thrown at the moment; I really wasn't intending on coming out firing in this game AT ALL; I was confident that with a mix of D1 NL, investigation results and classic scum hunting I could win it for us by D2. But you're alarming me.

I'm going to get back to all of this in more detail later on. But for now I'd like everyone to at least weigh in on the 4 questions I posted AND/OR pose other pressing questions of their own.

*On preview this may either take some explaining or I could be wrong but my thought is that your implication is that knowing roles helps scum in that they can target more accurate roles (that is, roles whose results actually reflect something about the target's alignment). I don't think this is the case - there are various reasons I can think of for the maffer to prefer different roles to remain in the game, especially considering the maffer gets to choose which lie they tell about their investigates. Actually maybe that means it is helpful to the scum to identify as many roles as possible. Well, anyway, the basic point (which if you read this asterisk in its place in my post, I am about to get to) still holds, I think. It's more important that we know than that the scum doesn't.


Firstly in case it wasnt clear, i was only applying that logic to now, not to d2, on d2 we need to reveal everything. I felt this was important especially if we didnt all investigate the same person, and if we did then i said we should full reveal. You make a fair point about only 2 roles being useful to the scum. but they could potentially gain that from as little as 2 people posting their results. You also make the point that once scum can work out which role is which, they can work out what to say. if they have no knowledge of what we will say and thus it makes it harder for them to lie d2. (and in that case i would be looking suspiciously at the last person to post, it wouldnt be definitive but still)

If others think its a good idea to reveal what results we got that
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