Plague Mafia II - Covid 19 Edition (Game Over)

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Re: Plague Mafia II - Covid 19 Edition (Day 1)

Postby Strategus » 26 Mar 2020, 16:20

lecrae wrote:
Strategus wrote:
kimpossible wrote:My point here, Strategus, is that I'm seeing some "Well Kim could be town but I don't really know how to read her." Especially from Lecrae, though he's now less so. And I'm telling everyone that in addition to what's in this game, there are ways for you to do your own homework. I am not unreadable if you put in some effort.

Now I'll return to scumhunting among the pool I feel is valuable today. Do the work or don't.

I just skimmed your ISO, and there really is not much. Tell me I am wrong. I saw you challenged DJ, but other than that pretty nebulous, and some stuff about pasta. I can sympathise with the latter.


She's done a hell of a lot more than most of the people here.

Where?
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Re: Plague Mafia II - Covid 19 Edition (Day 1)

Postby kimpossible » 26 Mar 2020, 16:23

lecrae wrote:
kimpossible wrote:Did he though Lecrae? Let's examine good mechanics play there with the benefit of distance. I know he thought they weren't actually so pro town.

I'm on a conf call for an hour and I actually do have some work to do, but I'll do that today.


Ngl I probably could've spent more time analyzing the nook/Joe/Aes dog/fish thing, but the mechanics that game were so complex I just looked at the end result of nook town reading two townies and read that as pretty pro-town. So yeah, I could spare a few more minutes focusing in on that point, but that's not super high on my priority list rn. I did skim the AAR just now for thoughts from nook on the mechanics, and he says this:

On the other hand, town that’s more mechanically minded/had more time and/or investment could’ve very nearly outed scum this game. BS was locked in outed scum or should’ve been by EOD, and when he dies and I have to kill not-joe, the game becomes almost impossible. ScumFish basically can’t f3, they have to overcome some serious Occam’s razor to argue that the remaining dog is scum framing them for the win, and that’s just hard to do. And if it’s f4, it’s an auto lose for scumFish, you just kill the dog and both die.


Which indicates to me that he actually did something pro-town in outing the whole dog/fish thing, but the town was so confused they never considered exploiting that.

I dunno, I have to eat and run errands but I really want to spend time today diving into other players.

Well then there may be something to find if he’s looking town on mechanics that are more confusing (and honestly the future-infection theories of gameplay are not entirely straightforward) while using those mechanics to build reads that are kinda based on the mechanics themselves. Right now I don’t see that (though tbf I’m not sure how he’d do it).

But also, I think I find myself making the “Why would scum Nanook do that?” argument a lot when he’s actually scum. He makes scum plays and relies on them being too scummy for scum. And I definitely don’t see that here, do you?
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Re: Plague Mafia II - Covid 19 Edition (Day 1)

Postby lecrae » 26 Mar 2020, 16:30

Strategus wrote:
lecrae wrote:
Strategus wrote:I just skimmed your ISO, and there really is not much. Tell me I am wrong. I saw you challenged DJ, but other than that pretty nebulous, and some stuff about pasta. I can sympathise with the latter.


She's done a hell of a lot more than most of the people here.

Where?


Well, this may sound strange considering I was challenging her on her Don Juan case yesterday, but I do think that was a good way to put pressure on him and potentially extract useful information. In re-reading our interaction yesterday, I also get a sense that she was trying to understand my thought process by asking pressuring questions of me. She's asked Fatmo sharp questions, and she's narrated her thought process on town reading nook and UFO. I don't really understand her nook/UFO reads too well because they're based on gut feeling and past experience, but she's clearly pursued reads on a lot of the players here. I'm also not saying I super duper townread her, but I do think she's put out so many reads on so many different people that it'll be useful stuff to look back on later in the game where we can look back on today to analyze for scum teams. And it's pushing the game forward.

A lot of the town really hasn't done that. Like DJ/UFO/sorta condude/you until now.

I'm coming round to the idea of lynching the least "helpful" person in the group who's also most likely to be scum and trying to find the intercept of that system of equations. :ugeek: Essentially the scummiest person who also is not really contributing much to the town and will be hard to read in the future because of it.
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Re: Plague Mafia II - Covid 19 Edition (Day 1)

Postby kimpossible » 26 Mar 2020, 16:35

Strategus wrote:
lecrae wrote:
Strategus wrote:I just skimmed your ISO, and there really is not much. Tell me I am wrong. I saw you challenged DJ, but other than that pretty nebulous, and some stuff about pasta. I can sympathise with the latter.


She's done a hell of a lot more than most of the people here.

Where?

I’m going to stop on pursuing this with Strategus. I’ve given you all the advice I have to sort me, I can’t help you if you don’t see where I’m pushing Lecrae and Fatmo, and doing my own work with other people to sort Condude, UFO, and Fatmo. There’s a lot of me asking others, especially ones I feel are >rand to be town, to talk out our reads while giving my thoughts and input instead of subtly riding their input so I don’t have to actually have my own.

From here, it’s far more valuable for people who aren’t me to do the work on me so they can read me for themselves.
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Re: Plague Mafia II - Covid 19 Edition (Day 1)

Postby Strategus » 26 Mar 2020, 16:42

So question to Kim and Lecrae, so far, who to TK and who do I visit?
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Re: Plague Mafia II - Covid 19 Edition (Day 1)

Postby kimpossible » 26 Mar 2020, 16:52

Actually, one more bit. I don’t usually do summarizing reads lists in single posts, but if it helps, here you go:

Strategus: obviously town.

Sinny: tonally town. I also have the soul reads of Fatmo and Nanook, and since they can’t both be scum with her, I’m happy keeping her out of consideration today.

AKFD: I have brought multiple pieces of evidence to the thread on why I believe he’s town. He’s young and I have several games of experience, including a non-Mafia game, to suggest that he’s super honest and straightforward, perhaps a little too malleable in his opinions, but I’ll shout down any attempt to kill him today, and probably at all in this game.

UFO: currently a town soulread. I’ve attempted to explain why already.

Nanook: >rand to be town. Much of my read is based on past games that I’m comparing to this one to have a gestalt sense of which Nanook I’m seeing. Right now I’m seeing town.

Lecrae: Of the people landing in my D1 potential kill pool, he’s the one I least want to kill. There would be value in his flip, but I’m seeing effort, and our exchange last night now looks more like a genuine clash of beliefs than scum trying to cover for a partner who done fucked up.

Condude: Man, I’m feeling super wary here. He’s saying the right things, but my gut feeling is that he’s not doing much actual reading. I need to review more closely.

Don Juan: I want to kill him. I do. But I’m also asking myself, if he really is scum, will we get value from his flip? If I was his partner I’d have bussed him fast and hard after that opening. If he has an experienced partner — and the evidence suggests he would — I don’t see us getting useful info on finding that partner if we kill him today.

Fatmo: Needs to answer some questions. My gut says he’s not trying, and yes, yes, I know out of game stuff happens. But scum can use that as easily as town. He’s a problem for me because his meta is currently out the window. There would probably be more value in that flip than in Don Juan’s, but I’m holding out to get some input from Nanook and UFO, who, again, can’t both be a scum partner to him and both of whose opinions mean a lot fo me in sorting Fatmo.

Hopefully that helps. My vote is stale but currently I don’t care. We’re not hammering here and I have plenty of time to change.
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Re: Plague Mafia II - Covid 19 Edition (Day 1)

Postby Strategus » 26 Mar 2020, 17:01

Why is Nook saying neither you, he nor Condude should be TKd?
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Re: Plague Mafia II - Covid 19 Edition (Day 1)

Postby kimpossible » 26 Mar 2020, 17:03

Strategus wrote:So question to Kim and Lecrae, so far, who to TK and who do I visit?

I’m leaning toward Conude and Fatmo in some order.

PPE: Dude, why are you asking me that question instead of him? He already said that we can’t all 3 be scum, and the 3 of us are the people best poised to be town leaders, which he’s also already said. If you need more, I’m not the one who can give it to you.
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Re: Plague Mafia II - Covid 19 Edition (Day 1)

Postby Strategus » 26 Mar 2020, 17:09

kimpossible wrote:
Strategus wrote:So question to Kim and Lecrae, so far, who to TK and who do I visit?

I’m leaning toward Conude and Fatmo in some order.

PPE: Dude, why are you asking me that question instead of him? He already said that we can’t all 3 be scum, and the 3 of us are the people best poised to be town leaders, which he’s also already said. If you need more, I’m not the one who can give it to you.

He asked you about it. Town leader, meh. Two of you could be scum, and then we are in a whole world of shit. We only need one "town leader", if none of the rest are capable.
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Re: Plague Mafia II - Covid 19 Edition (Day 1)

Postby kimpossible » 26 Mar 2020, 17:17

I hate to tell you this, but we’re already in a world of shit if 2 / 3 of Nanook, Condude, and I are scum. I’m focusing on what’s helpful right now.
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