DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby nanooktheeskimo » 11 Feb 2019, 10:19

Nanook D2 Post 5

Shadow time.


the part she colored purple, but in black wrote:I also had no idea RS was such a runaway. Damn. Even more not loving that now.
Okay, specific question about this. Why does RS being a runaway wagon make you not want to vote for him? I get that it's tempting to think large wagons are suspicious, but with only 2 scum in the game... what's the logical backing for this? It's the part I coloured purple.

I don't know how you can honestly look at this vote count:
Nanooktheeskimo (3): Sjg11, Shadowface, Aeschines
RedSun (7): Kimpossible, UpsideDownChuck, Asudevil, Sinnybee, Nanooktheeskimo, Fatmo, Zoomzip
sjg11 (1) : Harb

No vote: RedSun

And think "Yep, definitely catching scum there."

Especially cause, FMPOV, I was the only person that was actively defending RS as being unlikely to be scum (meaning that if he was scum, his buddy was most likely bussing...on D1...in a game with a 10/2 ration...right) (I don't remember anyone else being actively against his TK--there were a couple "meh, I don't love it"'s, but as far as I recall nobody else really saying "This is a bad idea."

Before this VC was posted, I thought RS was at like 4 or 5 votes, pretty much neck and neck with me, which I felt a little better about--it seemed plausible to me that a potential partner might be indirectly defending him by attacking elsewhere. But at 7-3? That pretty much set RS as being town in my eyes, when coupled with the behavioral read.

"Coming out firing''. What do you mean by this? What were you looking for yesterday that he's doing now but not then? Also, what about his post is super town positive? Is a willingness to die/disinterest in defending oneself necessarily townie? Because I can think of a good scum reason for taking this stance - you don't need to answer accusations against yourself and you can attack others instead. Not being defensive, in fact, is an incredibly useful scum strategy. You give people less negative material to cling on to.

I mean he came out strong. Powerful. Firing on all cylinders. Like a majestic grizzly snatching a salmon from the stream with his big-ass paw.

It's kind of a tone thing, so it's a little hard to give much in the way of details. Basically, he is more assertive and focused on solving the game and it sort of shines through in a way that I think is probably hard to fake.

Yeah, I hear you, but there's a difference between saying "I'm not defending myself, fuck you guys," and "I'm just going to focus on scumhunting." If he spends the day not scumhunting, then there's a problem, but if he spends it trying to solve and find scum...that's much more town positive than him spending all his energy defending himself. Also, like, not defending himself isn't the same as saying "I'm ignoring every question put to me," too. So yeah, I think it's a good attitude to have, especially since I know when I'm playing scum one thing I like to do is get people on the backfoot and defending themselves (preferably against someone that isn't me) rather than trying to find scum and solve the game. I feel like you should be familiar with the concept, and I think it's close to what you've done in games before, where you say "I'm gonna spend less time defending and more time solving"? Maybe my memory is bad, but yeah, I do think you should have an idea why this is generally a town positive thing.

There's also the fact that as scum, it's super easy to use having to defend yourself to avoid faking scumhunting. Especially for someone that's a newer scum player, that's a pretty natural reaction I think, so the fact he's going against it I think is a decent indicator.

Like, obviously we keep evaluating fatmo, but we do it based on the quality of his scumhunting, not on his defense, which to be honest is generally a better way to catch scum anyways.

Begin next part!
"...?" might be accurate. I don't scumread you any less. I also don't know if that's because you're scum. I don't feel like making more cases on you is going to resolve anything. So yeah, ...?

I wish you weren't so lazy about this. If you're scum, I'm kinda disappointed you decided to go down this route again, and if you're town, I'm super disappointed that you're being so bullheaded about this.

Especially since you ended this with a weak Aeschines vote, followed by saying you need to get some reactions to that vote (not sure how you expect to get anything useful from it after saying that, but OK), then apparently deciding it was easier just to go back to the Nanook well instead of putting actual work into this game.

What it looks like to me is that the Fatmo wagon is losing stream, and Nanook realized, as a brilliant scholar once coined, that the wagon isn't going to float and trying to get out before he gets burned by it. What supports this? Well, look where he votes... straight to sjg. The guy who the wagon's moving to. ZZ literally had voted him just above. It's exactly who he jumps to. SJG is so damn right about how parrotty nanook is being.

It's really weird how someone who was ostensibly paying enough attention to me to scumread me yesterday didn't notice that I had an sjg scumread for a large chunk of the day yesterday, and that I spent a not inconsiderable amount of time trying to sway ZZ to my side. If anyone is using someone for cover to make an sjg vote, it's ZZ using me, not the other way round.

(Also, like, was I supposed to magically make this vote before my first post today? How does that work?

So yeah, this is really dumb.

He just decided to stop being a nice guy and giving sjg the benefit of the doubt at this time. Nothing specific, he was just "wrestling" with this and finally ended up there due to no actual factors changing that would impact his read. Do you know what that could also be? A reason he's not telling us influencing the change. I'd be really curious about the thought process here... what exactly made him "end up" here? Or "end up" at all? I'd ask but I doubt I'll get a response here. Nanook can hop in and elaborate here if he wants though.

Uh. What? I literally laid it out for you already! But OK, sure (including response to your next couple things after this cause they're a pain to quote):

D1, Nanook thinks sjg is scum because sjg is pushing a case on him the same way scumsjg pushes cases on townNanook.

Sjg says "Fuck this I'm peacing out cause RL BS."

Nanook, having experienced RL BS in the past, is empathetic and decides that sometimes not being a dick is more important than the game*, so he decides to move his vote. Thinking it's RS or him, he votes RS.

Nanook then sees the VC after Kim posts it, does a double take and goes "Wow, that's bad. Also I'm not in any danger, so let's try and move the vote somewhere that might actually catch scum." So Nanook moves to Fatmo, a player he's had some worries about D1, and knows there's some momentum for to potentially save very-likely-to-be-town RS.

During N1, Nanook has a long think to himself about how much he's willing to consider an out of game factor. He decides that if it were a definite "Yeah there's no way he's scum" he'd factor it in and feel a little dirty doing so, short of that he's going to write it off as "sorry, nothing personal, I empathize with RL, but I'm not reading you based on it," and make the best read he can based on the thread.

D2 starts, Nanook finally gets to thread, reads fatmo's post that clears up a lot of his D1 niggling doubts (and, if you'll recall, is the very reason I was hesitant to kill Fatmo on D1, since he's capable of getting a lot stronger and readable as the game progresses). He also votes sjg, since that's his best vote based on in thread info. This is a read he's talked about a lot during D1, and thus shouldn't catch anyone by surprise, but apparently there are people that (ostensibly) read his D1 and scumread him D1 but didn't bother paying attention to the hundreds of words he spent on it.

In addition: sometimes people change their mind. It happens. ScumNanook is rarely this kinetic with his voting, take that FWIW.

*FWIW, scumNanook basically always ignores out of game stuff. See pushing tragibad D1 mis-kill of Keir in Dune based on essentially nothing and ignoring his meta threat to quit (which, sorta feel bad for, but not really, cause I was playing to my wincon, and Keir god love him is a drama queen sometimes (love you Keir <3)).


shadow wrote:Nope. Stop it. Stop obfuscating.

also shadow wrote:People always pull this accusation of dodging, but I wonder if it's substantiated? And what sets it apart from just maybe not answering one specific person's questions? Alsoooooo... I'm not scumreading you for this read at all because I use this kind of thing (wrongly) all the time, but just saying, do most 'dodging' players actually turn out to be scum intentionally avoiding tough questions, as opposed to confused/misunderstood/flustered/busy townies? Just something to think about.

"Guys, catching people this way doesn't usually work, I'm speaking from experience."

**two minutes later**

"GUYS I CAUGHT NANOOK THIS WAY.'

Is SJG scum out to get you or something?

Almost definitely, did you pay any attention to what I said D1?

Happy with this vote. I don't know how I'm supposed to kill nanook without him freaking out at me, so so be it. Killing scum nanook is like The Exorcist, it's not a pretty process.

I wouldn't freak out at you if a) you weren't being incredibly lazy about your read of me, and b) I didn't know you could do better.

ScumNanook has tells but good lord do you have the wrong ones.

Nanook, if you're town, you need to explain your actual processes. If you think someone's misrepresenting you, you either need to prove their scum trying to get you mislynched, or show them why they're misled town. And you should be curious, and investigating, which it is. Not ignoring their substance and insulting their case. The real problem I and others have identified here is that I don't see why you're moving your votes when you are - and when there's no process there, but they correlate with what's the easiest vote, that's a problem.

I really strongly contest that my votes have correlated to the easiest vote. Like, the only debatably easy votes I've made were my second one on RS and the Fatmo vote. My first RS vote, nobody else was there when I made it. The Aes vote, nobody else was there when I made it. I fucking own the sjg wagon. Those aren't "hide" votes or easy votes, they're votes that put responsibility on me if that person is killed. Do your fucking research before parroting an accusation.

Also, there is a fucking process! I talked about why I was voting RS when I did, I talked about why I voted Aes, I talked extensively about why I voted sjg, I interacted with ZZ around Fatmo well prior to putting a vote there. The only vote you can contest was poorly sourced was the self prez vote for RS I made without knowing the vote count. Otherwise, the votes are sourced, you might be too lazy to run down those sources before trumpeting sjg's baseless accusations, but that's your own fault, not mine.


You're just being so lazy this game, and I hate it, cause it's making it really hard to read you. Like, you could've come in today and buckled down and done actual work, and instead you've wasted posts and time dithering about and coming back to the same crappy Nanook scum read. Like, even if you scumread me, fine, whatever, but spend your time trying to find another scum read! Cause tbh, what it looks like if we're being uncharitable is that scumShadow came into thread, pretended to waver in her Nanook read to look reasonable, then doubled down on it so she wouldn't have to find another person to fake scumread. I dunno if that's what happened or not, but I almost want to believe that, cause it would be a hell of a lot less disappointing than townShadow wasting her time like this.


Seriously though. You want to scumread me, fine, I'm not spending more time on this. Find another scum read too. You don't have to drop your shitty read of me, but look elsewhere too. Don't spend more time on me unless it's to realize your mistake--as long as you're still scumreading me, you shouldn't be interacting with me, you should be trying to build a second case.
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby Harb » 11 Feb 2019, 10:55

Harb, D2 Post 1
Okay. Sorry for the delayed entrance folks. I'm from Texas originally and Seattle got turned into the first legit winter wonderland that I've LITERALLY ever experienced. So you all may indeed be precious snowflakes, the real thing called.

I spent some time going back over D1. I actually spent a decent bit of time in the pg 4-6 range. The sjg / Nook interactions are good there, and I've been struggling with those two. I also went into the Night still feeling shitty/angry/shittyforfeelingangry with sjg, so I tended that direction.

For a recap: Nook is in catch up mode. He votes RS, then Aeschines very next post. The Aeschines vote gets the focus, but it's specifically built on a trigger that Nook set up previously (Resistance player reference). The Aeschines issue develops weirdly though. It's mentioned in the last part of the first post, and then it's the first part of the second. Nook even goes hunting does Aeschines scum chat as evidence. There just seems like a lot more effort put into the Aeschines read than RedSun, even in the first post where RedSun gets the vote. That said, with the RS flip I'm not sure what the motive would be for getting an RS vote on record prior to moving to Aeschines. (As I think more on this, the answer could be Nook/Aes scum team and Nook is building up a record of suspicion to move off Aes)

sjg says these are "easy" votes, and the RS vote sure does stand out that way. I'm not sure at all how to way that vote from Nook's POV though, given how fast he abandons it. I don't think "easy" applies the Aeschines' vote though. One, sjg has already offered a competing meta read. Two, the reference Nook makes for the vote is pretty direct and one that only Nook is catching. There's work going into that vote that sjg isn't engaging with. And it feels like work sjg SHOULD be engaging with, given that it's meta stuff. It's a directly competing narrative to sjg's townread. It's also not like there's cover there, nook is first on Aeschines.

Then we have here. This is a little while after Asu comes in and comments that all Aeschines' voters are turds and he wishes a fiery humiliation upon them (I paraphrase). This is the point where sjg says Nook is backing off without his usual level of stubbornness. sjg's timeline today focuses on his interactions, but there's other stuff going on to pressure that vote shift. Nook seems to be specifically discounting the Aes defenses though (without being real specific about which defenses he disagrees with). So Nook is aware of the defenses, but not interacting with them.

I think the current discussion surrounding Nook's "snark" is getting away from the originally presented issue of town Nook getting into arguments. Nook is actually pretty snarky to SF prior to sjg's post about getting into arguments, it just fizzles out. Snark is pretty useless as an indicator, but the fact that Nook isn't getting FIERY prior to the point out is troubling. Even I remember Nook as being fiery and invested. (Side note, I've seen Nook's recent responses to this and I don't think they answer as much as he thinks they do. Like, if the claim is that townNook actively tries to avoid flame wars then scumNook straight dropped this gem in thread)

Also from that time period, here's the vote count as of end of pg6.

Harb (1): Fatmo
ZoomZip (1): Nook
Nanook (4): sjg, Aeschines, Harb, SF
Fatmo (1): ZoomZip
Aeschines (1): RedSun
RedSun (1): UDC, Asu, Kim

And the RS wagon at its height
Nanooktheeskimo (3): Sjg11, Shadowface, Aeschines
RedSun (7): Kimpossible, UpsideDownChuck, Asudevil, Sinnybee/FS, Nanooktheeskimo, Fatmo, Zoomzip
sjg11 (1) : Harb

EVERYONE not on the nanook lynch at pg6 has consolidated onto Redsun. So there's a whole day of weighing going on, and no one's breaking Nook's direction. Even recognizing that the majority of that RS lynch MUST be town, that one's bothering me. I'm really confident in scum on the RS lynch, even more than just normal "there's probably scum on a leading lynch D1".

I think we can even make it narrower.

Day End
Nook (2): Sjg, Aeschines
RedSun (5): Sinnybee, ASU, UDC, SF, Fatmo
Fatmo (4): Nook, Harb, Kim, ZZ

townFatmo / scumFatmo, either way there's little reason for scumZZ to make a late break and seal the death of a townie.
There's more plausible reasoning for scumNook to make that move if Fatmo is also scum, less so if town. Why jump out of a big pool into the smaller pool of non-RS voters?
So I think there's a pretty solid chance of scum in Sinny/FS, Asu, UDC, SF, Fatmo.
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby Harb » 11 Feb 2019, 11:22

Fatmo

Alright, a bit of reset with our issues stand :

re:ZZ
You said
Perhaps one of the things I haven't payed enough attention to is the standard song and dance between you and Sjg with the reaction tests. But I've at least followed along a bit with it. Now that I think more on it, I'd probably fall more on the side of thinking you came out of that more suspicious than Sjg.


So you're admitting you havent paid attention, which lays the groundwork for your later answers. You ALSO say however that "now that I think more on it" part though. I challenge you about how that could possibly be your impression, and you say it really went in one ear and out the other. So I've got two conflicts that need resolving. Whether you actually were thinking about the situation, and if so how yo got to ZZ being more suspicious. I understand you weren't scumreading ZZ. That's not the point. It's that the specific siutation you referred to shouldn't have led to any additional suspicion at all.

The thing about namedropping me is connected. I don't think what you're saying I do. So now you seem even more disconnected from this situation you're saying you've thought about and formed this opinion from.

Do you see where your answers don't really talk about that (perhaps they do more today, I haven't dived in yet)? Saying you weren't scumreading ZZ or that you found what I said interesting (here for reference) doesn't address that disconnect or why you were claiming a read from something that I don't even know if you were paying attention to or not.

re:Your move off of me
I didn't like the phrasing "pushed enough". It didn't sound like you'd changed your mind on me at all. It didn't seem like a reason to change your vote. You had laid out RedSun issues previously, so I didn't think the RS vote came out of nowhere. I just didn't understand why you weren't interested in pushing me any longer, which made it seem like you never really believed it in the first place.

re:D2 cold open
So, you wrote your opening post overnight. Talk to me about why you only talk about ZZ and I voting you today. Why no mention of Nook or Kim?

Also, why did you find it super suspicious a bunch of people piled onto you? Talk about why that seems like the behavior of scum to you rather than townies.


Is the reset helping to frame these issues better for you?

Part of the reason I'm starting back here is that voting info from above. I also need to look more closely at the other folks there. Sinny's vote wasn't great on reread, and the UDC/Asu/SF trio that stuck to RS all day needs looking. Tomorrow I'll try and work on newer stuff as well.
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby asudevil » 11 Feb 2019, 14:12

So I kinda like the case on Nook.

The rest of what has been said isn't really resonating with me. But I still think Aesch is the better vote. He doesn't seem honest/townie to me. I like Fatmo better.

@Harb...despite what I just said...I wonder if Fatmo ignored Kim's vote on him cause he knew she would be dead.

As for my RS vote and why I was cool with killing a townie even if we were wrong. RS is an easy mislynch at the end. And with all the suspicions being thrown at him early...were we ever going to reset to a point where 1/2 of us weren't thinking he was town...especially if Fatmo flipped town...and we wonder if somehow scum saved their chum?

That's my biggest reason for being ok with that early lead going down. I thought he was scum...and the town struggles to ever get past that. And spending the next 2 days debating it or even worse having to kill him just in case BEFORE MYLO ... is worse than killing him D1.
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby Zoomzip » 11 Feb 2019, 16:41

ZoomZip 02.02.A/B

@Aeschines/@Town (Since this is also about Aeschines as opposed to just to him)
Aeschines wrote:Zoomzip
Voted RedSun. Identifies that RS is playing the same way as he did in normal where he was mis-TK'd, which seems to support his transition to Fatmo. He then flipped to Fatmo. I really don't trust this switch. I don't think ZZ put credible thought into it, considering he seemed like he had a solid basis for landing on RS.


This is, like... the exact opposite of what happened D1 FMPOV. Like, I was on Fatmo all the second half, only moved to RS out of consolidation concerns, was not entirely comfortable with that move when I made it, and moved back to Fatmo. I don't know if that has any alignment bearing on Aeschines, because if he's scum he's sloppy scum right here, as the

Aeschines wrote:2) So your claim is that the sudden wagon movement on Fatmo is supportive of his innocence. I had a similar first thought until I realized that the Fatmo wagon arose over the span of 10 minutes, at a point when a large chunk of the thread (myself, you, sinny, sjg11, asu) wasn't there. What do you think of that?


Aeschines wrote:1) You're correct but also assuming that level of shell-game at the outset will result in nothing other than this. You're welcome to push for an investigation into the non-wagons, but refusing to investigate the main wagons because they could have been trying to trick you... That just results in scum being able to get away with the obvious move.


2) If the vote on Fatmo isn't a semi-clear/clear for Fatmo that that logically requires us to believe that it is an actual clear for the three flippers who flipped, considering how close it came, right? The scum would have had not incentive to let the Fatmo wagon get that close. Kim's townclear is evident but Nanook AND ZoomZip I would not be willing to put both in the clear category.

Indeed, I must again agree with SJG's analysis on Nanookwith ZoomZip bringing up my #2 for scumread. I think they were both on RedSun, realized that looked hella suspicious with 25+ voters there and so tried to hide their votes in Fatmo, who they also knew was town. Neither of their switches seemed to have a real basis except the size of the wagon.[/quote]

OK, so in Aeschines' world -- Aeschines and SJG are town because they didn't vote for Red Sun, and they didn't vote for Fatmo who you think is also probably town. So, you look at SJG, and you say to yourself "Wow, he is smart just like me -- we both knew that Fatmo and Red Sun were town" -- And you don't for amoment consider "Hmmmm... I wonder if SJG already knew FAtmo and Red Sun were town by virtue of SJG being scum." And you don't wonder "I bet since SJG was stuck away from the major wagons, it would have been difficult for him to cast a last minute vote for someone he knew was town."

Also, you are voting Nook because... I have no idea why you think Nook is scummier than I am. As far as I can tell, I am your real top scum read. You are being way too credulous to SJG, or simply using him as an excuse to avoid actually making your own case. Or explain what about SJG's case makes Nook a better case for you than me.

I think you want me dead. But I think you are a coward who won't fight for it. Vote me and sell it.

@Firestorm
1. Chuck, Kim, and shadow have entered the "ZZ won't vote here" club. What got Chuck over that wall for you since your last post? Did Kim say anything in particular to get herself there? Why is shadow there?

2. How exactly does sjg surfing you lend itself to Harb being more likely town?

3. So you say that Harb is in your range (totally fine) but mention that he's probably not the best choice in that pool. That's fine too. But it seems a little bit strange to completely remove your vote from Harb at this point. Sure, he might not be your first choice, but that beats having Kim (who was in the lead at the time) die, right? Can you give me a bit more on why you removed your vote from Harb?

4. You list 7 people: 3 that you don't want dead and 4 that you're willing to kill. What about the other 4? I'd assume that they're null-space, but why don't they get to be in the "ZZ's hitlist" club?

5. Do you feel like Red Sun's opening was weak? What put him in your top 4 TKs?


So, you're asking about a real time progression several days later, but I'll do my best here to reconstruct the actual evolution of my feelings. I think you're trying to evaluate the sincerity of these opinions as a way of determining my alignment? I guess? Otherwise I'm not sure of the value of these questions, but... meh. In order then...

1) I think I had contrived some way of actually engaging UDC one on one and poking at him, I think on his analysis of kim/shadow. Based on that interaction, and an attempt to provoke a scum read on him, he came through ok. It was the best attempt to apply some rigor to UDC and make him make a stand I felt like I could do, but he didn't shy away from it once it was there. As for shadow -- her D1 was poking at various things and actually pushing cases. The work did not seem to be busy work, and the cases felt genuine. Not sure why I shouldn't have removed shadow from range? She was willing to make a thin vote on a VEVO basis -- that always earns my respect.

2) If SJG is surfing me (because he is scum using a townie for cover) then Harb's holding SJG to account looks better. Pretty simply. (But distancing! Yeah, I mean, I suppose, but that way lies madness where no interaction means anything)

3) I removed my vote from Harb because I thought I wanted to vote SJG, but was surprised as I was writing when SJG made the sudden push to Nook that felt like new ground was being broken in a new and on surface level townie way, which meant that my sudden desire to move to SJG was blunted but my appetite for Harb was likewise diminished. So... unvote.

4) I am curious about this question because... I think the paragraph you are quoting from directly reference my feelings on those people. Is this a real question (See below, emphasis added)?

ZoomZip wrote:Where I think I am at: UDC, Kim, Shadow are not in range for me. Nervous about SJG surfing me a bit, which is buffing Harb somewhat. Concerned that ASU doesn't have strong feelings yet, but that can happen (men at arms)... Sinny is not playing. Fatmo is... someone I need to see play scum, but not out of his usual town lanes. I just wish his usual lanes led to stronger suspicions on his part...I see SJG has just posted, and I like his line on Nook actually... That's a new line of inquiry... hmmm... OK, so I think I want to vote in a pool of Harb / Red Sun / Nook / SJG. And I don't think Harb is the best of that pool. And I need to see how SJG's most recent post sinks in.


This question, more than any other, feels... really weird FS. Like you are just looking for excuses to ask questions instead of trying to actually understand the game state.

5) Red Sun's opening was objectively weak. That's like, obvious dude. Is this something you are contesting. LEt me turn this around -- should Red Sun not have been in my range? Should I not have been worried there? I did later actually try and engage with Red Sun, but he like never responded. So... this is two weird questions from you.

@SJG11: I owe you a longer response. It won't happen for another six hour or so probably.

--EDIT Fixed lableling and quote tags
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby Harb » 11 Feb 2019, 18:12

Harb, Day 2 Post 2

Fatmo

Alright, a bit of reset with our issues stand :

re:ZZ
You said
Perhaps one of the things I haven't payed enough attention to is the standard song and dance between you and Sjg with the reaction tests. But I've at least followed along a bit with it. Now that I think more on it, I'd probably fall more on the side of thinking you came out of that more suspicious than Sjg.


So you're admitting you havent paid attention, which lays the groundwork for your later answers. You ALSO say however that "now that I think more on it" part though. I challenge you about how that could possibly be your impression, and you say it really went in one ear and out the other. So I've got two conflicts that need resolving. Whether you actually were thinking about the situation, and if so how yo got to ZZ being more suspicious. I understand you weren't scumreading ZZ. That's not the point. It's that the specific siutation you referred to shouldn't have led to any additional suspicion at all.

The thing about namedropping me is connected. I don't think what you're saying I do. So now you seem even more disconnected from this situation you're saying you've thought about and formed this opinion from.

Do you see where your answers don't really talk about that (perhaps they do more today, I haven't dived in yet)? Saying you weren't scumreading ZZ or that you found what I said interesting (here for reference) doesn't address that disconnect or why you were claiming a read from something that I don't even know if you were paying attention to or not.

re:Your move off of me
I didn't like the phrasing "pushed enough". It didn't sound like you'd changed your mind on me at all. It didn't seem like a reason to change your vote. You had laid out RedSun issues previously, so I didn't think the RS vote came out of nowhere. I just didn't understand why you weren't interested in pushing me any longer, which made it seem like you never really believed it in the first place.

re:D2 cold open
So, you wrote your opening post overnight. Talk to me about why you only talk about ZZ and I voting you today. Why no mention of Nook or Kim?

Also, why did you find it super suspicious a bunch of people piled onto you? Talk about why that seems like the behavior of scum to you rather than townies.


Is the reset helping to frame these issues better for you?

Part of the reason I'm starting back here is that voting info from above. I also need to look more closely at the other folks there. Sinny's vote wasn't great on reread, and the UDC/Asu/SF trio that stuck to RS all day needs looking. Tomorrow I'll try and work on newer stuff as well.

Begin Edit : @Asu - Yeah, Nook is definitely the other side of the coin on that voting info as well. I feel like there's other potential reasons scum might have consolidated onto RS rather than Nook. The move doesn't seem natural, so I'm looking at the movers themselves rather than divine their intentions. Nook's very much on the board for me though.
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby Aeschines » 11 Feb 2019, 19:38

@Shadow, I think you're going about this the wrong way. When you write that the only thing that matters is "why you vote not who you vote for" (paraphrasing) - that's dead wrong. The odds that I, a townie, vote for a townie are semi-random. But the odds that a scum votes for a townie are much, much higher. That I never voted for a the confirmed townie makes it (from an objective, outside perspective) more likely that I am not scum. This is like being in Resistance being on a failed team versus being on a successful team. It isn't a confirmation of town/scum but it is solid evidence, which is why I'm not that worried about Sjg. I really believe you have town interests at heart, but I wish you'd focus on the logical in-game information, rather than analyzing people's stated reasoning (which scum can eassssily fake). If we were playing in person, I'd be on board with your strategy but online its too easy to write & re-write to make sure reasoning sounds good.

@ZoomZip, I don't "want you dead". I want to catch the scum. My top scumread, far and away, is Nanook. His changing messaging styles and his voting patterns make him my top scumread. So I continue to vote Nanook. ZZ, that you also flipped off of RS into Fatmo makes you my best second-guess. I'm not operating solely on feeling on (foolhardy) attempts to read your posts and catch out mistakes in your analysis (which would require the scum to make a mistake to be caught). I'm basing my suspicion of you on your voting record. Additionally, I'd say that if Nanook is scum and we TK him today, I would be faaar less concerned about you. That both scum would flip off the RS to the Fatmo wagon last minute seems less likely to me than that they tried to split their votes.

@Town: you spent all of D1 telling me how useful D1 was, in part because we could pick through the voting patters. It doesn't feel to me like anyone is doing that (also, h*ck you, asu - you're certainly not doing any work). My vote is supported by a pattern of suspicious voting. That is something concrete.

EDIT: @ Harb, I don't get your vote for Fatmo. Are you willing to townclear Nanook AND ZZ for their voting pattern? If not, can you clarify what about my logic there doesn't make sense?
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby Aeschines » 11 Feb 2019, 19:41

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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby sjg11 » 11 Feb 2019, 20:07

Sjg- Post 5

Nook: So, here's where I'm at on nook now:
1. I retract the point on Aeschines.
2. Harb, I still say that the Aeschines vote is an easy vote in the sense that it's easy to justify. If someone throws a random vote down it's easy to justify a vote on them. Makes sense? And also on nook's work rate when making a meta-read... nook tends to work as hard as he can as both alignments although, when he's low on time, there tends to be a tonal difference there. So.. him working on a read... doesn't seem unusual regardless of alignment.
3. Summary on nook, I'm moving him to a null read with some concerns. When I say "snark" around nook, I mean fire and passion, I may have been using snark in a different sense there and I may have got some wires crossed with people over it. I have a nook who, early on, didn't really seem invested in the game BUT he now does seem invested in the game. Which is a situation I don't think I've ever seen from nook before and I'm really not sure what to do with it. I see a town process here where nook got thrown off by RL busyness and a new format and it took him some time to grow into the game. I also see a scenario with a scum nook who was coasting and then got woken up and started to push at stuff in response to that and has successfully faked investment after that.

Fatmo, could you respond to Harb's last post on you please? I know you don't want to spend the day on the defensive but making a judgment on Harb is a priority for me today and I'm gonna want to engage with him on his case on you and, to do that, I need some back and forth between you and Harb about it. I also want to make a more definitive judgment on you today and that back-and-forth will defo help with that.

Harb, I know I've thrown some bad feels your way and not really followed them up but I hope you get why I'm not discussing your Fatmo stuff until he responds to them. If you're town, I have no intention of treading on your toes even though I do have a lot of doubt over your alignment right now.

ZZ- I don't get the focus your putting on the wasted EOD votes here. Me and Aeschines left the thread when it was nook vs RS. The nook wagon disintegrated in our absense. I don't think there's anything to read into our votes staying on nook at EOD in that context. And I look forward to your longer reply. Like I said earlier today, don't want to go on the defensive today entirely but SOME back and forth can only be useful for both of us.

@Harb: You seeing a difference between sloppy Aes here and more controlled Aes in Christmas on meta? Would like updated thoughts there...
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Re: DW Mafia I: SILENCE WILL FALL

Postby sjg11 » 11 Feb 2019, 20:09

EDIT
One of the people in charge of the Mafia forum.
Telleo wrote:The mafia forum, to them,
Sir SJG's known as a gem,
He writes a good game,
and runs it the same,
Oh what a perfect GM!

Come on Arsenal!
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