Mafia CLXI: A Completely Normal Game of Mafia - Scum Win!

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Re: A Completely Normal Game of Mafia

Postby GPD » 19 Jun 2017, 15:04

@Nanook and JoeH:
Guys, for what it's worth, my view on your head to head is town v town. I find myself believing both your "cases", and believe that you each respectively believe them. You emotions are both coming across as frustrated definitely, and are both on the attack, with no real sense of defensiveness. It reminds me of the head to head I had with SW, but obviously on a smaller scale than yours.

I also came to the conclusion that (having voted for him twice) I now am of the opinion that MHS is also town. This is on the basis of his vote for ZZ, and being a key component of that. I hear the arguments of "bussing", which I think I know what it means), but I don't see this, as he had other options, and with a track record of changing his vote during the last hour, he could easily have made the excuse to go somewhere else. There is the view out there also that sjg was instrumental in the ZZ vote. This seems less clear to me. So that leaves me looking again at SF and Condude. This is why I asked for MHS's reasoning for his Condude vote. While there is no real evidence to support a condude vote, it is reasonable to assume that if he were mafia, he would have thought of most of the traps/slips he could fall into and avoid them.

So my question to you both is this: Assuming you are both town (which you may find hard to do atm), and I am town (which I am), then who is mafia? If you can both agree on that, then I personally believe we have the answer.
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Re: A Completely Normal Game of Mafia

Postby nanooktheeskimo » 19 Jun 2017, 16:28

Well, you probably won't like my answer. If Joe is town, then my next best guess is you, GPD. I'll play along with your thought experiment here though...

If we accept you and Joe as town. Then...I dunno, maybe an SJG/smith pairing? If you're both town, then I would guess it's a two on situation, since I don't see condude as being scummy. So in a two on ZZ situation, I think SJG and smith probably make the most sense, because they're the critical votes to get ZZ lynched (SJG first to start the wagon, smith sealing the deal). But that takes a stretch to believe when D1 is taken into consideration.

So in your hypothetical, that's probably what I'd come up. At least, off the top of my head. How likely is it that they're the scum though? I mean...I could be wrong here, but I kind of don't see that as very likely? If that's the team, they've done a great job disguising it, in my opinion.

No, I think it's much more likely that at least one of you and Joe is the scum. Possibly both, but I think definitely one.
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Re: A Completely Normal Game of Mafia

Postby GPD » 19 Jun 2017, 16:48

nanooktheeskimo wrote:Well, you probably won't like my answer. If Joe is town, then my next best guess is you, GPD. I'll play along with your thought experiment here though...

If we accept you and Joe as town. Then...I dunno, maybe an SJG/smith pairing? If you're both town, then I would guess it's a two on situation, since I don't see condude as being scummy. So in a two on ZZ situation, I think SJG and smith probably make the most sense, because they're the critical votes to get ZZ lynched (SJG first to start the wagon, smith sealing the deal). But that takes a stretch to believe when D1 is taken into consideration.

So in your hypothetical, that's probably what I'd come up. At least, off the top of my head. How likely is it that they're the scum though? I mean...I could be wrong here, but I kind of don't see that as very likely? If that's the team, they've done a great job disguising it, in my opinion.

No, I think it's much more likely that at least one of you and Joe is the scum. Possibly both, but I think definitely one.

Sorry to be a bore, but please can you spell out for me the logic of why it would/might be logical for "seal the deal" as you put it? I would expect it would only make sense if they thought the town was onto them as a group? Hence they vote for one of their own to throw people off the scent. There didn't really seem to be that in the last phase of D2? There were cases against each of them individually, but nothing linking them? What is the subtlety I am missing?

Regarding condude, I said myself he does not appear to be scummy, in as many words, but do you accept that he is a good enough player to fool everyone?
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Re: A Completely Normal Game of Mafia

Postby JoeHoya06 » 19 Jun 2017, 16:52

nanooktheeskimo wrote:I had been scumreading both Jordan and SW for longer than you had, and making both cases in thread for longer than you had. So I'm not really sure you want to go down that road.


You also had like a hundred posts under your belt before I even started to read the thread, so of course you would. And do you really want to brag about how long you scumread two Confirmed Townspeople?

nanooktheeskimo wrote:...have you?? This is ridiculous criteria. One, just because I'm active a bunch doesn't mean I'm a town leader, it means I'm active a bunch. Activity is NAI, generally speaking. Two, exactly one person has led a lynch against a scum player, and that's SJG (maybe you can extend this to shadow, given that it was her interactions with ZZ that really got the ball rolling). Does that make the rest of us scum? I think I see the point you're trying to make here, but it's not a good one, and it holds me to an impossibly high standard.


No, it doesn't. It holds you to the standard of "if you're gonna say someone is scum, put your vote on them." To use a word that I still don't think you guys are using correctly, don't throw shade if you're not gonna throw down a vote. You spent the entirety of D1 investigating and saying you didn't like this or that, but then only voting for people that others had already voted for.

nanooktheeskimo wrote:
JOE wrote:Meanwhile, Nanook's process...doesn't exist. It's an unassailable answer because there's no readable trail of facts that led to it, just his unknowable-to-anyone-else gut feeling.

This is demonstrably wrong and insulting. I have spent a ton of time building cases against people this game, and to suggest otherwise is insulting.


That is a reference to your process as to why you didn't vote for ZZ and you goddamn know it. Don't make it out like I'm insulting you when I clearly wasn't.

GPD, I don't have a ton of time right now, but I would say that I've found Smith townish in his posts, but scummy in his voting, and I posited that he and Nanook could be partners. I also think either SJG or Condude could be mafia, with Condude in front by a hair, but that is most likely because he has gone on the record as agreeing with Nanook's patently incorrect voting "analysis" post.
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Re: A Completely Normal Game of Mafia

Postby sjg11 » 19 Jun 2017, 16:54

condude1 wrote:I'm really liking Nanook's most recent analysis. I've been trying to decide on Nanook vs. Joe today. Sjg's case on nanook is compelling, however, it has one major flaw IMO. It's based entirely on narrative. While I see that the fact that nanook had differential reads on Sjg and ZZ, and ZZ was scum, and I can clearly see how scumNanook does what Nanook did here, I can also see how townNanook did the same. I think it's scummy, but his recent vote analysis is good, and offsets that a bit. I came to a similar conclusion, except had him as one of the two likely scums.

What specifically did nanook do differently in his analysis than Joe did in his earlier analysis? What specifically was town indicative within nanook's analysis?
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Re: A Completely Normal Game of Mafia

Postby sjg11 » 19 Jun 2017, 16:55

mhsmith0 wrote:http://playdiplomacy.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=306&t=55651&start=1370#p905558


sjg11 wrote:Alright guys we'll discuss my condude case in more detail tomorrow, for now I need to spend my time trying to move things elsewhere and I think ZZ is a better lynch than SW or SF or smith and I think I can actually get him lynched.

sjg, what happened to your condude case / read?

I re-read the conversation and figured I was misunderstanding what condude was actually saying.
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Re: A Completely Normal Game of Mafia

Postby sjg11 » 19 Jun 2017, 16:57

JoeHoya06 wrote:QUESTION FOR THE TOWN: Is it likely someone writes a manifesto the length of Nanook's voting "analysis" that comes to such a hideously erroneous conclusion if they're just misinterpreting data? I feel like it's probably not, so now I feel like I also know that Nanook is mafia. And it tells me that the theory of StarWatcher being night killed to set up someone off the ZZ wagon is probably accurate, since that's what Nanook is trying to do.

It's very possible for someone to come to a wrong conclusion having written the amount that nanook did. It happens all the time.
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Re: A Completely Normal Game of Mafia

Postby sjg11 » 19 Jun 2017, 17:08

shadowfriend1 wrote:For many reasons, I would be so suspicious of sjg today had he not started the Zoomzip lynch yesterday.
-He looks like the perfect buddy for ZZ from my analysis of Zoomzip's posts.
-Smith's suspicions were the same Day 1. I though this might be a frame, but wouldn't sjg have noticed that something was off if he were being framed? I say this because I distinctly recall an occasion where scum were trying to do this to me, and it was infuriatingly obvious.
-Why was Starwatcher nightkilled last night? Wouldn't sjg have been a much better kill? Possibly a frame, it's hard to know.
-I really dislike his case on nanook.
-He made a completely unexplained vote on me yesterday that didn't really have anything to do with me being scum.

1. Why can nanook/Joe/smith/GPD/condude not be ZZ buddies?
2. It wasn't a frame. Killing someone like asu isn't my style as scum. If I had been scum someone like ZZ or nanook would have died Night One, particularly in a game advertised as completely vanilla. Sjg likes a leaderless town when he's Mafia. Asu has plenty of qualities but he isn't a leader. So no the asu kill wasn't a frame so I didn't feel like I was being framed at all. Moreover, knowing ZZ as well as I do, I can pretty much bet his reasons for killing asu were that he was a low info kill with a good scumdar. This was literally the main reason for my ZZ vote yesterday, the asu kill just fit his scum meta SO well.
3. SW was probably more likely to be townread today than I was. I'm mean ol' sjg after all. Besides, if I'm right about nanook, he probably wants me around so the "why is he still here" questions aren't asked about him. Generally that's not really my style as Mafia but the asu kill suggests it's what the Mafia are going for here.
4. Magnificent. I'll accept there's a lot of voting data and narrative there. Now what about it's scummy?
5. Ummm... bullshit. It WAS explained. Voting data suggested that there was at least one Mafia among condude, ZZ and you. I wasn't reading you or smith either way so on voting data odds, as the two relevant candidates, you were the better option. It wasn't explained at the time because I had 30 seconds to make a post and run. Seriously, how the fuck is this a scumtell?

My heart wants to lynch sjg, but I've hesitated on this case all day because he'd probably only have needed one more mislynch to have the game yesterday as scum (assuming 3 scum). Then again, when you think about it, Zoomzip was sort of damaged goods after pretty much failing to be convincingly offended by me.

If I'm lynched today after leading a lynch on a Mafia yesterday you're going to be dealing with a really grumpy sjg in the AAR. Be a sweetie and lynch nanook on Day Four if that's what you're going to do today. Otherwise it'll be an incredibly grumpy sjg in the AAR.

sjg. I don't think we have grounds to town clear him for voting Zoomzip. Everything else makes me want to lynch him.

*Sighs*, of course scum sjg pushes through a bus on a teammate when he doesn't have to the day before LYLO rather than disappearing and then pushing something on ZZ on Day Three which guarantees a town clear on one of them (or just goes for a town lynch on a Day Three) and instead, knowing he has a reputation for bussing people so is held to a different standard on these matters, pushes through a last minute ZZ lynch before then going after the most active town player rather than ganging up on Joe today because...?

Like I said, a REALLY grumpy sjg in the AAR.
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Re: A Completely Normal Game of Mafia

Postby JoeHoya06 » 19 Jun 2017, 17:09

Something for while I'm out: Nanook, your vote "analysis" consists of relying on assumptions about where the votes would be among one or two remaining scum, and then trying to figure out who makes sense as partners.

How about instead you tell me and everyone else why scumJoe votes in such a way? It just looks like a lot of "well if he voted here, then with so-and-so voting here, that makes more sense than..." Explain why those votes make me scummy, because I'm not getting it. Then again, that could be because I know I'm not.
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Re: A Completely Normal Game of Mafia

Postby sjg11 » 19 Jun 2017, 17:15

nanooktheeskimo wrote:@shadow: his case against condude, mostly. I thought the jump to ZZ was kind of opportunistic too. I feel like most of his posts fall into the "active lurking" category a bit, but I won't stick by that too hard without rereading him. Really dislike his condude case, it feels like a huge reach, although I guess SJG picking up on one thing and not letting go of it regardless of whether it's something or not seems like it's in character for him, so I might be overreacting to that.

Nanook, this post doesn't really suggest a gut read to me. It suggests the case against condude is the main issue here. Actually on that, how was the jump to ZZ "opportunistic"? How is not just keeping my trap shut the "opportunistic" option?
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Oh what a perfect GM!

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