Diplomacy Puzzle - The Ghug Gambit

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Re: Diplomacy Puzzle - The Ghug Gambit

Postby Captainmeme » 29 Aug 2016, 21:12

Fantastic answer! I'll put a note in the description of the video, linking to your post.

I should note that although I received that answer via PM from you before the solution video, I was pretty tired at the time and saw the words "I also assume that you want me to wow the crowd with a repeat of the previous exercise (Russia - Tyrrhenian Sea, Tunis supporting, while Austria dislodges Ionian Sea into Naples..." and responded that you had the right answer without realising you had another solution written below. Sorry about that!

The big problem with creating Diplomacy puzzles that span more than one phase (such as the one here) and that attempt to use a reasonable portion of the board is that it's very hard to make sure that there aren't any alternative solutions. Mostly that's not a problem - the point of the puzzle is to get people to think through situations and challenge Dip players to try to find the answer, and finding alternative solutions also does that - but insinuating (as I did in the solution video) that mine was the only answer when it isn't is not good, so I'll correct that.

Again, nicely found. I have a feeling you may find more alternative solutions in the next one because it was a really hard one to check over - hopefully not, but I guess we'll see!
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Re: Diplomacy Puzzle - The Ghug Gambit

Postby appleseedy » 30 Aug 2016, 17:02

assuming that you know Frances moves after his initial overconfidence yes I think that solution works though is no better than the first solution because once the Fleet reaches North Africa coast the next turn the position is essentially identical

Allied Fleets occupy Naples Ionian Sea and Tunis, French Fleets occupy NaF/Gulf of Lyons and Western Med. Identical to the solution posted?

Once this position is reached the game will proceed until the allies guess wrong and France wins anyway if he hides his moves
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Re: Diplomacy Puzzle - The Ghug Gambit

Postby Captainmeme » 31 Aug 2016, 02:59

New puzzle is out!

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Re: Diplomacy Puzzle - The Ghug Gambit

Postby Zosimus » 31 Aug 2016, 13:50

appleseedy wrote:assuming that you know Frances moves after his initial overconfidence yes I think that solution works though is no better than the first solution because once the Fleet reaches North Africa coast the next turn the position is essentially identical

Allied Fleets occupy Naples Ionian Sea and Tunis, French Fleets occupy NaF/Gulf of Lyons and Western Med. Identical to the solution posted?

Once this position is reached the game will proceed until the allies guess wrong and France wins anyway if he hides his moves

I disagree.

We assume that France is still broadcasting his moves and we assume that France has a fleet in Tyrrhenian Sea, West Mediterranean, and Mid-Atlantic Ocean while AR have a fleet in Tunis, in Naples, and in the Ionian Sea.

Obviously, France will attempt to move Mid-Atlantic into North Africa. However, what will he do with the fleets in the other two provinces? As long as you know (or guess right) France will be dislodged.

Let us dispense with the least likely scenario first:

Order Resolutions

FRANCE
Mid-Atlantic Ocean MOVE North Africa -> resolved
Western Mediterranean SUPPORT Tyrrhenian Sea to HOLD -> Supported unit has failed
Tyrrhenian Sea HOLD -> Dislodged by 'f ion - tyn'

AUSTRIA
Tunisia SUPPORT Ionian Sea to Tyrrhenian Sea -> resolved

RUSSIA
Naples SUPPORT Ionian Sea to Tyrrhenian Sea -> resolved
Ionian Sea MOVE Tyrrhenian Sea -> resolved

====================================================
Nor is the following scenario superior:

Order Resolutions

FRANCE
Mid-Atlantic Ocean MOVE North Africa -> resolved
Western Mediterranean SUPPORT Tyrrhenian Sea to Tunisia -> resolved
Tyrrhenian Sea MOVE Tunisia -> resolved

AUSTRIA
Tunisia SUPPORT Ionian Sea to Tyrrhenian Sea -> Dislodged by 'f tyn - tun'

RUSSIA
Naples SUPPORT Ionian Sea to Tyrrhenian Sea -> resolved
Ionian Sea MOVE Tyrrhenian Sea -> resolved
====================================================
But what if France tries to support Tyrrhenian Sea into Tunis? This can still be defeated, but requires different orders:

Order Resolutions

FRANCE
Mid-Atlantic Ocean MOVE North Africa -> resolved
Western Mediterranean SUPPORT Tyrrhenian Sea to Tunisia -> Supported unit has failed
Tyrrhenian Sea MOVE Tunisia -> Dislodged by 'f nap - tyn'

AUSTRIA
Tunisia SUPPORT Naples to Tyrrhenian Sea -> resolved

RUSSIA
Naples MOVE Tyrrhenian Sea -> resolved
Ionian Sea SUPPORT Tunisia to HOLD -> resolved
======================================================
In all three cases, the French fleet in the Tyrrhenian Sea is dislodged and a true stalemate line is achieved.
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Re: Diplomacy Puzzle - The Ghug Gambit

Postby gsmx » 31 Aug 2016, 16:52

I think the first one is your only true stalemate since you can backfill Ion.

With the other two you end up with him having a 50:50 chance to take Tyr Sea back or take Ion since that that point there's no way he's still forecasting his moves. If ion supports Tun then you're vulnerable to GoL/Wmd taking Tyr Sea with NAF cutting Tun support. If you support TYS then you but Tun in jeopardy. As previously mentioned, you still need a fleet in Naples to get the stalemate.
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Re: Diplomacy Puzzle - The Ghug Gambit

Postby Zosimus » 31 Aug 2016, 19:24

gsmx wrote:I think the first one is your only true stalemate since you can backfill Ion.

With the other two you end up with him having a 50:50 chance to take Tyr Sea back or take Ion since that that point there's no way he's still forecasting his moves. If ion supports Tun then you're vulnerable to GoL/Wmd taking Tyr Sea with NAF cutting Tun support. If you support TYS then you but Tun in jeopardy. As previously mentioned, you still need a fleet in Naples to get the stalemate.

Yes, you're right. I have just been playing an intense build-anywhere variant and I thought that Austria could take Bulgaria(sc) and build a fleet in Rome to shore up his defenses. I realize now that this is not possible in stock Diplomacy. My apologies.
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